AHC: Nazis abandon Norway?

Da Pwnzlord

Banned
Does it make any strategic sense for Germany to continue to occupy Norway once France has fallen? My understanding of the reasons Hitler invaded Norway in the first place was because Norway was the major supplier of iron or to Germany. But usually in threads about the invasion of Norway, it comes up that once France falls, the issue doesn't matter anymore because France has ore mines itself to supply the Nazi war machine. After that, Norway was just took up divisions that could have been deployed elsewhere.


Could Germany withdraw from Norway in a way that didn't result in a massive loss of face, and what could the resources put into occupying Norway be used for? Would they do it scorched-earth style, destroying everything as they left and handing the Allies a massive propaganda victory, or would they try to leave a puppet government in charge that keep Norway out of the war or what?

POD no earlier than April 9, 1940.
 
Swedish iron ore, which had to come through Norwegian ports because of logistical issues, was vital for the German industry.
That aside, abandoning Norway would mean that any surface raider steaming from Germany is pretty much dead before leaving the North sea.
 
Does it make any strategic sense for Germany to continue to occupy Norway once France has fallen? My understanding of the reasons Hitler invaded Norway in the first place was because Norway was the major supplier of iron or to Germany. But usually in threads about the invasion of Norway, it comes up that once France falls, the issue doesn't matter anymore because France has ore mines itself to supply the Nazi war machine. After that, Norway was just took up divisions that could have been deployed elsewhere.


Could Germany withdraw from Norway in a way that didn't result in a massive loss of face, and what could the resources put into occupying Norway be used for? Would they do it scorched-earth style, destroying everything as they left and handing the Allies a massive propaganda victory, or would they try to leave a puppet government in charge that keep Norway out of the war or what?

POD no earlier than April 9, 1940.

It gave them a wider flank to send u-boats out to wail on British shipping, and made it much more difficult than necessary to supply Russia, and it secured vital resource streams

The only scenario I could see them voluntarily leaving Norway is Guderian in 1944/45 actually being listened too. The U-boats where largely defeated by that point as was the surface fleet, and continuing to garrison Norway was tying up 12 divisions and 100-150 aircraft that where enormously needed elsewhere. Guderian demanded that these forces, along with the courland stranded forces, be evacuated so that Germany would have something of a reserve to try to stop the hemoraging on the eastern front after bagration... Hitler refused at least 10 times, including requests accompanied by threats of resignation and saying the eastern front was imploding

Guderian at other points in his career was able to force his will on Hitler... but after July 20th Hitler became uber paranoid and couldn't work with anyone.

So perhaps the POD is that the SS discovers Stauffenberg et all and quietly rolls up the plotters... without that Trauma Hitler perhaps stays in his post stalingrad semi willing to listen to people mindset; still brings in Guderian as chief of staff (since Zeitzler was going to leave in conjunction with Manstein and Kleist in all likely hood or at the latest after bagration) and after army group center/normandy falls apart agrees to his request to withdraw from norway to plug the holes in one of his fronts
 

Markus

Banned
The ore was from Sweden, in winter it was transported by rail to Narvik, Norway.

And yes it made sense:

-the more suppliers, the better
-more air and naval bases for Germany, less for the UK
-the battle had been won already by Germany
 
Swedish iron ore from the Kiruna mine has a much higher iron content than French ore from Lorraine, namely something like 70% against only 40%. The Lorraine ores have never been high quality ores, thence the closure of the last mines around ten years ago as better and cheaper stuff became available elsewhere.
 
The only scenario I could see them voluntarily leaving Norway is Guderian in 1944/45 actually being listened too. The U-boats where largely defeated by that point as was the surface fleet, and continuing to garrison Norway was tying up 12 divisions and 100-150 aircraft that where enormously needed elsewhere.


Which brings up a very interesting question: How well could the Western Allies interfere with that redeployment?

Evacuating Courland via the Baltic is one thing, but evacuating Norway via the North Sea and/or Denmark is another. Would the WAllies think the opportunity is worth the risk? Would there be more bombing of Norway and Denmark? More naval activity in the North Sea? Ground forces diverted to Norway as the Germans withdraw?
 
