AHC: North Korea replaces Iraq

[loneranger]

So, basically I was wondering if it is at all possible for the United States to have invaded North Korea in 2003, instead of Iraq. Bonus points if 9/11 still happens, they still invade Afghanistan, and GWB wins 2004. Is this a viable scenario? What would need to be done to make it possible? And how would the war progress? How would other nations react? [Assuming it has the lack of international support that Iraq does. Questionable given NK's pariah status.]

Thoughts?

 

[jkarr]

So, basically I was wondering if it is at all possible for the United States to have invaded North Korea in 2003, instead of Iraq. Bonus points if 9/11 still happens, they still invade Afghanistan, and GWB wins 2004. Is this a viable scenario? What would need to be done to make it possible? And how would the war progress? How would other nations react? [Assuming it has the lack of international support that Iraq does. Questionable given NK's pariah status.]

Thoughts?

well as GWB never won legitematly in 2004 its already not otl

besides that i doubt unless they have undeniable proof north korea was behind 9/11, that theyd go after them over the lucrative iraqi target

 

[RamscoopRaider]

North Korea would have to do something really stupid

They would have to start it, Seoul is within Artillery range of North Korea, South Korea would not let the US start something with their capital at risk

 

[Lycaon pictus]

There's also the question of how you stop the Chinese from getting involved.

 

[d32123]

There's also the question of how you stop the Chinese from getting involved.

Why would the Chinese get involved?

 

[Cymraeg]

No chance. At all. The South Koreans would have a fit as Seoul would get shelled from the first hour of gthe war.

 

[Alex1guy]

Why would the Chinese get involved?

Because the Americans are attacking a country right on their border and will naturally be worried about potential collateral, spillover of refugees, the presence of US troops in what was a buffer zone between them and the heavily Western South Korea. Numerous reasons. They WILL be involved, militarily or otherwise, I can guarantee it. That is assuming the US ever gets involved in North Korea, they have absolutely no connection to 9/11 no matter what the Lizard Resistance Front claims.

 

[jycee]

Why would the Chinese get involved?

Because they share border, and spill happens. China would be receiving refugees from North Korea and be part of the logistical operation of said war in one way or another.

Also in paper China and NK are technically allies; though in reality China doesn't give a rat's ass about it. Still China could not appear to be weak.

 

[Patton]

The tricky part is getting China not to interfere, I really doubt they be thrilled to have US troops on their borders. However, for a reason to have the US invade there are multiple ways.
1. Have North Korea lanuch some attack on the South, such as sinking a SK ship or have them for some reason shell some Sk town like they did OTL just eariler.
2. Make North Korea's nuclear program more developed (or at least appear that way).

In both cases I think the South Koreans will almost certainly support the US. I also think that the occupation would be easier than OTL Iraq because their aren't any major sectarian divides in North Korea. Also I think that the South Koreans would take the lead I rebulding the North so it is ready for reunification.

 

[Lycaon pictus]

Why would the Chinese get involved?

If the government of North Korea did something stupid enough, like attacking South Korea or sponsoring major acts of terrorism, China might write them off as a dead loss. Otherwise, I don't think Beijing would want to risk having NK collapse completely.

 

[Alex1guy]

If the government of North Korea did something stupid enough, like attacking South Korea or sponsoring major acts of terrorism, China might write them off as a dead loss. Otherwise, I don't think Beijing would want to risk having NK collapse completely.

I agree, they would protest the United States lobby to invade unless they had legitimate and indisputable proof of an attack on the US. If South Korea is attacked, they might be forced to shut up, but even then they would look to preserve the buffer zone.

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Is it possible that the US might be able to coerce China into helping them with the North Korea problem? I know China has a pretty shocking human rights record itself, but is there a way America and China could come to some sort of agreement or plan to remove North Korea?

 

[Bob the Great]

Is it possible that the US might be able to coerce China into helping them with the North Korea problem? I know China has a pretty shocking human rights record itself, but is there a way America and China could come to some sort of agreement or plan to remove North Korea?

Maybe if the US agreed never to station troops anywhere in Korea ever again?

And economic concessions.

 

[d32123]

Is it possible that the US might be able to coerce China into helping them with the North Korea problem? I know China has a pretty shocking human rights record itself, but is there a way America and China could come to some sort of agreement or plan to remove North Korea?

