AHC: No GOP Obstructionism 2009

POD of 1987 - fairness doctrine. Once Rush and Fox News came to the forefront it became not only easier but in some cases require to obstruct rather than negotiate. RHINO is a powerful term in some circles.

I've poked around with this idea a bit but to be honest it's unclear to me how the Fairness Doctrine halts the rise of ideological cable news. It seems like there's so much latitude in the Fairness Doctrine that Fox would be fine. Hannity and Colmes would easily pass the requirements, and you could probably get away with a lot less. Creative interpretation of what counts as an "opposing viewpoint" is the stuff lawyers must dream about. Not to mention less clever tricks like bad timeslots for the opposition. There are a lot of ways to go.

And incidentally, I was looking for a more contemporary POD, as stated in the OP. ;)
 
Rupert Murdoch would "donate" to some congressmen and we'd see Fox News' content being 100% identical with OTL even with a fairness doctrine. Either that or some smart conservative, if any exist in the GOP mainstream could someday use the legal justifying that allows interventions like the fairness doctrine to make CNN/MSNBC make 50% of their content conservative. There's those 2 scenarios, or another one could be the fairness doctrine gets used to shut out the Bernie types from appearing on TV ever.
 
Biden said in the primary that he'd have picked Bob Hagel for his running mate I think.

Maybe Obama decides picking a Republican Unity candidate could be a good idea, and goes with Bob Hagel. Kerry asked McCain in 2004 so its not unprecedented.

Obama thus has more Republican base support and maybe he plays up more how the ACA was based off of a Republican plan and the GOP base as isn't into obstructionism.
 
Just as above, I'd be very keen to see your evidence of any goodwill that existed prior to the ACA vote.

The problem was the democrats had a filibuster proof majority and they weren't afraid to flaunt it. The attitude was to quote the presedent "elections have consequences."

Oddly enough if you want things to be better in Congress for president obama, Have the democratic gains in 2006 be smaller or give Obama smaller coattails in 2008. Avoid the supermajority, and thr GOP retains a voice in Congress, and the laws they pass.
 
Biden said in the primary that he'd have picked Bob Hagel for his running mate I think.

Maybe Obama decides picking a Republican Unity candidate could be a good idea, and goes with Bob Hagel. Kerry asked McCain in 2004 so its not unprecedented.

Obama thus has more Republican base support and maybe he plays up more how the ACA was based off of a Republican plan and the GOP base as isn't into obstructionism.

Innnnteresting. You know, McCain/Lieberman comes up here a lot but I don't think I've ever seen a thread on Obama choosing a Republican (I assume you mean Chuck Hagel). There probably is one, my time here has been spotty the last couple of years!

It does sort of imply that the Democrats move to the center, but that doesn't absolutely HAVE to be the case. Really good marketing could suggest something close to the ACA as a Republican starting point and have the negotiations begin there. With luck you end up somewhere to the left of OTL but with the GOP feeling a lot better about things. Not enough to go all in for it, of course, but maybe enough to not obstruct and to let marginal congressfolk vote their hearts, maybe pushing abstentions as was suggested earlier in the thread.

I don't know if it's an absolute rule that Obama/Hagel means a more willing Republican Party, but I reckon you've got enough AH points banked here to work out a reasonable scenario.
 
The problem was the democrats had a filibuster proof majority and they weren't afraid to flaunt it. The attitude was to quote the presedent "elections have consequences."

Oddly enough if you want things to be better in Congress for president obama, Have the democratic gains in 2006 be smaller or give Obama smaller coattails in 2008. Avoid the supermajority, and thr GOP retains a voice in Congress, and the laws they pass.

I'm not sure I buy this framing. I mean I see how you have a point, practically- if the Dems had done worse the GOP wouldn't have gotten frightened and existential and lashed out as harshly and as thoroughly and as destructively as it did.

But to say the problem is the size of that victory and not the completely inappropriate reaction to it is...eh, I dunno, I'll just ask you to consider whether or not you can see why I might find it disingenuous, before I try a metaphor I'll later regret.

I take it you're a person who's unhappy when either party tries to govern without the other, which is a thoroughly reasonable if increasingly anachronistic (but still reasonable!) position to hold.

But if you're interested in participating in the spirit of the thread (and since I'm the OP I get to say what that is! :p) you could ponder on a way to make the GOP's reaction to the force of the Democratic victory more reasonable.
 
Considering that the Republicans gathered around the time of Obama's inaugaration and made a plan to make him a one term president, I don't see much good will on their part.
 
. . . Avoid the supermajority, . . .
with the filibuster rule, 60 Senators is simply a bare, thin majority.

A big bold change would be to vote on the first day of the new Senate, on Jan. 3, 2009, that henceforth we'll going to operate per majority rule. And then, repeat the FDR game plan, no, we don't need Republican support but we are going to invite it to make bills better.

