AHC: No Watergate; Moderate Dem in '76, loses to Reagan in '80

Cool. Do you intend to write a full-blown TL ?
I do have a distinct interest in the late '70s and early '80s, because that's when I was a teenager!

I'm probably going to let my Udall piece rest for a while. And, I tend to max out at about 3 pages, although often with accompanying photos and youtube videos.
 
I know there are plenty of "No Watergate" threads on this forum, but I'm curious what everyone thinks about this particular scenario.

If Carter never ran for the nomination, what other moderate could have filled the void and beat Ford (or Connally or Agnew, whoever), then lost to Reagan in '80? This is for a TL I'm working on with some very specific circumstances.

Also, for this scenario I'm keeping stagflation, Iran, and Afghanistan as issues in the 1980 campaign. I'm curious who of the '76 field besides Carter was the keenest on deregulating & governing from the center, even though I'm opposed to both of those things.

Thoughts?

I don't quite get why "no Watergate" is essential in this scenario. Carter (in OTL, with Watergate) could just decide not to run (or die in an accident, etc.). Another moderate Democrat might then get the nomination--and would if anything have a better chance of winning the general election than he would have had there been no Watergate.
 
I don't quite get why "no Watergate" is essential in this scenario. Carter (in OTL, with Watergate) could just decide not to run (or die in an accident, etc.). Another moderate Democrat might then get the nomination--and would if anything have a better chance of winning the general election than he would have had there been no Watergate.

That's fair. I suppose realistically there's no way to figure out who would be the front runner in a no-Watergate scenario, because there are so many variables at play.
 
There was a recession in 1975, which were we coming out of by the time of the '76 election.

But maybe any Democratic governor whose state is doing better than average or coming out of the recession sooner than average? ?
 
There was a recession in 1975, which were we coming out of by the time of the '76 election.

But maybe any Democratic governor whose state is doing better than average or coming out of the recession sooner than average? ?
This. I think the GOP would, on the whole, be favored to win the election, but the weak economy is one thing that could put the democrats in the White House.
 
From a depth of the '75 recession of -2.3 in the first quarter (Jan., Feb., March). Yes, that's correct, and a negative two percent GDP is a serious recession,

the economy actually did good in '76

1976
1st Quarter: 6.2 positive GDP growth
2nd Quarter: 6.1 " " "
3rd Quarter: 5.0 " " "
4th Quarter: 4.3 " " "

But jobs lag anyway, the economy is sliding back from what's probably too high a peak of 6.2, and then voters are just funky in what they remember. They just are, and that's not necessary a bad thing!


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA
(just hoover arrow over graph)
 
Why assume Carter wouldn't run?

I tend to think that "no Watergate = no Carter" is a little overdetermined here. Carter would still have run. And his winning the nomination had a lot to do with other factors (including structural ones) that had little to do with Watergate.

Still, even if he doesn't win, he's still likely to run.

Interesting point. But the question is: would Carter's image as an outsider resonate as much without Watergate? From everyone's replies and from more research I'd tend to say maybe, since the GOP was still perceived as mishandling the recession and the country was still reeling from Vietnam. It seems his taking advantage of the primary system was the main thing that gave him momentum over the other Dems in the field. Plus like @David T said, people were looking that year for a moderate Dem outside the Washington bubble.

But are Carter's chances as a dark horse in a Watergate-less timeline still diminished, though, or is @SlideAway right that the Watergate factor is too overbearing in my OP?
 
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