AHC: No Iron Curtain?

[Snake Featherston]

Probably need a negotiated peace in the west (General's coup, withdrawl to pre-1939 borders, rooting out of Nazi party) to prevent a Soviet Poland, though: if Germany fights to the point of collapse, the temptation to "liberate" Nazi-occupied Poland will be great.

Bruce

Not necessarily. In this case the USSR would probably try claiming all it did with the M-R Pact was gain the Curzon Line and not risk potentially starting WWIII over Poland. If the Soviets get the democracies to ratify their existing conquests, that all by itself would be an immense shot in the arm for the USSR's strategic potential. So you'd see a return of the Colonels' regime, but with a border further west than the OTL one.

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

Not necessarily. In this case the USSR would probably try claiming all it did with the M-R Pact was gain the Curzon Line and not risk potentially starting WWIII over Poland. If the Soviets get the democracies to ratify their existing conquests, that all by itself would be an immense shot in the arm for the USSR's strategic potential. So you'd see a return of the Colonels' regime, but with a border further west than the OTL one.

Hell, without the losses during OTL's WW2, and without garrisoning a bunch of puppets, you've completely changed the USSR's strategic position.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Hell, without the losses during OTL's WW2, and without garrisoning a bunch of puppets, you've completely changed the USSR's strategic position.

True, though the USSR would technically speaking be on somewhat-solid ground where Poland was concerned. The sticking point here would be the Baltic States. OTOH, I highly doubt after a bruising war to the last ditch with Hitler and his bully boys that the democracies are going to want to do this up to 11 with the USSR after that.

 

[B_Munro]

Not necessarily. In this case the USSR would probably try claiming all it did with the M-R Pact was gain the Curzon Line and not risk potentially starting WWIII over Poland. If the Soviets get the democracies to ratify their existing conquests, that all by itself would be an immense shot in the arm for the USSR's strategic potential. So you'd see a return of the Colonels' regime, but with a border further west than the OTL one.

Hm. On second thought, allowing the continued existence of a rump Poland between Germany and the USSR would increase the chances that the French and British would take the preferred (from the Soviet POV) option of keeping Germany weak and disarmed (heck, after the last run-through, perhaps divided as well) rather than rebuilding it as a (tamed) anti-Soviet bastion.

Bruce

 

[Snake Featherston]

Hm. On second thought, allowing the continued existence of a rump Poland between Germany and the USSR would increase the chances that the French and British would take the preferred (from the Soviet POV) option of keeping Germany weak and disarmed (heck, after the last run-through, perhaps divided as well) rather than rebuilding it as a (tamed) anti-Soviet bastion.

Bruce

All the more reason for the Soviets to go for this. After all Stalin in the end was for Stalin and the USSR (in that order), so from his POV this would work out quite nicely.

 

[Blue Max]

Recommending CalBear's Anglo-American Nazi War as post-Soviet collapse solution.


If the Soviets somehow lose against Germany, things get REAL ugly.


The heart of the question is going to be along those lines--the Soviets lose real hard, and the Allies manage to clean up afterward. It is going to be beyond ugly to deal with.


A PoD aborting Germany's war with the West would work as well, although there would still be an Iron Curtain expanding to the Baltic States, Bessarabia and Finland. I don't think those can be saved without a AANW sort of project.


And if the world is AANW looking, Europe is going to be an utter hellhole.