AHC: Nazi Germany attacks Romania before defeating France

raharris1973

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AHC: Nazi Germany attacks Romania before defeating France -

Pretty much I said here. For the purposes of the scenario here, nobody needs to assume that Germany must attack and defeat France. One can arrange things flexibly once the Nazi party comes into existence.
 
if they invaded Romania BEFORE Poland it would have closed off Romanian Bridgehead https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Bridgehead, a key part of Polish defense plans.

divide Romania between Hungary (Transylvania) and Bulgaria (southern or ALL of Dobruja) and a rump state of Wallachia (archaic term) controlled by Iron Guard (?) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_regions_of_Romania

cede Bessarabia to USSR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_occupation_of_Bessarabia_and_Northern_Bukovina

could control Wallachia as puppet state similar to Slovak Republic.
 
If they tried invading Romania before the USSR, wouldn't the Soviets intervene in Romania? Wasn't Romania part of the Soviet sphere of influence in the M-R pact?
 
They don't share border. Hungary even with their grudge against Romania could be reluctant to allow Germans to attack from their territory before France is down. Even if they did, what about Yugoslavia?
 
if they invaded Romania BEFORE Poland it would have closed off Romanian Bridgehead https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Bridgehead, a key part of Polish defense plans.

divide Romania between Hungary (Transylvania) and Bulgaria (southern or ALL of Dobruja) and a rump state of Wallachia (archaic term) controlled by Iron Guard (?) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_regions_of_Romania

cede Bessarabia to USSR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_occupation_of_Bessarabia_and_Northern_Bukovina

could control Wallachia as puppet state similar to Slovak Republic.
Even less possible in my opinion. Hungary refused to cooperate against Poland. With France and Poland still in the game Hungary will not try such adventure.
 
If they tried invading Romania before the USSR, wouldn't the Soviets intervene in Romania? Wasn't Romania part of the Soviet sphere of influence in the M-R pact?
No, but Bessarabia was. The Soviets wouldn't have accepted unless Germany allowed them to take Bessarabia. However it's a moot point since Germany doesn't have a border and there is no country with a border that will let them or has good enough roads to travel through.
 
I'm romanian btw. Imo based on what i have read over the years, the germans really needed the romanian oil, while they were afraid the wells will be set on fire like during WW1 if the country will be invaded. They were also very wary of the soviets getting said oil.

Perhaps Hitler panics and in spring 1940 (i can't really see the attack taking place in late 1939/early 1940 due to the attrocious weather and german logistical problems) and gives orders to secure the romanian oil before attacking France, as if things go wrong he would be fully engaged in the west while the soviet could grab "his" oil. They could entice the hungarians with Transilvania to allow troops to cross and attack from Hungary, maybe the bulgarians too (with Dobruja). They could also attack from the north.

Anyway if this will happen we're screwed, possibly at least some wells are set on fire, but we will be ripped in 3 or 4 parts by the germans, hungarians, bulgarians AND the soviets in 3 weeks, possibly a rump puppet fascist state surviving, and there isn't much the french or UK could or would do. But this means attacking France in JUNE or JULY 1940, so things might get a bit interesting in that front (more modern planes, more modern tanks etc. for the french).

Also we have Norway to think about, what happens there is another intersting scenario, but likely the germans would divert enough forces to just hold the front there until the attack on France.
 

Redbeard

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My first thought is that Germany will be short of an important contribution to Barbarossa. I know that the Rumanians are often seen as 2nd rate troops and even blamed for Stalingrad. But considering what kind of materiel they had to do with I actually think they did fine and after all fielded an army of about 20 Divisions through most of the war.
 
Mack8 i thing you are right that Romania couldn't hold long. :confused:however it will still be hard for Germans to press Hungary into open conflict if France is still standing.
 
If they tried invading Romania before the USSR, wouldn't the Soviets intervene in Romania? Wasn't Romania part of the Soviet sphere of influence in the M-R pact?

They don't share border. Hungary even with their grudge against Romania could be reluctant to allow Germans to attack from their territory before France is down. Even if they did, what about Yugoslavia?

Hungary refused to cooperate against Poland. With France and Poland still in the game Hungary will not try such adventure.

No, but Bessarabia was. The Soviets wouldn't have accepted unless Germany allowed them to take Bessarabia. However it's a moot point since Germany doesn't have a border and there is no country with a border that will let them or has good enough roads to travel through.

what my scenario proposes is division of Romania by prior agreement, there would be no reason why USSR would not strike M-R Pact that covered Romania INSTEAD of Poland? a less risky move for them? and if anything they wanted return of Bessarabia MORE than (then) Polish lands?

