AHC North Korea

[La Rouge Beret]

With a POD after 1989 have North Korea possess a functioning economy. This does not necessarily mean that South Korea has to do worse, merely North Korea is not as bad as the present.

Bonus points awarded if the Kim dynasty remains in power.

 

[Maeglin]

Easy. OTL until the mid-1970s (when they were level with South Korea, or even slightly wealthier), and have them avoid the Juche craziness.

Edit: Ah, I see the POD is after 1989.

 

[Richard V]

Have Kim Il Sung be a bit more impressed with Deng and start economic reforms. It doesn't have to get far, just boosting GDP per capita 50% would get DPRK to Vietnam levels.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Yeah I was thinking along the lines of encouraging small businesses, farmers etc. Perhaps paralleling the course taken by the Burmese junta?

Additionally I also tried to consider how North Korea could improve their technological base? I recognise that the ability to reverse engineer computers / technology becomes dramatically harder from the mid 1980's.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Have Kim Il Sung be a bit more impressed with Deng and start economic reforms. It doesn't have to get far, just boosting GDP per capita 50% would get DPRK to Vietnam levels.

Actually I think a combination of Vietnam and the PRC would be where I envisage this TL North Korea progressing.

 

[ViperKing]

While it's possible, I seriously doubt there could be much difference from otl without some sort of major leadership changes at the top. Not necessarily the immediate Kim family perhaps but some of the other senior leadership perhaps.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

You need people who are secure in their position to create Chinese style reforms. The Chinese communist party has a strong institutional presence that protects the leadership from losing power and status even as a liberalized economy allows others to gain wealth, power and prestige. Does North Korea have this in place in 1989? Does Kim risk execution or arrest if power is passed on to others? I dont know the answer to this but I think this needs to be the case for an ATL to work.

By the time of the famine in the early 90s its too late.

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

Yeah I was thinking along the lines of encouraging small businesses, farmers etc. Perhaps paralleling the course taken by the Burmese junta?

That was my thought as well. NK is really a combination of every bad idea so any relaxation on the economy is likely to help. Burma before they eased restrictions would be an improvement of North Korea.

 

[Ivir Baggins]

Would the Kims formalising their effectively monarchial succession make a difference - ie making their monarchy official?

 

[Maeglin]

Would the Kims formalising their effectively monarchial succession make a difference - ie making their monarchy official?

The Kim dynasty goes beyond mere monarchy to Rule By the Dead. Kim Il Sung is still the (Eternal) President twenty years after he died.

 

[oreocruncher]

The Kim dynasty goes beyond mere monarchy to Rule By the Dead. Kim Il Sung is still the (Eternal) President twenty years after he died.

And this is why Chinese consider North Korea to be crazy nuts...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Get the various Kims to die/be ousted from power, and have the resulting leadership willing to listen to China urging them to take that path.

Or Kim is offended by something China says and invades China, which leads China to pour over the border and stomp the NK military flat, and then take the country over as a new province (or effectively so).

Have SK build a fleet of pirate TV broadcasting ships with tall antennas that can cover all of North Korea, and broadcast SK television programs. At which point the population of NK sees through the Kim slate of lies and overthrows the Kim regime.

 

[Alex1guy]

And this is why Chinese consider North Korea to be crazy nuts...

Part of the reason EVERYONE considers them to be crazy nuts

 

[oreocruncher]

Part of the reason EVERYONE considers them to be crazy nuts

Yep, but even China, the only country who still backs them (kind of...) thinks they're crazy...People know that the Chinese only stick with them because they feel like they have no other option...like America with Pakistan/Israel...

 

[Realpolitik]

Yep, but even China, the only country who still backs them (kind of...) thinks they're crazy...People know that the Chinese only stick with them because they feel like they have no other option...like America with Pakistan/Israel...

I think I've mentioned the incident when the Chinese aid workers were forced to walk back to China when North Korea kept the train.

The only reason they do it is because if North Korea collapses, they get the economic/refugee fallout.

 

[oreocruncher]

I think I've mentioned the incident when the Chinese aid workers were forced to walk back to China when North Korea kept the train.

The only reason they do it is because if North Korea collapses, they get the economic/refugee fallout.

Indeed, also there might be US base on border...which China really doesn't want...and some may also say that it might spark Korean irredentialism over Yanbian (which IMO is a piddly concern, because the people there apparently regard themselves as Chinese, not Korean by nationality).

 

[Realpolitik]

Have Kim Il Sung be a bit more impressed with Deng and start economic reforms. It doesn't have to get far, just boosting GDP per capita 50% would get DPRK to Vietnam levels.

The problem with North Korea pulling a China is that Deng could localize the economic reforms in places like Guangdong Province in case things went wrong, so that the Party could remain safe in power. China also had easy investors in Hong Kong and Taiwan that could not harm the Party.

North Korea has no such latitude or areas for control, and South Korea(by the 80s, the decidedly more powerful Korea), whom they have never declared official peace with, over the border. Loosening economics requires some flexible ideology and willingness to be a *little* more open. That's a death sentence for the Kims, who aren't interested in going to a less "Oh a God am I" style authoritarian system like Deng is.

 

[Richard V]

You need people who are secure in their position to create Chinese style reforms. The Chinese communist party has a strong institutional presence that protects the leadership from losing power and status even as a liberalized economy allows others to gain wealth, power and prestige. Does North Korea have this in place in 1989? Does Kim risk execution or arrest if power is passed on to others? I dont know the answer to this but I think this needs to be the case for an ATL to work.

By the time of the famine in the early 90s its too late.

Kim Il-Sung was the strongest leader in DPRK history and totally secure in the late 80s. Granted the country wouldn't be able to cope with 90s level Chinese economic success, but if we're talking about boosting their economy 50-100% this should be very doable given such a low starting point.

The problem was by 1989 Chinese reforms have achieved only mixed success. Tiananmen happened because urban Chinese felt left behind by rural income growth. It's unsurprising Kim Il-Sung would be skeptical of Deng's reforms. By the time the Chinese economy really took off he would be died and his successor was left with a starving population and the ominous example of the Soviet collapse to dissuade any thought of freeing the economy.

This is why I say Kim Il-Sung needs to be more impressed with Deng's reforms by the late 80s. Perhaps if the Chinese reforms started a little earlier. If the 1989 Chinese economy looked like the 1995 economy I think it would be no brainer for Kim Il-Sung to start an experimental SEZ of his own.