AHC: Non ASB Axis victory?

[KaiserCorax]

I've searched for many Nazi victory scenarios but I can't find any that aren't ASB.

Your challenge is to have a Nazi victory with the following results:

• Nazis capture Moscow and West Russia
• Britain remains an independent nation and is not occupied by Nazis
• Japan becomes a stable Eastern power and conquers all of the East Asian coast (doesn't have to take Tibet and West China)
• Communism, as a political movement, slowly comes to an end
• Nazis become the leading superpower in the world

You are allowed to:

• Have the Turkic republics in the USSR remain communist for a while
• Have Mao and the Communists remain in Western China
• Anything else that isn't ASB
• If need be, have Germany in a position to ally Britain, preventing Britain's part in WW2 altogether

Bonus points if you keep the Nazis from backstabbing any of their allies (Romania, Bulgaria etc) after WW2 ends.

Points so far:

• Hermann Goering dies
• Walter Wever lives, forms an efficient strategic bomber force
• Nazis perhaps get nuclear weapons and use them on Moscow

 

[gloster meteor mk3]

Would the nazis having the bomb be to ASB?

 

[KaiserCorax]

Would the nazis having the bomb be to ASB?

What P.O.D would you need for the Nazis to successfully get the bomb before anyone else?

I'd also prefer to not have the world obliterated.

 

[gloster meteor mk3]

Hitler not being antisemitic for one and not driving the German scientists away. The world wont be blown up as long as they are not used in western Europe. If Stalin dies under a mushroom cloud it would mean the death of world communism.

 

[KaiserCorax]

Hitler not being antisemitic for one and not driving the German scientists away. The world wont be blown up as long as they are not used in western Europe. If Stalin dies under a mushroom cloud it would mean the death of world communism.

So you think the only way the Axis could possibly win the war would be for a nuclear strike on Moscow?

 

[gloster meteor mk3]

It is that or use Chem rounds but that would mean counter strike by the Red Army so that is a big No No.The Germans could have Millions of men and tanks on the polish border and it would not be enough, look at the battle of Britain a man has nothing to lose when his homeland is under attack/invasion it makes him dangerous and unpredictable and being unpredictable makes it impossible to tell what your enemy will do next plus you do NOT fight both America and the Russia it means you won,t win at all.

 

[KaiserCorax]

It is that or use Chem rounds but that would mean counter strike by the Red Army so that is a big No No.The Germans could have Millions of men and tanks on the polish border and it would not be enough, look at the battle of Britain a man has nothing to lose when his homeland is under attack/invasion it makes him dangerous and unpredictable and being unpredictable makes it impossible to tell what your enemy will do next plus you do NOT fight both America and the Russia it means you won,t win at all.

Is there any possibility of not having Britain enter the war, and would this allow the Germans to defeat Russia?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

A good start would be to have Hermann Goering die and Walter Wever live. With that POD you get lots of butterflies that benefit Germany and could potentially end up with a Nazi victory, though it would still require a lot of things to go right.

 

[KaiserCorax]

A good start would be to have Hermann Goering die and Walter Wever live. With that POD you get lots of butterflies that benefit Germany and could potentially end up with a Nazi victory, though it would still require a lot of things to go right.

So if we start by having Walter Wever build up an efficient strategic bomber force, that will help us have an Axis Victory?

That's a good start, thanks. How would Göring die?

What else do I need to have an Axis Victory?

 

[Deckhand]

When does Goering die? My understanding was he was the one who held back Hitler from going to war "anyway", at Munich. Maybe with no one handy Hitler trusts as much as Goering, Hitler has a tantrum and gets the war he wants in '38.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Can you have a nonASB Nazi victory?
Possibly. But this isnt it.
Nazis as a (the?) Superpower wont happen. That IS asb.

The first thing youve got to do is remove Hitler. The second thing is probably not to attack the Soviets.

