Originally Posted by NOMISYRRUC
Can this be combined with one of the Greater USA wanks because the only way to get a bigger space programme is to spend more money on it. If the USA is a richer nation then theoretically more money is available for spending on everything including the space programme.
E.g. combining it with one of the wanks where the USA absorbs Canada in 1776 or 1812 theoretically gives the US Government 10% more money to spend, because it has about 10% more people.
Also please can you change the POD limit to 1947 because I don't want to cancel the MX-774 because doing so should give the USA more reliable rockets in the second half of the 1950s.
Then here we go. This is what I call a U1.1 Scenario where the USA has 10% more people and therefore 10% richer because it annexed Canada. If I get round to it I will write the U1.5 Scenario where the USA has 50% more people and therefore 50% richer because it annexed Canada and Mexico.
The American Manned Space Programme to 2010
Introduction
In this version of history the United States are richer because they conquered Canada during the War of Independence or the War of 1812. This gives the USA about 10% more people and the US Treasury 10% more tax revenue so the US Government can spend 10% more on its space programme if it wants to and if Congress passes the bugets.
The MX-774 Programme
The US defence budget is 10% larger in the second half of the 1940s, which saves the MX-774 from being cancelled in 1947. This does not mean that the first firing of the Atlas ICBM or its entry into service is 3½ years ahead of the real world. However, it does mean that Convair and their subcontractors have more time to design and test their components increasing the reliability of Atlas.
The Titan, Jupiter and Thor programs, which were still started in 1955 entered service no earlier, but they also benefitted from MX-774 surviving the 1940s defence cuts as they were more reliable and had more powerful engines. It also has a knock-on effect on the Delta and Saturn I space launchers which were developed from the Thor and Jupiter.
The Atlas ICBM still enters service in September 1959 and a total of 132 missiles (33 D, 27 E and 72 F) are deployed at a cost of $8B. However, galloping technology meant they quickly became obsolete and the missiles were stood down in 1964-65. However, the USAF recycled them as satellite launchers.
The Titan I ICBM was begun in January 1955. The first successful launch was in February 1959 and IOC was reached in February 1961. In common with Atlas the missile had a short service life because its propellants weren't storable and the six squadrons with their UE of 54 missiles were stood down in 1965. None of the missiles were reused as satellite launchers.
In the real world Titan II was approved in June 1960, the first launch was in December 1961 and IOC was reached in October 1963. Titan II had a long service life because it used storable fuels giving it an instant launch capability. When deployed it was expected that it would be replaced in 1971, but it remained in service until the 1980s. Furthermore many of the retired ICBMs were recycled as satellite launchers.
However, Glenn Martin "had the technology," to coin a phrase to build Titan II instead of Titan I in the real world because all their previous missiles had used storable fuels. In this version of history that is what happened. The first successful Titan launch was still in February 1959, IOC was still in February 1961 and a force of 108 missiles in twelve squadrons of 9 missiles was deployed. However, the 54 Titian II missiles deployed in place of Titan I had a much longer service life. They were not withdrawn until the early 1980s and after that were recycled as satellite launchers.
The USAF could have done even better by cancelling Atlas in 1955 in favour of concentrating on Titan II with the result that it entered service in September 1959. The result was a front-line of 240 Titan II missiles (all in silos) instead of 132 Atlas, 54 Titan I and 54 Titan II. This would have been a much better long term investment for the American Strategic Nuclear Force (SNF) because the instant launch capability meant that the 132 missiles deployed instead of the Atlas would have remained in service until the early 1980s. On that logic it would also have been better for the US military and the US taxpayer to not develop Jupiter and Thor in favour of more Titan II missiles based in the Continental US instead of Europe. However, it makes the space programme more complicated so I haven't cancelled Atlas, Jupiter and Thor.
Project Mercury
In this version of history Mercury-Redstone was abandoned before the end of 1958 because Atlas was more reliable and NASA managers expected that it would become safe enough to be man-rated at the same time as Mercury-Redstone. Therefore there would be no gap for the sub-orbital Mercury to fill. The number of Mercury capsules ordered in this version of history was the same as the real world, but no Redstone and more Atlas boosters were ordered.
The first American in space was still Alan Shepherd in May 1961. In the real world his mission was Mercury-Redstone 3 (MR-3) a sub-orbital flight of 15 minutes duration. In this version of history it was Mercury-Atlas 7 (MA-7) which allowed him to spend 4 hours and 55 minutes in space and complete 3 orbits. This also made him the first American to orbit the earth. In the real world it was John Glenn in February 1963, 9 months later.
In the real world Shepherd's mission was preceded by 3 unmanned Mercury-Atlas and 3 unmanned Mercury-Redstone launches. In this version of history there were 6 unmanned Mercury-Atlas missions and no unmanned Mercury-Redstones.
