AHC: Nazi invasion of the USA by 1950

[BiteNibbleChomp]

With a PoD after the fall of Poland, how could Germany be in a position to invade the Continental USA a decade later? The invasion does not have to be guaranteed of success, but it must be able to achieve a serious beachhead (that is, no "U-boat lands 5 guys with flamethrowers next to New York and they burn some stuff before dying very quickly" scenarios)

Here's what I've been thinking might work:

• Poland, France, Norway, Greece &c fall as OTL.
• Construction of Bismarck and Tirpitz put on hold in 1939 for more U-boats (lets say Donitz convinces Hitler somehow).
• USSR falls in 1941-2 in an AANW-type scenario, with the new border established roughly along the Volga-Arkhangelsk line. Many of the Eastern Front soldiers are left to occupy the territory against partisans, but the Luftwaffe can be (mostly) transferred out to oppose the UK.
• Increased U-boat production combined with a revived Battle of Britain in ~1943 (the Axis side now boosted by effectively all the industry in Europe) causes the UK to quit the war by the end of the year. Sometime later a fascist-leaning government installed in London (German backed of course).
• At which point, German industry is focussed on making Plan Z a thing (lets say 4 CVs, 8 BBs including Bismarck/Tirpitz), and construction of transport craft. Luftwaffe efforts go towards long-range bombers (Me 264) and jets. Panzers are given lower priority for resources.
• Around 1947 the Russian partisan campaign finally wears out. While the fighting continues and a significant garrison is still needed, the unrest has mostly been squashed and forces can be taken out of Russia, either to demobilise or to be a part of the America Invasion Force.

At the same time, Japan gets even more bogged down in China and doesn't attack Pearl Harbour or the Commonwealth. Or the Japanese government falls apart. Either way, the US doesn't get involved (an isolationist can win in 1940 if that is necessary), so its navy is roughly the size of its 1939 one (can be bigger, but not the size it was in OTL 1945).

How does that sound?

- BNC

 

[RightHoJeeves]

Very, very unlikely. Once the UK falls even the most isolationist of American governments will engage in a massive military buildup to protect the homeland. Isolationism meant America First, not pacifism in the face of a credible threat to the US.

 

[Gudestein]

Hmmmm. Much more is needed. Massive Sea lift capability required. Bombing campaign will be inconsequential. And the US needs to remain totally unprepared for the threat.
Its very hard to imagine this way beeing succesful.

 

[ReconGuy02]

Someone replace it to ASB...

 

[Enigmajones]

Maybe if there was a devastating civil war in the USA for the 1930's it would leave America divided against its self and as a result the USA could either be overthrown or saved by 1950.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Someone replace it to ASB...

What's ASB about it?

Swapping Bismarck for U-boats isn't ASB. AANW isn't. Neither is beating the UK if the US isn't intervening. Plan Z was imagined to be done by ~1946 with the resources of just Germany alone. Greater Germany shouldn't have a problem doing it by 1949.

Massive Sea lift capability required

Is this possible to build up parallel to Plan Z? Or possibly have Italy building it?

Bombing campaign will be inconsequential.

How about using the 264s to target airfields and cities close to the front (like the LW did in Barbarossa?) or are the Germans better off focussing on carrier planes?

- BNC

 

[Enigmajones]

What's ASB about it?

Swapping Bismarck for U-boats isn't ASB. AANW isn't. Neither is beating the UK if the US isn't intervening. Plan Z was imagined to be done by ~1946 with the resources of just Germany alone. Greater Germany shouldn't have a problem doing it by 1949.

- BNC

While we all enjoy AANW its been established that the PODs were specifically crafted to create a Nazi victory scenario. As a result its not very realistic, even if its a good product.

 

[Gudestein]

What's ASB about it?

Swapping Bismarck for U-boats isn't ASB. AANW isn't. Neither is beating the UK if the US isn't intervening. Plan Z was imagined to be done by ~1946 with the resources of just Germany alone. Greater Germany shouldn't have a problem doing it by 1949.


Is this possible to build up parallel to Plan Z? Or possibly have Italy building it?


How about using the 264s to target airfields and cities close to the front (like the LW did in Barbarossa?) or are the Germans better off focussing on carrier planes?

- BNC

Maybe you should confer my TL, the Literate Fuhrer, and quite importantly, Johnboy’s The Iliterate Fuhrer.
Me-264 making a transatlantic bombing campaign? Even without opposition a massive airlift is required.

