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With no PoDs prior to 1806 (and without touching the events leading to Tilsit), how can Spain remain both stable and an ally for Napoleon (part of his Continental System, etc)?

Can the fall of Manuel Godoy and/or the Abdication of Charles IV be avoided? If not, could the disasterof the Peninsular War be avoided? And I do realize the answers will involve the question of Portgual; if avoiding the Treaty of Fontainebleau helps, how can that be done?
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