If Britain can be goaded into bombing Baku, and Germany never attacks the Soviets, then the nonaggression MR pact might well continue.


Japan winning against the US is ASB, so any 'axis' victory has to exclude them.

It might be possible for the Axis and ussr to divide continental Europe between them, and keep the US from fighting Germany (directly, at least).

But asking Nazis to implement sane policies is, well, asking them not to be Nazis.

Your best bet for 'maximum Axis' is probably a military coup, possibly after something stupid like a failed sealion attempt.

 

[King Augeas]

So if we start by having Walter Wever build up an efficient strategic bomber force, that will help us have an Axis Victory?

IMO it's more likely that the diversion of resources from tactical air support to build a heavy bomber force makes defeat more likely, particularly in France, given a late 1930s POD.

The OP's objective is really tough. He specifies a Nazi victory, so we've got to stay within Nazi ideology. That means expansion in the East, killing Jews (and anyone else they don't like) and war with the US if the US attempts to interfere, which it almost certainly will because it's not stupid.

This gives us four potential enemies to defeat: France, the UK, the USA and the USSR. While only one of these (the USSR) necessarily has to be an enemy, it's really hard quite hard to stop the others becoming enemies, particularly France and the UK, and it's a not a process that Germany really has much control over, given that she has to start acting aggressively to prepare for the war with the USSR.

I don't like plans that avoid war with the USSR, as, aside from the ideological constraints, my impression is that Soviet control of resources would preclude Germany becoming a "superpower", and, barring political upheaval in the USSR, Germany is doomed in an arms race with the USSR.

 

[NorthernFiend]

Give Ribbentrop the smarts of Bismark

Give Ribbentrop the smarts of Bismark

During the 30s he alienates Churchill and the anti-appeasers in the UK press and makes the Reds and the Jews the enemies of the UK. Mrs Simpson is quietly disappeared and Edward is king.

Nazis make sure European scientists are very at home working in UK, one step removed, but secretly working on their behalf.

"The British are a successful moderating influence" says everyone, including the fascist French and Italians, as the Nazis expand East and develop the V2 and Tube Alloys together

 

[Deleted member 1487]

So if we start by having Walter Wever build up an efficient strategic bomber force, that will help us have an Axis Victory?

That's a good start, thanks. How would Göring die?

What else do I need to have an Axis Victory?

Let's be clear the earliest the LW would have a functional strategic bomber would be in late 1941 and that's assuming they don't make the mistake of using the DB606 engine with the He-177 or have the dive bombing requirement. Having a functional four propellor He-177 would be very helpful from 1942 on against the USSR.

Goering could die in an accident; having him die in a plane crash in 1936 prior to Wever dying would likely butterfly away Wever's accident, as he would likely be 'grounded' and not allowed to fly for a while, thereby avoiding his June crash.

Having Goering dead would probably mean Milch promoted at the RLM, Wever at the LW. Fritz Todt is the most likely candidate to take over the 4 Year Program, which was Goering's entre into control of the economy IOTL; here having Todt controlling the economy pre-war would fix a huge amount of problems that developed under Goering's watch. At that point having Hitler actually listen to Wever after the Fall of France would be seriously helpful, as would Raeder actually working with Wever, thus ensuring a LW-KM cooperation during the war.

When does Goering die? My understanding was he was the one who held back Hitler from going to war "anyway", at Munich. Maybe with no one handy Hitler trusts as much as Goering, Hitler has a tantrum and gets the war he wants in '38.

Pre-June 1936 would be the best time.
My understanding was that Mussolini was the big reason that a deal was worked out. Plus the military was talking about toppling Hitler if he went to war in '38. There were other people to talk to Hitler as well, but I'll have to check my copy of Goering's bio tomorrow when I'll have access to it. I have a feeling that Hitler would find a new Goering to trust, whether it was Speer or Bormann, who would council restraint.