 

[Saint_007]

Plus, even Hitler thought it was unfeasible to strike the US before 1980 at the earliest, due to the lack of resources, industrial capacity, and preparation by the Reich - and that was in the case of a German victory in Europe and Russia. And this was a guy who thought Russia would collapse with one good hit.

 

[IntellectuallyHonestRhino]

This is ASB. The Germans could not conquer the Soviets, who after some conquests were their territorial neighbor. How, if they could not even succeed in Operation Sea Lion across the English Channel could they invade America through the Atlantic?

First, U.S. citizens are armed to the teeth. Expect extremely hostile civilian resistance.

Second and way more importantly, America had a larger industrial capacity than the Germans! America is huge. No way could Germany conquer the U.S. I don't even see a join German-Japanese invasion working.


Man in the High Castle is entertaining, but highly unrealistic.

 

[wcv215]

How does that sound?

Nope. The USN is bigger than the KM that you've laid out, even without a big build-up. And the Two-Ocean Navy Act will swamp that minor thing the Germans think is a "fleet". That's not even starting on the point that the Graf Zeppelin was a piece of crap.

But let's ignore that. How do you propose the Germans cross the Atlantic? How do they keep this invasion force supplied?

 

[Alex1guy]

Germany even in victory couldnt hope to match the US. The Atlantic is too wide to send and supply an invasion across, it would be a logistical nightmare that would never happen.

 

[SpicyJuan]

With a PoD after the fall of Poland, how could Germany be in a position to invade the Continental USA a decade later? The invasion does not have to be guaranteed of success, but it must be able to achieve a serious beachhead (that is, no "U-boat lands 5 guys with flamethrowers next to New York and they burn some stuff before dying very quickly" scenarios)

Here's what I've been thinking might work:

• Poland, France, Norway, Greece &c fall as OTL.
• Construction of Bismarck and Tirpitz put on hold in 1939 for more U-boats (lets say Donitz convinces Hitler somehow).
• USSR falls in 1941-2 in an AANW-type scenario, with the new border established roughly along the Volga-Arkhangelsk line. Many of the Eastern Front soldiers are left to occupy the territory against partisans, but the Luftwaffe can be (mostly) transferred out to oppose the UK.
• Increased U-boat production combined with a revived Battle of Britain in ~1943 (the Axis side now boosted by effectively all the industry in Europe) causes the UK to quit the war by the end of the year. Sometime later a fascist-leaning government installed in London (German backed of course).
• At which point, German industry is focussed on making Plan Z a thing (lets say 4 CVs, 8 BBs including Bismarck/Tirpitz), and construction of transport craft. Luftwaffe efforts go towards long-range bombers (Me 264) and jets. Panzers are given lower priority for resources.
• Around 1947 the Russian partisan campaign finally wears out. While the fighting continues and a significant garrison is still needed, the unrest has mostly been squashed and forces can be taken out of Russia, either to demobilise or to be a part of the America Invasion Force.

At the same time, Japan gets even more bogged down in China and doesn't attack Pearl Harbour or the Commonwealth. Or the Japanese government falls apart. Either way, the US doesn't get involved (an isolationist can win in 1940 if that is necessary), so its navy is roughly the size of its 1939 one (can be bigger, but not the size it was in OTL 1945).

How does that sound?

- BNC

The problem with all this isn't necessarily that everything has to go right for the Axis (for example, Barbarossa succeeds and the war in the east is NOT dragged into 1942, Britain makes peace in 1940, nearly all of the German technological quagmires go right, they get nukes first, etc) in a very limited amount of time, the big problem is that the Axis simply have no real motive to invade America in the first place. Italy wants a free hand in North Africa, Ethiopia, and the Middle East, Germany wants a freehand in the East and dominate Europe economically and politically with Britain out of the way (whether it be neutral, allied, puppeted, or conquered), and Japan wants a free hand in China and Asia at large. There simply is no reason for any of them to attack America, and even if they were at war, they would be playing defensive, not attacking across the Atlantic without the time to construct their own fleets to achieve parity much less superiority over the USN.

However since I believe in infinite timelines I'll give this a shot even though it's quite a stretch.