The second American in space was still Gus Grissom in July 1961. In this version of history he was also the second American in orbit because his mission was MA-8 rather than MR-4. He spent 4 hours 56 minutes in space rather than the 16 minutes of the real world and completed 3 orbits rather than none.
The unmanned MA-4 of September 1961 became the manned MA-9 in this version of history. John Glenn completed 6 orbits.
The unmanned MA-5 of November 1961 became the manned MA-10 in this version of history. Scott Carpenter completed 22 orbits a duration of one day 10 hours and 20 minutes making him the first American to spend a day in space. In the real world the first American to spend a day in space was Gordon Cooper in May 1963, 18 months later.
Thus the Americans had put 4 men into orbit by the end of 1961 instead of none in the real world and reached all the objectives that the real Project Mercury didn’t reach until May 1963 (18 months later). The 4 astronauts had a combined total of 34 orbits and a cumulative flight time of 2 days 5 hours and 24 minutes. By comparison the Soviet Union had put 2 men into orbit for a combined total of 18 orbits and one day 3 hours and 6 minutes flight time.
In the real world there were 3 Mercury-Atlas missions in 1962 and one in 1963. A total of 4 Mercury-Atlas missions had been planned for 1963, but MA-11 and MA-12, which were one-day missions, were cancelled in October 1962 and MA-10, which was upgraded to 3-days, was cancelled in June 1963. In this version of history the Americans planned to launch a quartet of 3-day Mercury-Atlas missions in 1962 and another quartet in 1963. However, in common with the real world this schedule wasn't met.
In the real world the Mercury-Atlas launched in February 1962 was MA-6 carrying John Glenn on a 3-orbit mission, but in this version of history it was MA-11 carrying Walter Schirra on a 3-day mission.
In the real world the Mercury-Atlas launched in May 1962 was MA-5 carrying Scott Carpenter on a 3-orbit mission, but in this version of history it was MA-12 carrying Gordon Cooper on a 3-day mission.
The October 1962 mission was MA-8 in the real world. Walter Schirra completed 6 orbits. However, in this version of history it was MA-13. This was a 48-oribt flight of 3 days duration and Alan Shepherd became the first man to travel into space twice.
The final Mercury-Atlas in both versions of history was launched in May 1963. In the real world it was MA-9 carrying Gordon Cooper on a 22 orbit mission of 1 day and 10 hours duration. In this version of history it was MA-14 carrying Gus Grissom on his second space flight, which was a 48-orbit mission of 3 days duration.
Missions MA-15 to MA-18 were cancelled in October 1962 because they were considered unnecessary and all the resources available had to be concentrated on developing the Apollo spacecraft. Furthermore the flight schedules were slipping. MA-14 planned for the end of 1962 wasn't launched until the middle of 1963 and at least 2 of the following missions would have been delayed until 1964.
In the real world Project Mercury sent 6 men into space (but only 4 of them went into orbit) with a total flight time of 2 days 5 hours and 51 minutes. In this version of history it put 8 men into space (and all of them into orbit) with a combined flight time of 15 days 3 hours and 36 minutes.
Meanwhile the Soviet Union had put 5 men and one woman into orbit by the end of 1963 with a combined flight time of 15 days 21 hours and 58 minutes. They also got all the "firsts." Yuri Gagarin still became the first man in space and to orbit the earth in April 1961, beating Alan Shepherd by 3 weeks. Furthermore Gherman Titov was still the first man to spend a day in space in August 1961, beating Scott Carpenter by 3 months. Valentina Tereshkova was the first woman in space beating Sally Ride by 20 years (except that America probably put women into space 5-10 years earlier in this version of history). They made the first group flight with Vostoks 3 and 4 in 1962, which was 3 years ahead of Geminis 6 and 7 in 1965. Valery Bykovsky held the duration record with 4 days 23 hours and 6 minutes on Vostok 5 in 1963. The USSR would still be the first nation to put 3 men into space with Voskhod 1 in 1964 and make the first spacewalk with Voskhod 2 in 1965.
Apollo and Skylab
Part 1 - Saturn I and Apollo Block I
The Saturn I project wasn't begun any earlier. However, the US Army and then NASA can spend more money on it. It also benefits from having 8 H-1 engines instead of 4 E-1 engines from the start. The H-1 belonged to the family of engines used by Atlas, Jupiter and Thor/Delta, which in turn were developed from MX-774 so more powerful versions of H-1 became available sooner. What became the S-IVB stage was first proposed in 1959, but not approved until 1962. In this version of history S-IVB became the upper stage for Saturn I in 1959 rather than 3 years later.