Which brings up a very interesting question: How well could the Western Allies interfere with that redeployment?

Evacuating Courland via the Baltic is one thing, but evacuating Norway via the North Sea and/or Denmark is another. Would the WAllies think the opportunity is worth the risk? Would there be more bombing of Norway and Denmark? More naval activity in the North Sea? Ground forces diverted to Norway as the Germans withdraw?

Eh, I don't think so if OTL is any consideration... the Germans where able to ship the Huge (17k men) 6th ss mountain division out of Norway with no difficulty. The reason they could do that, was that it was arranged via land line telephones and not with enigma; that and the allies where very busy

Of course it depends on when Hitler makes the decision, which dictates the proximity of allied airpower on the continent.

Sending ships to interdict the Aalborg-Oslo shipping route isn't exactly one of the safer things you can do... it'll be mined, extensively... not only would Luftflotte V in Norway cover the evac, but if there was any Allied taskforces trying to get into the fight, home defense aircraft from northern Germany would be committed.

Plus the Germans would do the overwhelming majority of the shipping at night to reduce the risk of air attack

Churchill would certainly want to try once they got wind of it... good chance it would cost him some ships operating that far from home close to a lot of German air bases

Sending allied divisions there is a boon for Hitler... the allies where short on field divisions in 1944... in effect by garrisoning Norway he is transferring the problem to them (even if the allies use like 2 corps to hold the entire country, thats two corps not in France)
 
Which brings up a very interesting question: How well could the Western Allies interfere with that redeployment?

Evacuating Courland via the Baltic is one thing, but evacuating Norway via the North Sea and/or Denmark is another. Would the WAllies think the opportunity is worth the risk? Would there be more bombing of Norway and Denmark? More naval activity in the North Sea? Ground forces diverted to Norway as the Germans withdraw?


They bring them through Sweden, the transit agreement is still in place "officaly" and Sweden have little to nothing against Germany evacuating Norway (so Sweden could "liberate" it the next day) and close one more threat to Sweden.

Germany pulling out would probably be a quick operation where all port facilities and runways is destroyed after them, to deny any quick and easy British landings in Norway. Even a deal whit Sweden to take over and "liberating" the country could be on the table if Germany thinks this would delay any British landing in the area and believed that Sweden would remain friendly neutral (that we in fact would turn and join the allied camp 44/45 if the government felt Sweden were protected from immediate danger is a well established historical fact, one I don't know how much German intelligence knew about at the time).
 
Eh, I don't think so if OTL is any consideration... the Germans where able to ship the Huge (17k men) 6th ss mountain division out of Norway with no difficulty. The reason they could do that, was that it was arranged via land line telephones and not with enigma; that and the allies where very busy.


That's one division, not 12, and most of the population of Norway are basically Allied agents. Start moving the entire occupation force and the WAllies are going to learn of it.

Churchill would certainly want to try once they got wind of it...

That's why I think something would be attempted. The size and scope of what's attempted are the next questions. Even diverting a few USAAF and Bomber Command raids is going to make things nasty in Norway and Denmark. What would Oslo look like postwar if the docks were raided two or three times?
 
What would Oslo look like postwar if the docks were raided two or three times?

the urbanization and population boom in the 50is and 60is forced Norway to rebuild the city anyway. So there is some pre war houses (from the union time) that don't make it otherwise it's going to look more like now than not.
 

Markus

Banned
Take a look at the map guys. It´s ~80nm from the mouth of the Oslofjord to Cape Skagen. Stay just outside Swedish waters and the allies would have to go more than 100nm deep into the Skagerrak which is full of minefields and has shore batteries on both sides.

http://www.acscdg.com/
 
Take a look at the map guys. It´s ~80nm from the mouth of the Oslofjord to Cape Skagen. Stay just outside Swedish waters and the allies would have to go more than 100nm deep into the Skagerrak which is full of minefields and has shore batteries on both sides.