I think this is about the only plausible way for North Korea to be taken down from the outside in the next few decades. Even then there's the whole problem about Seoul.

 

[loneranger]

Maybe if the US agreed never to station troops anywhere in Korea ever again?

And economic concessions.

Wild-Eyed Idealist: Korea reuinified and demilitarized, both Chinese and Americans pull troops out as soon as the war is over and help front the hefty bill.

Jaded Cynic: China invades North Korea themself in order to keep the border in place, supposedly replace the Great Leader, but things remain largely the same.

Anyways, I would say that the nuclear option is a great POD for this - an armed North Korea is a scary thought, probably even to the Chinese.

 

[Airship_pirate1901]

Ongoing

A US invasion of North Korea would have the support of the UN,in that there is no formal peace treaty only an armistice in place. Technically that war is still ongoing so I doubt there will be much of a international uproar over it.

 

[The Red]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Another_Day

Despite the immediate threat of 'Icarus' being handled by American and British intelligence in the winter of 2002, the fact that North Korea had attacked South Korea with a giant death ray remained.

Naturally the North Korean's denied any knowledge, Moon was a renegade, presumed to be dead who merely happened to also have violent little fantasies that the Democratic People's Republic actually wanted to invade the South Korea. Yes of course their had also been additional members of the military in observance, but they had been hostages, begging Moon to stop. It doesn't work naturally, there' just too much invade suggesting otherwise. With the North Korean refusal to entirely open themselves to weapons inspection, the UN votes for military action.While large and well-equipped on paper, the North Korean army suffers from various supply and maintenance issues from the offset. The Chinese have left them to their fate, sacrificing their extraordinary growth to save a tiny post-war relic wasn't given serious consideration. The Russians, well, they're on the other side this time.

Despite fears that the North Koreans had more death rays, they never appear. Whilst many North Korean officials did have knowledge of Moon's plans, they lack the ability or the time to put Icarus 2 in orbit, they're Chemical and Biological stockpiles still work wonderfully however. Casualties are horrific, nukes are hinted at and secretly prepared but gracefully are never launched. The speedy UN invasion from the east out of Russia and the south from the 38th parallel, quickly strangled the North Korean economy. With most soldiers at the front, there aren't the numbers to deal with the increasing starving mobs of civilians. Reform minded officers who don't want to see their nation turned into glass form a convenient alliance with those who don't wish to be strung up on lamp posts. Kim Jong Il has a final 'heart attack', unconditional surrender follows.

By December 2004 the recounts continue to go on in Ohio but most Democrats are beginning to come round to the reality that they've just missed out once more. Bush's 'Mission Accomplished' speech on return from the now reunited Korean peninsula would be viewed upon as a crucial turning point.

 

[idonotlikeusernames]

Jaded Cynic: China invades North Korea themself in order to keep the border in place, supposedly replace the Great Leader, but things remain largely the same.

Anyways, I would say that the nuclear option is a great POD for this - an armed North Korea is a scary thought, probably even to the Chinese.

I think you're being a wee bit too cynical here, China has already repeatedly pressured the North to implement economic reforms along the Chinese model. Therefore any puppet regime China installs will likely care about implementing at least some economic reforms.
Also while China is hardly a champion of free speech and expression, compared to North Korea, Chinese style political and social controls would give the average North Korean more freedom than most have probably ever known.
The South (at least those generations of Southeners young enough to have next to no ties with the North) might also be shockingly with a Chinese puppet North Korea, since it would mean they don't have to foot the (entire) reconstruction bill.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

A US invasion of North Korea would have the support of the UN,in that there is no formal peace treaty only an armistice in place. Technically that war is still ongoing so I doubt there will be much of a international uproar over it.

Except that the UN authorization for the war only extends to defending the South's border, not incursion into the North.

I'd think that the most likely scenario for war, particularly a US led one would have to be a Northern attack on an American naval vessel. Stupid, but not necessarily ASB level stupid given some of the other things that have happened.

 

[Lt.Gen 767]

It would probably be better for the USA's reputation then the Iraq war. Even if people are against going into N.K. at first once evidence of their nuclear weapons program is found (I'm assuming that the program had started by '01), pictures of their prison camps and the poverty of the people are on the news every night the war will be seen as just.
This might provide a big boost to neoconservatives in the west. Maybe even leading to action in other place like (hopefully) Darfur or (hopefully not) Iran.