The German invasion of France and Norway don't go as in OTL at all. The German's avoid heavy losses in Norway whereas the Brits have a huge debacle including destroyers being misidentified by the Norwegian coastal artillery as Germans, hitting minefields, etc. This has the added benefit of tarnishing the reputation Churchill to the point he doesn't become PM. France goes differently with the BEF captured and the French fleet captured intact by the Axis. At this point a peace is reached in mid 1940. The following year, Barbarossa is a complete success and the Soviets collapse allowing the Germans to focus on Plan Z and the Amerika bomber project. With oil from Germany and Italy, Japan is able to largely tie up the Chinese front and focuses on modernizing and enlarging her navy. By 1948 the new Axis coalition including the British Empire led by Mosley and a returned King Edward the VIII declare the final crusade against Judentum and battle it out with the USN, the Axis achieving decisive victories and a successful strike against the panama canal splits the USN in half. The following year, Boston, Maine, Michigan, New York, Hawaii, Florida, and Alaska are invaded.

 

[Gudestein]

The problem with all this isn't necessarily that everything has to go right for the Axis (for example, Barbarossa succeeds and the war in the east is NOT dragged into 1942, Britain makes peace in 1940, nearly all of the German technological quagmires go right, they get nukes first, etc) in a very limited amount of time, the big problem is that the Axis simply have no real motive to invade America in the first place. Italy wants a free hand in North Africa, Ethiopia, and the Middle East, Germany wants a freehand in the East and dominate Europe economically and politically with Britain out of the way (whether it be neutral, allied, puppeted, or conquered), and Japan wants a free hand in China and Asia at large. There simply is no reason for any of them to attack America, and even if they were at war, they would be playing defensive, not attacking across the Atlantic without the time to construct their own fleets to achieve parity much less superiority over the USN.

However since I believe in infinite timelines I'll give this a shot even though it's quite a stretch.

The German invasion of France and Norway don't go as in OTL at all. The German's avoid heavy losses in Norway whereas the Brits have a huge debacle including destroyers being misidentified by the Norwegian coastal artillery as Germans, hitting minefields, etc. This has the added benefit of tarnishing the reputation Churchill to the point he doesn't become PM. France goes differently with the BEF captured and the French fleet captured intact by the Axis. At this point a peace is reached in mid 1940. The following year, Barbarossa is a complete success and the Soviets collapse allowing the Germans to focus on Plan Z and the Amerika bomber project. With oil from Germany and Italy, Japan is able to largely tie up the Chinese front and focuses on modernizing and enlarging her navy. By 1948 the new Axis coalition including the British Empire led by Mosley and a returned King Edward the VIII declare the final crusade against Judentum and battle it out with the USN, the Axis achieving decisive victories and a successful strike against the panama canal splits the USN in half. The following year, Boston, Maine, Michigan, New York, Hawaii, Florida, and Alaska are invaded.

This one is better. If the Germans can commandeer the British Merchant fleet, it could work provided the US does nothing except the naval expansion in 1940-48.....

 

[The Byronic Hero]

The Business Plot proves real leading to a prolonged civil war that breaks the nation apart. The Southern States are granted Nazi aid eventually leading to full intervention and the occupation of New England down to DC. The Midwest becomes a socialist republic while the West breaks off and follows a Progressive path.

 

[Enigmajones]

For this to be even feasible, the Nazis need to take and annex the Azores Islands. Would Portugal put up a fight about this? And if so would it push Portugal into the Allied camp?

 

[Saint_007]

For this to be even feasible, the Nazis need to take and annex the Azores Islands. Would Portugal put up a fight about this? And if so would it push Portugal into the Allied camp?

The assumption was that by the time Germany 'unified' Europe, Portugal and Britain would either be allies or vassals. Portugal would be similarly required to cede its African colonies for the Mittelafrika project.

So yeah, Portugal's probably going to raise all sorts of shenanigans (or whatever shenanigans it can) about it.

 

[Tovarich]

First, U.S. citizens are armed to the teeth. Expect extremely hostile civilian resistance.

Whenever I see that, I'm amazed that the ACW had any actual battles at all.

Both armies must've been terrified to leave their own barracks, what with all the armed citizens about.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Is this the same USA which outbuilt every navy in the world combined during WWII?

 

[IntellectuallyHonestRhino]

Whenever I see that, I'm amazed that the ACW had any actual battles at all.

Both armies must've been terrified to leave their own barracks, what with all the armed citizens about.

Are we being sarcastic or serious here?


I did say that the second point was important, but I do want to stress that German soldiers shipped across the Atlantic would have not only met profrsssionsl armies when landing but everywhere they go in an unfamiliar terrain they would be shot at.