Hungary agreed to participate in division of Czechoslovakia and had its own "war" against Slovaks, Germany could have threatened to reverse course and support Slovaks for a path to Romania (or ally with Hungary to occupy all of Transylvania.)

while Hungary had at least decent relations with Poland, Romania was their enemy, the one country they would wage war against (even if reluctantly.)

Bulgaria would have to do little more than move their army to border and open their airfields to LW in exchange for Dobruja.
 
Perhaps Hitler panics and in spring 1940 and gives orders to secure the romanian oil before attacking France, as if things go wrong he would be fully engaged in the west while the soviet could grab "his" oil. They could entice the hungarians with Transilvania to allow troops to cross and attack from Hungary, maybe the bulgarians too (with Dobruja). They could also attack from the north.

Anyway if this will happen we're screwed, possibly at least some wells are set on fire, but we will be ripped in 3 or 4 parts by the germans, hungarians, bulgarians AND the soviets in 3 weeks, possibly a rump puppet fascist state surviving, and there isn't much the french or UK could or would do. But this means attacking France in JUNE or JULY 1940, so things might get a bit interesting in that front

my scenario is BEFORE Poland and possibly INSTEAD. if not panicking they might be seriously concerned about lack of oil reserves and not willing to become totally dependent on Soviets. AND the Romanian Bridgehead MIGHT have worked, they might have fought there AND what if Romania joined in?

seizing the Romanian oil first and seal off only friendly border of Poland. the lack of action by France and GB might also open eyes of Poland as to what aid they could expect? they could also see German-Soviet pact so possible joint invasion would be clear.

not stating Poland would become willing member of Axis (although possible they would become co-belligerent against USSR) but it is plausible they remain neutral with their defense "re-oriented" east against Soviets.

am assuming the German armed forces less beat up after war with Romania than OTL war with Poland.
 
my scenario is BEFORE Poland and possibly INSTEAD. if not panicking they might be seriously concerned about lack of oil reserves and not willing to become totally dependent on Soviets. AND the Romanian Bridgehead MIGHT have worked, they might have fought there AND what if Romania joined in?

seizing the Romanian oil first and seal off only friendly border of Poland. the lack of action by France and GB might also open eyes of Poland as to what aid they could expect? they could also see German-Soviet pact so possible joint invasion would be clear.
,,,
am assuming the German armed forces less beat up after war with Romania than OTL war with Poland.

Ummm... To attack Romania, the Nazis would have to traverse the entire length of Czechoslovakia before setting foot across the border. Either that, or convince a highly sceptical Horthy to let them through Hungary. (Hi, we want to march our entire army through your country from one side to the other, but no, we have no intent on holding it, nosirree, look at how we kept our word with um... ah..., well, TRUST US, it'll be fine.)

The logistics strain of supporting a war across a semi-hostile newly conquered territory is going to be horrible.

I'd think it would be far WORSE for the Nazis than conquering (half of) Poland.
 
what my scenario proposes is division of Romania by prior agreement, there would be no reason why USSR would not strike M-R Pact that covered Romania INSTEAD of Poland? a less risky move for them? and if anything they wanted return of Bessarabia MORE than (then) Polish lands?

Hungary agreed to participate in division of Czechoslovakia and had its own "war" against Slovaks, Germany could have threatened to reverse course and support Slovaks for a path to Romania (or ally with Hungary to occupy all of Transylvania.)

while Hungary had at least decent relations with Poland, Romania was their enemy, the one country they would wage war against (even if reluctantly.)

Bulgaria would have to do little more than move their army to border and open their airfields to LW in exchange for Dobruja.
Sure something similar as M-R pact but regarding Romania may happen.

How LW will get its planes to Bulgaria? And especially all their ground support.

Hungary agreed to participate on division on Czechoslovakia however their promise to attack was more then vague. They would wait till Germansachieve some huge victory.

As to their "Little war" with Slovakia. They use huge oportunity whi h gave them creation of Slovak army. Czech soldiers and officers going home, Slovak still in Czech lands. Regiments on 1/4 of its strength often led by captains or majors. And their either had limitted objective in Eastern Slovakia which they achieved. Or if they aimed for more then Slovaks did relatively well as they a hieved their primery objective to deffend independence.

As other poster said Horthy was OTL very reluctant to allow German army presence in Hungary.
 
Ummm... To attack Romania, the Nazis would have to traverse the entire length of Czechoslovakia before setting foot across the border. Either that, or convince a highly sceptical Horthy to let them through Hungary.
In 1939 they can't do even that. Slovakia is allied however short Ruthenian independence was crashed after few days by Hungarian occupation in March 1939. So independent Slovakia does not share border with Romania and Germans need to get Hungarian permission.
 
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I'd think it would be far WORSE for the Nazis than conquering (half of) Poland.

Sure something similar as M-R pact but regarding Romania may happen.