And then arguably, the heart of the 2008 financial institution meltdown, yes, we are going to bail out the same banks who got us in this mess, but then we're going to use Sherman anti-trust and/or new legislation to break them up in an orderly, legal fashion. "Too big to fail" will be a relic of the past.
Biggest stumbling block: If Germany and the UK are going to have mega banks, then by God, we are too! <-- this whole feeling and gut reflex (sometimes the gut's wrong, it's all about head AND heart)
 
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I've poked around with this idea a bit but to be honest it's unclear to me how the Fairness Doctrine halts the rise of ideological cable news. It seems like there's so much latitude in the Fairness Doctrine that Fox would be fine. Hannity and Colmes would easily pass the requirements, and you could probably get away with a lot less. Creative interpretation of what counts as an "opposing viewpoint" is the stuff lawyers must dream about. Not to mention less clever tricks like bad timeslots for the opposition. There are a lot of ways to go.

And incidentally, I was looking for a more contemporary POD, as stated in the OP. ;)

Well, I dont know enough about the Fairness Doctrine to argue the merits of it in and of itself. All I can say is that Rush emerged almost immediately after and I dont recall much of anything comparable before then.

As to the time of the OP, I missed that. However, I kind of feel like its asking what could be done to remedy stage 4 lung cancer when the best pod is never to start smoking a pack a day...
 
if the Senate does vote to end the filibuster on Jan. 3, 2009, it’s going to feel like a coup, even if it is just an internal Senate rule,

All the more reason to be centrist and middle-of-the-road on policy and legislation.

especially given Obama’s statement from late during the Democratic primary season that people get bitter and cling to guns or religion, as big a presidential blunder as Ford saying “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” It hindered Obama’s ability to govern effectively.
 
That gaffe was way later. And I agree that a smaller majority reduces overreach and gives republicans more reason to worry about getting punished at the polls.
 
You can debate whether it was the right move; personally, I think it was, because I happen to think that the whole exercise was one of futility in that meaningful health care reform in the US can only come from options that would be politically impossible. The Republican Party would have tarnished itself by getting involved with the strange ACA provisions on a point by point basis and would have been electorally dead going forwards, without much help being done.

Meaningful health care reform in the US, to the extent that it might do something worthwhile would be politically impossible, because anything that trips over the two biggest stakeholders who currently are doing fine and constitute the majority (Medicare recipients and lower middle to upper middle class people with good employer provided health care) would be punished with the fire of a thousand suns at the polls.

The best options I see for health reform would be either:

A deep redistribution of Medicare from an old age only system to a public one for all that would obviously mean lower rates per capita but total coverage. I don't support this, but it could work. Of course you tick off and with good reason people about to go on Medicare or who are already on it. Obamacare did slight amounts of redistribution from Medicare (those "hands off my Medicare" signs actually were not stupid; there really was a costing mechanism change that was meant to help pay for Medicaid expansion, and you can see why that makes people angry), and the backlash was massive. The Democratic Party lost the 45-65 vote for good, I think, because of that, between 2008 and 2010.

Or, you could do Obamacare but with Swiss style mandates and price controls. The price controls would be popular on the left, although it might lead to overall lower quality in the long run. However, Swiss style mandates (which include imprisonment, wage garnishings, and really stiff penalties in general), while they would get rid of those who just ignore it and pay the fine or slip through the cracks, would be massive unpopular on both left and right. The right would see them as abridgments of personal liberty way worse than the individual
mandate. The left might agree to an extent, but they'd be way more worried about who would be punished punitively, which would almost undoubtedly be young people and minorities who would for various reasons be less likely to comply (because they lack social capital that makes compliance and civic engagement easier), and would be caught up being punished by a system supposed to help them. This system would make the exchanges probably end up working and enforcing cost discipline on providers in the long run, but it would be massively unpopular.

A full NHS system is not really an option for a Federal Republic like the US in my view, even if it was affordable (which it plainly isn't). And if you did this, it would run into insolvency issues quickly unless you were willing to tell all those middle class people to drop employer provided coverage and move onto state healthcare (which would be politically disastrous). Total free market solutions would perhaps lead to lower costs (assuming the deregulation gets rid of entrenched incumbent protections in US healthcare law, which is a laughable proposition and will never happen) but lead to higher rates of uninsured people and would be very unpopular.

I agree because as someone who has good employer provided healthcare with no additional money taken out of my check I would never support any kind of system that would lead to an effective pay cut. Why would I? It would be going against my own interests.
 
Innnnteresting. You know, McCain/Lieberman comes up here a lot but I don't think I've ever seen a thread on Obama choosing a Republican (I assume you mean Chuck Hagel). There probably is one, my time here has been spotty the last couple of years!

It does sort of imply that the Democrats move to the center, but that doesn't absolutely HAVE to be the case. Really good marketing could suggest something close to the ACA as a Republican starting point and have the negotiations begin there. With luck you end up somewhere to the left of OTL but with the GOP feeling a lot better about things. Not enough to go all in for it, of course, but maybe enough to not obstruct and to let marginal congressfolk vote their hearts, maybe pushing abstentions as was suggested earlier in the thread.

