Make it so Russia cant colonize the tatar steppes or asia. Could the tatar khanates survive?
AHC No eastward expantion for Russia.
- Thread starter EnvarKadri
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They'd have to be occupied with something else. Maybe something in the west like the Polish-Lithuanians and/or Ottomans and internal squabbles, and possibly China making incursions into Siberia. What we'd likely get is a strong Chinese, Japanese, and possibly Persian presence in Siberia. What's left goes to the remaining Mongolic/Turkic tribes (possibly a surviving Golden Horde). I don't see the Tartar khanates being a strong independent power, not while neighboring the vastly stronger Chinese, Japanese, and probably Mongolians.
Russia itself remains a backwater. Barely considered European. The closest Tartar states we get are the ones paying tribute to China, but eventually Europe might come knocking. Love them some resources.
Obviously history isn't going to be the same at all. Russia doesn't rise to being a great power like it did in OTL, though it's still a strong nation. The Russians may look for expansion into Anatolia or Scandinavia. Japan doesn't go on a land grabbing rampage in the Pacific with no Russian Empire getting in the way of their northern expansion.
Russia itself remains a backwater. Barely considered European. The closest Tartar states we get are the ones paying tribute to China, but eventually Europe might come knocking. Love them some resources.
Obviously history isn't going to be the same at all. Russia doesn't rise to being a great power like it did in OTL, though it's still a strong nation. The Russians may look for expansion into Anatolia or Scandinavia. Japan doesn't go on a land grabbing rampage in the Pacific with no Russian Empire getting in the way of their northern expansion.
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If the Lithuanians thoroughly pound Muscovy and other Rus’ states before any of them can go around forming a powerful enough state to challenge it, you could have Lithuania call itself the legitimate successor of the Kievan Rus’. Now just make this Russia have a more western focus and you’re all good. I believe @Augenis does something like this in his TL (The Silver Knight).
I did, but whether Russia (or "Russia") didn't expand to the east in my timeline is up for debate. You can call the Volgaks and their sort-of-Russian-Cossack-state-on-the-Volga a Russian state and see that it expanded even beyond the Urals and into Kazakhstan.
Russia not being able to colonise the east in most scenarios means the Tatar Khanates are doing more than just surviving.
Why should a country with barely any interest in the far north like China, an ultra-isolationist country like Japan, or a country periodically wrecked by nomadic conquerors which cared more about looting India rule Siberia be any more likely to rule Siberia than a country which apparently has spent the 13-15th centuries (and beyond) kicking the Russian states around? If the Golden Horde/successors could do that, then they are by definition a strong Tatar state (since Tatar will end up the main language used and Tatars the dominant ethnicity) which will dominate Siberia, since they have similar reasons to Russia to expand east. It makes sense to go kick around smaller Siberian groups for tribute. They'd love to trade with China too, and could act as a northern check on the (other) Mongols like the Oirats or Turkic groups like the Kyrgyz.
If China or Japan ever got Siberia, it would be part of some "scramble for Siberia" map painting exercise like the Berlin Conference. Although China in Outer Manchuria or Japan in Kamchatka/Kolyma area is somewhat more reasonable.
Or the Russians end up united under Lithuania. Or annexed for good into the Golden Horde/Tatar state. China has to deal with the Manchu, Dzunghars, and their own people so would be too busy to do anything about it.
Anatolia's on the other side of the Black Sea, how are they going to project much power there until much later when they can grab the Azov/Donbass region? Scandinavia, well, TTL's Swedish Empire (if it ever exists) would be a somewhat better match (although united Russia without Kazan, etc. is still a potent threat). Japan also has no need not to go into the Pacific. Even with Karafuto and Kamchatka, they still would want more oil, and claiming Pacific islands is always a great form of imperialism and making your country a world power.
And the non-Tatar part of Russia (including most of Ukraine/Belarus if they can grab it from Lithuania) could easily still be a great power, at least on the level of Italy. They'd have a lot of power in European affairs and still a large population.
Why should a country with barely any interest in the far north like China, an ultra-isolationist country like Japan, or a country periodically wrecked by nomadic conquerors which cared more about looting India rule Siberia be any more likely to rule Siberia than a country which apparently has spent the 13-15th centuries (and beyond) kicking the Russian states around? If the Golden Horde/successors could do that, then they are by definition a strong Tatar state (since Tatar will end up the main language used and Tatars the dominant ethnicity) which will dominate Siberia, since they have similar reasons to Russia to expand east. It makes sense to go kick around smaller Siberian groups for tribute. They'd love to trade with China too, and could act as a northern check on the (other) Mongols like the Oirats or Turkic groups like the Kyrgyz.