22 Saturn I rockets were launched between October 1961 and the end of 1966. The first 4 had S-I Block II first stages and dummy S-IVB upper stages, but the other 18 were full Saturn IB vehicles. 3 carried boiler plate Apollo CSMs and 3 carried Pegasus satellites, both were considerably heavier than the real spacecraft because the Saturn IB could lift payloads 80% heavier than the Saturn I. The next 12 were launched between April 1964 and the end of 1966. They carried Block I Apollo CSMs and performed the missions carried out by Gemini 1 to 12 in the real world. The Apollo spacecraft used were CSM-009 to 020, some of which were cancelled in the real world.
In September 1962 NASA decided to launch an unmanned Apollo CSM on SA-10 and to follow this up with 4 manned Apollo CSM flights 1965-66 using Saturn I rockets, but these missions were cancelled in October 1963 because special lightweight Apollo spacecraft were required. However, in this version of history I have accelerated Saturn IB so it was man rated 2 years earlier so that standard weight Apollo spacecraft could be put into orbit concurrently with Gemini.
The next logical step was not to develop Gemini and use the money saved to accelerate Apollo so that the first manned Apollo launch can be in March 1965 to replace Gemini 3. Although an Apollo CSM and Saturn IB cost more than a Gemini and Titan II, it should be possible with the extra money available. There might be some economies of scale through more intensive use of LC-34 and LC-37 during 1965-66. Also the docking targets could be launched by Saturn IB with the Apollo CSM rather than in a separate Atlas-Agena launch, which would save some money. In this version of history there is an initial production run of 37 Saturn I vehicles, rather than 22 so there might be some cost reductions through more intensive use of the fixed assets on the production line. That is if the existing production line had the capacity to do so.
However, this did not mean there was no Gemini. The DoD spent the extra 10% it received for military spaceflight on manned space projects. That is it decided to develop Man In Space Sophisticated in stead of X-20 and this project evolved into Blue Gemini which had its first manned mission in 1965. The extra 10% is also enough to complete the original MOL programme of 2 unmanned and 5 manned missions by the end of 1970. After this the DoD decided to make the programme open ended and launched another 15 MOL missions at the rate of 3 a year until the end of 1975. This would increase the number of Titan III launches between the September 1964 and the end of 1976 from exactly 100 to 122. The marginal cost of this might be relatively low.
Apollo and Skylab Part 2 - Saturn V and Apollo Block II
Work on the F-1 rocket engine did not begin any earlier, but the earlier start of work on the S-IVB stage for Saturn I might mean that the version for Saturn V and the S-II stage might be available a year earlier so that the first Saturn V launch can be advanced to the last quarter of 1966. AS-501 and AS-502 would launch the first pair of Block II Apollo CSM rather than Block I capsules and man rate the launcher and the spacecraft.
Planners intended to use AS-503, CSM-103 and LM-3 for the Profile D mission, AS-504, CSM-104 and LM-4 for the Profile E mission, AS-505, CSM-105 and LM-5 for the Profile F mission and AS-506, CSM-106 and LM-6 for the Profile G mission that is the first Moon landing. However, this was not possible because the Lunar Module was behind schedule and AS-503 was used to launch Skylab as a "dry" space station in 1967, rather than the "wet" Skylab launched by Saturn IB originally planned. The slippage in the LM programme forced NASA to launch a C-Prime mission at the end of 1968 (Apollo 8 in the real world) using AS-505 (because AS-504 was reserved for the backup Skylab) and CSM-103. The Profile D mission (Apollo 9 in the real world) was still launched in March 1969 and followed by the Profile F mission (Apollo 10 in the real world) in May 1969. Meanwhile an unmanned Lunar Module test (Profile B mission named Apollo 5 in the real world) was carried out by LM-1 launched by Saturn IB in January 1968 and was so successful that a second Profile B mission using LM-2 wasn't required.
The Profile G mission (Apollo 11 in the real world) still took place in 1969 and Neil Armstrong was still the first man on the Moon. There were still enough Saturn V rockets left for another 9 landing attempts because 2 additional vehicles were built to replace AS-504 and 505. Furthermore instead of 1 G, 4 H and 5 J-series landing missions NASA planned to attempt 1 G, 1 H and 8 J-series landings. In the real world Apollo 20 was cancelled so that Skylab could be upgraded from a "wet" to a "dry" workshop and Apollo 18 and 19 were cancelled because of budget cuts (although it did allow Apollo 15 to be upgraded to a Profile J mission). None of the landing attempts were cancelled in this version of history due to the extra funding.