I'm not saying the WAllies would succeed or even make an attempt at a naval response.

I wondering what will happen, good or ill, if they tried something because Churchill is definitely going to want to do something.
 
I'm not saying the WAllies would succeed or even make an attempt at a naval response.

I wondering what will happen, good or ill, if they tried something because Churchill is definitely going to want to do something.

Sending the fleet there is not something I would want to do... there is a very high risk of losing or having ships critically damaged. I don't know what ships where left in the home fleet after D-Day; but I certainly wouldn't want to try that with less than 3 fleet carriers (assuming most regular AF aircraft are busy on strategic missions and supporting ground forces in Normandy) and even then its awfully risky for an expedition that isn't likely to be a net positive for the allies
 
They bring them through Sweden, the transit agreement is still in place "officaly" and Sweden have little to nothing against Germany evacuating Norway (so Sweden could "liberate" it the next day) and close one more threat to Sweden.

Germany pulling out would probably be a quick operation where all port facilities and runways is destroyed after them, to deny any quick and easy British landings in Norway. Even a deal whit Sweden to take over and "liberating" the country could be on the table if Germany thinks this would delay any British landing in the area and believed that Sweden would remain friendly neutral (that we in fact would turn and join the allied camp 44/45 if the government felt Sweden were protected from immediate danger is a well established historical fact, one I don't know how much German intelligence knew about at the time).

Transit agreement was cancelled in August 1943.
 
Bring in the RAF...

...OTL they did rather well at minelaying, as witness the minefield laid in front of the Channel Dash, when Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and Prinz Eugen went up-Channel. Nice one Admiral Ciliax!
 
Sending the fleet there is not something I would want to do...


Again, I'm not suggesting the WAllies send in the fleet. I'm even not suggesting that the WAllies come even close to succeeding in what they do chose to do or that the WAllies won't end up more damaged than the Reich. I'm only wondering just what the WAllies might try to do and how that could adversely effect the situation elsewhere.

Churchill is definitely going to want to do something as this "opportunity" resembles some of the other "opportunities" he fixated on in the OTL. The US barely avoided an Aegean and Adriatic campaigns while spending too much time and too many resources in the Italy campaign, so what sort of a diversionary clusterfuck might Churchill be able to ram through with regards to Norway? Especially considering Churchill's need to make good on his 1940 mistakes and the fact that ore is still moving through Narvik?
 

Cook

Banned
Again, I'm not suggesting the WAllies send in the fleet. I'm even not suggesting that the WAllies come even close to succeeding in what they do chose to do or that the WAllies won't end up more damaged than the Reich. I'm only wondering just what the WAllies might try to do and how that could adversely effect the situation elsewhere.

The Germans were able to evacuate almost the entire Fifteenth Army across the Schelde Estuary right under the noses to the Allies. I know the Schelde is a very narrow water crossing but it is also extremely close to Allied airfields; heavy interdiction of the crossing and the German withdrawal along the South Beveland Peninsular would not have presented any problems.

There seems to be an extraordinarily large number of lost Allied opportunities in the last year of the war.
 
Transit agreement was cancelled in August 1943.

August 43 the Swedish government declined to set new timetables for the "Permittenttrafike", that is the transport of German troops on leave, but the German red cross could transport wounded up until around October-December 43 in troop transports. All transports of wounded ended mid 44 (can't find the book about the red cross in Sweden during ww2 online so I don't know exactly when). The basic agreement about how the troops should be transported were still in place an there were examples of it being modified during the period (like the transport of the 163rd Infantry Division from Norway to Finland). I meant that as that the "official" treaty still were in place. Goods, food and (what some suspected were) ammunition transports were newer cancled before the mid 44 according to SJ cargo manifests (could be accessed in the Stockholm library as part of the public historical records). I think Sweden send a private apology for this to Norway 47 as I have a recollection of this being figured in media in Norway 2007 when it were declassified.

But what I meant is if Germany really wants to transport its troops home from Norway I doubt Sweden would say no and there were protocols of how such transports could be done still in place.
 
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