I don't know if it's an absolute rule that Obama/Hagel means a more willing Republican Party, but I reckon you've got enough AH points banked here to work out a reasonable scenario.

I did mean Chuck Hagel. I confused him with Bob Gates.

It's not as if Obama wasn't already a person with centrist inclinations. Sure he was a bit to the left of Bill Clinton, but Bill Clinton triangulated pretty hard.
 
I did mean Chuck Hagel. I confused him with Bob Gates.

It's not as if Obama wasn't already a person with centrist inclinations. Sure he was a bit to the left of Bill Clinton, but Bill Clinton triangulated pretty hard.
On what besides trade were Obama's leanings particular centrist?
 
On what besides trade were Obama's leanings particular centrist?

-The ACA was originally a Republican plan (RomneyCare in Massachusetts, NixonCare, Heritage coining the individual mandate in response to Clinton's Employer mandate, etc)
-Obama wanted to cut the Corporate tax rate to 28%
-Obama's time as president was when part of the Bush Tax Cuts were made permanent
-Obama partially funded the ACA via cuts to Medicare spending (meanwhile, Romney was campaigning on undoing that - in fact that was the only complaint he actually made about the ACA)
-Obama despite being broadly pro-immigration still deported more folks than several prior presidents combined
-Obama was willing to cooperate with the GOP on a grand bargain for dealing with long-term entitlements issues (c
-Obama kept Republican Bob Gates on as Secretary of Defense
-Obama had Centrist Democrat David Boren and Chuck Hagel as top intelligence advisers
-Obama was reasonably supportive of fracking (with environmental caveats)
-Obama supported cap and trade (which was an early 90s republican idea to deal with Sulfur Dioxide) over more heavy handed regulatory policies

And on trade, Obama got more Republican support than Democratic support.

It's actually kind of funny. Trump in many ways is closer to the caricature conservatives had of Obama than Obama was/is.
 
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Meaningful health care reform in the US, to the extent that it might do something worthwhile would be politically impossible, because anything that trips over the two biggest stakeholders who currently are doing fine and constitute the majority (Medicare recipients and lower middle to upper middle class people with good employer provided health care) would be punished with the fire of a thousand suns at the polls.

...

Left out the third beneficiary, the insurance companies. As it became apparent how much cash the ACA would be directed through the commercial insurers it was clear why their opposition was notable by its absence. It was a hefty increase in volume accessible to skimming off the various fees and profits for administering the insurance plans.
 

Md139115

Banned
Let’s keep in mind that the famous obstructionist congresses were consistently re-elected for one simple reason: the people wanted them. Obama got epically tarred in the 2008 election as a socialist and a radical and a dozen other even more horrid things. When the ACA passed, even if it was a “Republican” health care bill, it still confirmed all that fearmongering to many. From that moment on, you had a substantial minority, not a majority, but a sizable enough number of people who were not going to vote any way that would help Obama. This then, is the challenge of a POD. Not to stop 30 obstructing politicians, but convince 30% of the population otherwise.
 
Let’s keep in mind that the famous obstructionist congresses were consistently re-elected for one simple reason: the people wanted them. Obama got epically tarred in the 2008 election as a socialist and a radical and a dozen other even more horrid things. When the ACA passed, even if it was a “Republican” health care bill, it still confirmed all that fearmongering to many. From that moment on, you had a substantial minority, not a majority, but a sizable enough number of people who were not going to vote any way that would help Obama. This then, is the challenge of a POD. Not to stop 30 obstructing politicians, but convince 30% of the population otherwise.

A hardcore ad campaign maybe?

The cost of media is actually pretty cheap in large parts of red America, and states like Kentucky and Arkansas enjoyed the ACA once you took away the label Obamacare.
 
That gaffe was way later. . .
Senator Obama’s statement about “cling to guns or religion” was the first part of April 2008.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/96188

“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said. “And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
And he is entirely right that we’ve lost a large number of good-paying manufacturing jobs and not enough has taken its place. It’s just a shame he had to louse it up by anything other than a matter-of-factly respectful attitude toward religion.
 
Well, I dont know enough about the Fairness Doctrine to argue the merits of it in and of itself. All I can say is that Rush emerged almost immediately after and I dont recall much of anything comparable before then.

As to the time of the OP, I missed that. However, I kind of feel like its asking what could be done to remedy stage 4 lung cancer when the best pod is never to start smoking a pack a day...

Yeah, Rush popped up then. Might just be the old correlation/causation chestnut, might be something to it.

The POD may be late, but the circumstances of blanket obstructionism are so specific you can’t tell me they’re a universal truth. What if different meetings are held? What if the dialogue in the room is more like the 2012 GOP after-action report? What if it takes them longer to come around to blanket obstruction? Or what if the fever breaks early? There are questions applicable to the time period.
 
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