AHC: No Qing dynasty

Well, let Li Zicheng survived longer and contained the Manchus to their homeland (at least in the OTL Heilogjiang and Jilin).
 
Well, let Li Zicheng survived longer and contained the Manchus to their homeland (at least in the OTL Heilogjiang and Jilin).
It wasn't Li Zicheng's death that let the Manchus conquer China. And technically the Qing Dynasty was declared in the 1630s.

If Li Zicheng and Wu Sangui had teamed up to oppose the Manchus, which is not that likely but still possible, the Qing conquest of China could still be prevented. But I think a better strategy would be Ming success against the Manchus in the 1620s, in the wars in the Liaodong Peninsula. That is more likely, because the Ming historical effort got bungled in the years before 1644. Yuan Chonghuan's execution eliminated the Ming's best general, but there's also the Ming failure to relieve Hong Chengchou which prompted him to defect to the Qing, costing the Ming their second-best too.
 
It wasn't Li Zicheng's death that let the Manchus conquer China. And technically the Qing Dynasty was declared in the 1630s.

If Li Zicheng and Wu Sangui had teamed up to oppose the Manchus, which is not that likely but still possible, the Qing conquest of China could still be prevented. But I think a better strategy would be Ming success against the Manchus in the 1620s, in the wars in the Liaodong Peninsula. That is more likely, because the Ming historical effort got bungled in the years before 1644. Yuan Chonghuan's execution eliminated the Ming's best general, but there's also the Ming failure to relieve Hong Chengchou which prompted him to defect to the Qing, costing the Ming their second-best too.
The Chongzhen Emperor was probably his own worst enemy,
 
The Chongzhen Emperor was probably his own worst enemy,

Yeah. Honestly, I consider him worse than the Wanli Emperor, who for all his--often severe--faults, at least knew how to reward competence, and generally brought his game face when the Empire was facing a real threat.

Though not worse than the Jiajing Emperor, who was apparently constructed of crazyevil.
 
If Li Zicheng and Wu Sangui had teamed up to oppose the Manchus, which is not that likely but still possible, the Qing conquest of China could still be prevented. But I think a better strategy would be Ming success against the Manchus in the 1620s, in the wars in the Liaodong Peninsula. That is more likely, because the Ming historical effort got bungled in the years before 1644. Yuan Chonghuan's execution eliminated the Ming's best general, but there's also the Ming failure to relieve Hong Chengchou which prompted him to defect to the Qing, costing the Ming their second-best too.

In the latter case, it seems like the Ming are going to be teetering on the edge of collapse at best. That kind of bad leadership creates more problems than can be solved by a few victories against the Manchus.

In the first case, just how many minutes does that anti-Qing alliance last after the Manchus are defeated? China was already falling apart at that point, no?
 
In the latter case, it seems like the Ming are going to be teetering on the edge of collapse at best. That kind of bad leadership creates more problems than can be solved by a few victories against the Manchus.

In the first case, just how many minutes does that anti-Qing alliance last after the Manchus are defeated? China was already falling apart at that point, no?
The Ming were weak but possessed considerable legitimacy. There were only two major rebel leaders in China in 1644 when the Manchus crossed into the mainland: Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong. In May when Li Zicheng took Beijing, his territory had been limited to Shaanxi, Shanxi, parts of Henan, and what is now Hebei. Zhang Xianzhong was more in the Hubei and Hunan area. While the Ming soon lost control of Sichuan, they maintained areas such as Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, and Yunnan until the Qing conquest. Even in the areas that the Ming lost, the situation usually consisted of the areas staying nominally Ming until rebel leaders came in, at which point local officials would switch sides. but if those rebels left the area, those same officials would declare for the Ming again. Outside of Li and Zhang, few areas spontaneously declared revolt and threw out the Ming. The Ming collapse was more of a North China thing, and not a total loss spread evenly through the empire.

The Ming loss in 1644 might be still able to keep out the Manchus if Li Zicheng wins against the Manchus, declares his dynasty, and consolidates his Shun in the north while the Ming maintain their control of the south if they can avoid infighting. It's true that Li Zicheng is basically a bandit, but if he gets on good terms with Wu Sangui, I think Li will soon get used to the learning curve and establish a decent state. Wu was an important and talented general who helped the Qing conquer China. Under Shun command, I think he'll be able to keep the Qing out of China. Remember that in 1644, the Qing would have been outnumbered by Li and Wu's combined forces. They have an army more professional than Li's, but they're working from a much smaller population base and they can't bounce back quickly if they did lose.

