AHC: No President Madison

With the latest possible PoD, how can somebody other than James Madison succeed Thomas Jefferson as President in 1808? What are the effects -- on the subsequent eight years, Madison's legacy, etc?
 
Well, iirc his health was always indifferent, so he could simply die of something in 1807. In that case, presumably Monroe gets in. No sure what effects that has.
 
Its too bad the job of First Lady isn't going to get the Dolly Madison treatment in this TL

I agree his health wasn't great so that's good for the POD

I do wonder what effect Monroe would have running Mr. Madison's War. Would the War of 1812 be butterflied away? Probably, not but maybe Monroe's military experience will help the U.S.
 
Well, iirc his health was always indifferent, so he could simply die of something in 1807. In that case, presumably Monroe gets in. No sure what effects that has.
Not sure either; even if 1809-16 goes pretty much as OTL (war and all), that still means someone else is elected President 1816.
 
From what I recall, Monroe's chief rival in 1816 was William H Crawford, so I imagine it's him 1817-25. After that you probably get a free for all similar to OTL, perhaps with Calhoun as the fourth candidate. Of course, if this results in Henry Clay running third instead of fourth, there's at least a chance that he may get elected in the HoR, instead of Adams.
 
The big question is how does the War of 1812 go in a Madison-less world. Who does it make, who does it break? We could see a President Scott, Brown, Dearborn, Armstrong, Pike or Coffee thrown into the mix.

A Wilkinson Presidency would be rather interesting.

If the war happens and is an unmitigated disaster then we could see a resurgence of the Federalists. Maybe Clinton wins in 1812?
 
I think the War of 1812 still ends up ending status quo ante bellum, though the road there might look quite different. If I remember my 1812, you've still got some systemic problems with the preparedness of the US military as of the declaration of war that I'm not sure four years under a different president would necessarily clear up.
 
Does Madison die the Louisiana Purchase?

If Monroe is elected president in 1809, who is holds the critical roles of Secretary of State and the Secretary of War under him, due to him holding them both.

Could we see John Jay, come out of retirement to stand as President?
 
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