How LW will get its planes to Bulgaria? And especially all their ground support.

Hungary agreed to participate on division on Czechoslovakia however their promise to attack was more then vague. They would wait till Germansachieve some huge victory.

sorry, fail to see how it would be worse than Poland. their military was less than a third (of Poland's) and would be distracted by fifth column (Iron Guard.)

probably tense to reach agreement with Hungary but a pact with USSR assures fighting would be over quickly and they proved later to be able to control Horthy (or a successor.)

(Bulgaria is sideshow and not necessary but assume JU-52s and JU-86s, which had commercial versions could fly over Romania? until Germans arrived they did not have extensive AA defenses anyway?)
 
Hitler could always threaten the hungarians if they don't allow the german troops to pass. What are they going to do, the hungarian army is even weaker than the romanian one. But i still think they will be very enticed by the promise of Transilvania, besides the french and british are far away, nothing they can do (or will do) immediately.

As for the romanian army in mid-1940, actually i think the airforce had more frontline aircraft than Poland in 1939, they had aproximately 30 He-111, 20 S-79B, 20 Potez-63, 40 Blenheim, 8 MB-210, plus 20 interned PZL-37 and 20 PZL-23, and a few modern fighters (30 PZL-24, 30 He-112, 12 Hurricane, 11 Bf-109E, a couple of IAR-80 prototypes) in addition to well over 100 perimated PZL-11F/C fighters, also over 150 army cooperation IAR-37/38/39 biplanes, but we had a lot less tanks (75 R-35 and 126 R-2/LT-35 plus about 200 tankettes and older tanks, Poland i think it had 800 tanks and tankettes) and AA, and also i think fewer artillery pieces. But probably in capability one on one the romanian army would be below the polish military of 1939- i think. But if the hungarian army will be in the fight, think the romanians will do their best to give the hungarians a hard time.:)
 
sorry, fail to see how it would be worse than Poland. their military was less than a third (of Poland's) and would be distracted by fifth column (Iron Guard.)

probably tense to reach agreement with Hungary but a pact with USSR assures fighting would be over quickly and they proved later to be able to control Horthy (or a successor.)

(Bulgaria is sideshow and not necessary but assume JU-52s and JU-86s, which had commercial versions could fly over Romania? until Germans arrived they did not have extensive AA defenses anyway?)
You don't just need to bring personnel. You need equipment, parts, ammunition, oil, fuel. In 1944 Czechoslovak fighter regiment operated during Slovak Uprising from territory of Slovakia and Soviets had to airlift everything from parts and ammunition up to fuel. Fuel which Slovaks had available was good biplanes from mi 30-ties but not for modern airplanes. Germans could run into similar problem.
 
Hitler could always threaten the hungarians if they don't allow the german troops to pass. What are they going to do, the hungarian army is even weaker than the romanian one. But i still think they will be very enticed by the promise of Transilvania, besides the french and british are far away, nothing they can do (or will do) immediately.

Well he was not able to get straight yes from them against Czechoslovakia in 1938. He was not able to push them against Poland.

However I understand that temptation to get back Transylvania would be huge. ;)
 
Let see the why would the Germans attack Romania (or any other country) for territory or for resources,because is a threat (here i include revenge),out of the three only one can be valid for Romania,resources so Romania will have to stop supplying oil.
So why and when would Romania stop supplying oil,if she can not,or if UK and France are offering support,with troops on the ground and planes in the air,in which case the Germany has a big chance of being alone since i don't see the Stalin or Horty joining in with France sill alive and UK on the continent.
And then we have the when,and since there is no direct border between Romania and Nazi Germany the attack will probably come in case of a war between Czechoslovakia, or if Romania becomes involved in the Hungary-Slovakia war,or after the invasion of Poland,if it is the first chance are Romania is not alone,in the second one chance are Germany will let Hungary go,no to mention that in both case Romania will have to have a very bad relation with Germany,so we are left with the third option after Poland.
So we have a Romania that has a bad relation with Germany,and is supported by UK and France.
As for the German objective in the invasion will be to secure the OIl infrastructure as intact as is possible,and for that Nazi Germany will have to be able to secure air superiority and drop in paratroopers to secure the oil infrastructure,Germany will need to do this no mater how well equipped and trained is Romania.
So for an war to happen between Romania and Nazi Germany there must be a very bad relation between the two and a Romania that is supported by France and Germany,and by support a mean very thing from quipped to trained to boots on the ground.
And of then there is the question of from where ? With Hungary neutral the attack can come only from the north,if the Soviets leave the Germans a corridor of if Hungary dose not take all of Ruthenian,let say that both are leaving Germany with a route to attack,the bad think for the Germans is the they will have to cross a few mountains and hills before the will reach the oil,which will have to be secure in mean time.
 
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