 

[DoomBunny]

I could probably come up with something, albeit very unlikely, assumption based and complicated, provided you hadn't added Japan. That's just adding a whole new level of difficulty.

 

[KaiserCorax]

If the Japanese do not bomb Pearl Harbour, and the UK (for whatever reason) does not get involved, allowing for the Nazis to swiftly invade the USSR, would that not make room for a victory?


Also, the Jews don't have to be wiped out - perhaps the Madagascar Operation instead?

 

[Julian]

Even if Nazi Germany defeats the Soviet Union, which is ASB in and itself (And even in the least-ASB scenarios would take until 1943 to achieve), American entry into the war is inevitable due to escalation of Atlantic warfare; a de facto stare of war already existed, and all it would take is one slip up for war to become official. From there's it's a simple matter of the Anglo-American Combined Bomber Offensive attriting the Luftwaffe into oblivion, destroying the German economy, and clearing the path for a landing in France on 1945 or 46.

 

[ryackov]

Even if Nazi Germany defeats the Soviet Union, which is ASB in and itself (And even in the least-ASB scenarios would take until 1943 to achieve), American entry into the war is inevitable due to escalation of Atlantic warfare; a de facto stare of war already existed, and all it would take is one slip up for war to become official. From there's it's a simple matter of the Anglo-American Combined Bomber Offensive attriting the Luftwaffe into oblivion, destroying the German economy, and clearing the path for a landing in France on 1945 or 46.

It's completely feasible. Many anticipated at the time the Soviet Union would last no longer then a few months during the initial invasion. If perhaps the Germans successfully cut the Russian armies off from the Caucausus in 1943 (which accounted for 50% of oil for the Soviet war machine), or lucked out, then the Soviet Union would be torn apart.

Also, the Japanese were alienated by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and if the Germans invaded through Poland straight into the Soviet Union while the Japanese invaded through Manchuria, the Axis could have won.



It's possible for the Axis to win. Alternatively, if a different but charismatic leader were to rule Germany.... and be content with Poland for lebensraum and ally with the Soviet Union... then WWII would end differently.

 

[DoomBunny]

If the Japanese do not bomb Pearl Harbour, and the UK (for whatever reason) does not get involved, allowing for the Nazis to swiftly invade the USSR, would that not make room for a victory?

Leaving aside the difficulty of achieving either or both of those, even 1 vs 1 against the USSR isn't a sure thing, though there's certainly a chance.

Also, the Jews don't have to be wiped out - perhaps the Madagascar Operation instead?

How does that help?

Even if Nazi Germany defeats the Soviet Union, which is ASB in and itself (And even in the least-ASB scenarios would take until 1943 to achieve)

A total conquest is indeed ASB, but a military victory is not, though it is still improbably, particularly with the UK and US involved in the war.

American entry into the war is inevitable due to escalation of Atlantic warfare; a de facto stare of war already existed, and all it would take is one slip up for war to become official. From there's it's a simple matter of the Anglo-American Combined Bomber Offensive attriting the Luftwaffe into oblivion, destroying the German economy, and clearing the path for a landing in France on 1945 or 46.

Not as straight forward or simple as you put it, but certainly a possibility.

Also, the Japanese were alienated by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and if the Germans invaded through Poland straight into the Soviet Union while the Japanese invaded through Manchuria, the Axis could have won.

How are you going to convince the Japanese? What are the Japanese really going to achieve by invading Manchuria?

 

[Deckhand]

Give Ribbentrop the smarts of Bismark

During the 30s he alienates Churchill and the anti-appeasers in the UK press and makes the Reds and the Jews the enemies of the UK. Mrs Simpson is quietly disappeared and Edward is king.

Nazis make sure European scientists are very at home working in UK, one step removed, but secretly working on their behalf.

"The British are a successful moderating influence" says everyone, including the fascist French and Italians, as the Nazis expand East and develop the V2 and Tube Alloys together

So Ribbentrop learns magic?