If China or Japan ever got Siberia, it would be part of some "scramble for Siberia" map painting exercise like the Berlin Conference. Although China in Outer Manchuria or Japan in Kamchatka/Kolyma area is somewhat more reasonable.
Or the Russians end up united under Lithuania. Or annexed for good into the Golden Horde/Tatar state. China has to deal with the Manchu, Dzunghars, and their own people so would be too busy to do anything about it.
Anatolia's on the other side of the Black Sea, how are they going to project much power there until much later when they can grab the Azov/Donbass region? Scandinavia, well, TTL's Swedish Empire (if it ever exists) would be a somewhat better match (although united Russia without Kazan, etc. is still a potent threat). Japan also has no need not to go into the Pacific. Even with Karafuto and Kamchatka, they still would want more oil, and claiming Pacific islands is always a great form of imperialism and making your country a world power.
And the non-Tatar part of Russia (including most of Ukraine/Belarus if they can grab it from Lithuania) could easily still be a great power, at least on the level of Italy. They'd have a lot of power in European affairs and still a large population.
On the other side of the coin- what’s the latest that Tatar opposition in the Far East (possible by a stronger Khanate of Bukhara or someone) could break Russian control over the region and push them back to the urals ? 1700s? Up to industrialisation?
A band of adventurers smashed the Sibir Khanate, so that's not too good of an encouragement. As for Bukhara (not really Tatar in the sense of Kazan, Sibir, etc.), they certainly might have done better. Central Asia isn't so much of a void (in the sense of a lack of state structures to oppose an expansionist state, like the Americas) as is Siberia.
Since when Bukhara moved from the Central Asia to the Far East?
Anyway, Russian conquest of Bukhara belongs to 1842-1868 by which time (and well before which time) this emirate was clearly incapable of pushing Russian Empire back to the Urals. Not sure how and why population of Bukhara became "Tatars" (FYI, the area is populated by the Uzbeks).
If Russia doesn't go east then Persia and the Ottoman Empire benefit massively. It might be enough to avert the collapse of the Muslim world over the last 200 years. If so the humiliation of colonisation is avoided. The Middle East is unrecognizable today, and likely very much the better for it.
Russian conquest of the Central Asia ended only by the end of the XIX and seemingly slow progress was a subject of many factors (including a relatively low priority), logistics being one of the most important: moving supplies in a semi-desert area was a fundamental task and even a relatively small force required thousands of camels to carry supplies for the hundreds kilometers (and, contrary to the "common knowledge", the camels also need to eat and drink which creates additional problems). For example, a total weight of supplies for Skobelev's expedition against Geok Tepe (approximately 7,000 people) amounted to 2M poods (1 pood = 16kg) which needed to be initially brought across the Caspian Sea and then carried across hundreds miles of desert. The camels had to be bought or rented from the locals which could cost between 60 and 120 rubles per month and expedition required 18 - 20,000 of them. During conquest of Khiva 15,000 camels had been lost and during the war in Afghanistan 60,000. You can figure out the difficulties related to assembling the necessary numbers in a specific region and associated costs. Comparing to the problems with "getting there", a purely military part was relatively easy.
I think ITTL Eastern Siberia and Alaska could even go Britain/Canada if things go like OTL...and no butterflies with Britain.
While during the reign of Vitold Lithuania came very close to what you described (Vitold was "protector" of Novgorod and even of the Great Princedom of Moscow and grandfather of its prince) and could became a center of the Russian unification if not a "series of the unfortunate events", by that time being "successor of the Kievan Rus" did not make sense even officially because Kievan Rus ceased to exist before the Mongolian invasion and the throne of the Great Prince of Kiev was second to one of the Great Prince of Vladimir (hold by the princes of Moscow). However, with the combined "trifles" like victory at Vorskla, established succession line (to his grandson instead of the OTL mess) and ability to break with Jagello and Poland (which would be possible if as a result of success at Vorskla he becomes both an overlord of the Golden Horde and a direct overlord of the Great Princedom of Moscow) the schema could work with a resulting "Lithuanian Russia" (or "Russian Lithuania", whatever you prefer
). Of course, the schema more or less kills the premise of the surviving "khanates" (which ones?) because the only meaningful one, the Golden Horde, becomes vassal of the "Lithuanian Russia" (as per agreement between Vitold and Tokhtamish) and this means eventual domination all the way to the Western Siberia (White Horde). OTOH, it may also mean a relatively peaceful annexation of the whole Horde instead of its OTL disintegration and piecemeal conquest and, what's most important for the region, no creation of the Crimean Khanate which was a pain in everybody's posteriors all the way to the late XVIII.
Well, on its own the Lithuania of Vitold was not too much of a "western" country so one may make any type of the speculations about the immediate cultural direction of the Russia-heavy Lithuania.