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With a PoD after the fall of Poland, how could Germany be in a position to invade the Continental USA a decade later? The invasion does not have to be guaranteed of success, but it must be able to achieve a serious beachhead (that is, no "U-boat lands 5 guys with flamethrowers next to New York and they burn some stuff before dying very quickly" scenarios)
Here's what I've been thinking might work:
Poland, France, Norway, Greece &c fall as OTL.
Construction of Bismarck and Tirpitz put on hold in 1939 for more U-boats (lets say Donitz convinces Hitler somehow).
USSR falls in 1941-2 in an AANW-type scenario, with the new border established roughly along the Volga-Arkhangelsk line. Many of the Eastern Front soldiers are left to occupy the territory against partisans, but the Luftwaffe can be (mostly) transferred out to oppose the UK.
Increased U-boat production combined with a revived Battle of Britain in ~1943 (the Axis side now boosted by effectively all the industry in Europe) causes the UK to quit the war by the end of the year. Sometime later a fascist-leaning government installed in London (German backed of course).
At which point, German industry is focussed on making Plan Z a thing (lets say 4 CVs, 8 BBs including Bismarck/Tirpitz), and construction of transport craft. Luftwaffe efforts go towards long-range bombers (Me 264) and jets. Panzers are given lower priority for resources.
Around 1947 the Russian partisan campaign finally wears out. While the fighting continues and a significant garrison is still needed, the unrest has mostly been squashed and forces can be taken out of Russia, either to demobilise or to be a part of the America Invasion Force.
At the same time, Japan gets even more bogged down in China and doesn't attack Pearl Harbour or the Commonwealth. Or the Japanese government falls apart. Either way, the US doesn't get involved (an isolationist can win in 1940 if that is necessary), so its navy is roughly the size of its 1939 one (can be bigger, but not the size it was in OTL 1945).