Overall, I think it's hard to keep the Qing out of China Proper. I think there's a chance, as I elaborated, but the events that occurred in OTL were probably the events that were most likely to occur anyways.
 
With any possible POD, prevent the existence of Qing dynasty.

Well if you mean 'any PoD' then there are literally millions of PoDs where you can prevent the emergence of the Jianzhou Jurchens as the major Manchu force, or stop the rise of Nurhachi (or similar) within the Jianzhou Jurchens. A charismatic leader like Nurhachi is central to the Qing story, as was the Prussia-like luck that enabled him to be succeeded by the equally competent Huang Taiji, as well as capable regents like Dorgon.

Attendant strokes of luck across a 30-year time period between the Ming-Qing struggle could have ended Qing dominance. A wider adoption of Portuguese cannons/muskets could be a game-changer, as well as a Ming strategy that emphasized defense over offense, and thus avoids the terrible losses at places like Sarhu. This probably holds even if the Ming itself falls to Li Zicheng's Shun.
 
With any possible POD, prevent the existence of Qing dynasty.

I think you should clarify it.
As WhatIs pointed Qing Dynasty is declared in 1630.
1. There is no Manchu state at all - You just need to Nurhachi was killed with his father. Without him Jurchen/Macnhu tribes couldn't create strong state.
2. If you want maintaining Qing but not conquering China, then best would be there is civil war after death of Hong Taiji Emperor.
 

CalBear

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The Chinese government would not be quite as much the paranoid, supremacist control freaks they are now.
DO NOT try to derail threads by inserting current political elements, especially of the flame-bait variety.

Political Chat exists for a reason. Use it.
 
DO NOT try to derail threads by inserting current political elements, especially of the flame-bait variety.

Political Chat exists for a reason. Use it.

Well when you come to face it, 200+ years of Manchurian rule and subsequent Japanese subjugation from 1937-1945 did leave a bit of a psychological impact on the Chinese people.

Just ask a Tibetan or Xinjiang Turk.
 
Well when you come to face it, 200+ years of Manchurian rule and subsequent Japanese subjugation from 1937-1945 did leave a bit of a psychological impact on the Chinese people.

Just ask a Tibetan or Xinjiang Turk.

Well in that case the Ming and Yuan Empires are really the originators of that. The Ming Empire had a veritable array of secret services through which to control the bureaucracy, and they were certainly the ones who really overthrew the pre-Yuan trend of increasing bureaucratic government in favor of absolutism.

I agree that without the Qing Empire Han chauvinism might not be such a force... but then again, it's not like the Qing Empire invented that stuff (anti-Qing forces did, culminating in the nationalism of Sun Yat-sen). With the massive exception of the late 19th century, Qing rule over the minorities was actually rather lenient.
 

CalBear

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Well when you come to face it, 200+ years of Manchurian rule and subsequent Japanese subjugation from 1937-1945 did leave a bit of a psychological impact on the Chinese people.

Just ask a Tibetan or Xinjiang Turk.
You know if you really want to unable to post for a week without all the drama you can PM a Mod and ask to go fishing for a week.

Nevertheless, don't let me stand in the way of your vacation.

Kicked for a week for trolling, attempting to derail a main forum thread into current political discussion, and general cluelessness.

See ya' in 7.
 
Anyway, is there any possibility of a native dynasty rising up to replace the Ming after the latter defeat the Manchu?

Well there's always the possibility of a native dynasty rising up to replace the Ming... certainly while the Ming were fighting the Manchu there were also peasant rebels led by Li Zicheng, who would eventually found the Shun Dynasty; there was also Zhang Xianzhong's rebels in Sichuan Province , who would eventually become the Xi Dynasty.

But for the Ming, it would be suicidal for them to have a list of priorities that put 'defeating the Manchus' first and 'defeating rebels' second, since the former was not inherently an existential threat, unlike the latter. So any Ming defeat of the Manchu has to begin with a Ming defeat of the rebellions first.

Long-term wise, of course the Ming is not going to last forever, so at some point it will probably be overthrown and replaced by another emperor... Chinese dynasty replacement generally occurs through 'elite coup' rather than 'peasant rebellion', however, and this is what makes the Shun (and Ming) dynasty origins interesting.
 
What about the Ming collapsing earlier, in the mid 16th century during the 17th century before Nurhaci turned a collection of Manchurian tribes into a force to be reckoned with. If a new native dynasty has established control over China then any Manchurian attacks will likely be blunted and probably lead to the Manchus become a Chinese vassal like most states within their orbit.
 
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