Apollo & Skylab Part 3 - Skylab
In the real world Skylab A would have been launched in the first quarter of 1968 and been visited by 2 Apollo CSM in 1968 for habitations of 28 and 28 days respectively. There would have then been 4 habitations each of 90 days in 1969 and by the end of that year the habitations would overlap. It would have been followed by Skylab B in 1970, which would have been visited by 4 Apollo CSM for visits of 90 days each, all of which would overlap. Workshops A and B were "wet" workshops launched by Saturn IB and their Apollo Telescope Mounts (ATM) were modified Lunar Modules launched by Saturn IB. Workshop E was effectively the Skylab of the real world because it was the definitive "dry" workshop launched by Saturn V. In the original AAP plan it was to have been visited by 8 overlapping 90-day visits by Apollo spacecraft in 1971-73. Skylab E was to have been preceded in the first half of 1971 by Skylab C, a "wet" workshop launched with an Apollo CSM by Saturn V into geosynchronous orbit. Once there the CSM would have docked with Skylab C and its crew would spend 90 days aboard. A second Saturn V would have launched a CSM and ATM for another 90-day habitation of Workshop C. Skylab D was the backup "wet" workshop and Skylab F was the backup "dry" workshop.
However, instead of 20 Apollo CSM visits to 4 space stations over 5 years, NASA only had enough money to for 3 visits of 28, 56 and 84 days respectively to one space station in 1973. Fortunately more money and the earlier availability of the Saturn V for space station launches made a much more ambitious programme possible.
Only 2 Skylabs were built in this version of history because delays in the Apollo LM made it possible to launch a "dry" workshop by Saturn V in 1967 without delaying the Moon landing program and it meant that the 4 Saturn IB needed to launch the "wet" workshops planned for 1968 and 1970 in the real world along with their associated ATMs could be used for additional manned habitations of the space station.
Skylab was visited by 2 Apollo spacecraft in 1967 for visits of 28 and 56 days respectively. From then on there were 4 CSM visits a year from the beginning of 1968 to the end of 1974 each of 90 days duration. All 30 missions overlapped so that Skylab A was permanently manned for a little over 7 years. Skylab was replenished using Resupply Modules (RM), which were launched with the visiting Apollo CSM and attached to a spare port on the Multiple Docking Adapter (MDA). Although the RM wasn't built in the real world it was the basis of the Docking Module used for the ASTP. The geosynchronous Skylab wasn't built because only 17 Saturn V were built and NASA did not want to sacrifice any Moon landing attempts.
This was possible because more Saturn IB launchers were built. If all other things were the same 37 would be built, that is 10 instead of Saturn I, 15 instead of the 15 Titan II ordered for Gemini (but 3 were cancelled) and the 12 Saturn IB of the real world. NASA tried to order 18 more in the real world, but this was soon cut back to 2 and there wasn't enough money to complete them. In this version of history there is enough money to build a grand total of 55 of which 22 were used by the end of 1966 leaving 30 for Skylab, one for the test of LM-1, one for the ASTP and one on standby for the Skylab Rescue mission had one been required.
In both versions of history NASA intended to launch a 12-man Space Station Core in 1975. The plan was to add modules to the core so that by 1990 it would have expanded into a 100-man facility. However, there wasn't enough money to do it in the real world or this version of history. In the real world NASA had enough Saturn IB rockets and Apollo spacecraft for 3 more visits to Skylab or they could have launched the backup Skylab with one of the 2 remaining Saturn V rockets. This was not done in the real world because there wasn't enough money. In this version of history Skylab was worn out by the end of 1974, but in common with the real world a Saturn V was available to launch the backup. However, more Apollo CSM and Saturn IB rockets would have to be built. NASA could have followed this route, but instead it decided that building the Space Shuttle was a better long term investment.
Summary To 1975
In the real world NASA launched 31 manned spacecraft between 1961 and 1975, which between them carried 71 astronauts and a cumulative flight time of 937 man-days. This included 7 Moon landing attempts of which 6 were successful.
In this version of history the 10% increase in funding increased these totals to 55 manned NASA spacecraft, 153 astronauts and the cumulative flight time was increased by 5,940 man-days. This included 10 Moon landing attempts of which 9 were successful.
The Space Shuttle
In the real world NASA planned to launch a 12-man permanent space station in 1975, which by 1990 would have expanded into a 100-man facility. By that time there would be space stations in geosynchronous earth orbit, Lunar orbit and orbiting Mars. Space station modules would be used for the accommodation for the Nuclear Shuttles that would travel between them and for the Lunar and Martian surface bases. The Space Station Core, Space Tug and the NERVA nuclear rocket engine died in the early 1970s and all that survived was the Space Shuttle.
A 10% increase in funding wasn't enough to save the Space Station Core, Space Tug or NERVA engine in this version of history. It wasn't enough to build a better Space Shuttle either. In the early 1970s the Space Shuttle as built was expected to cost $5.5B. Replacing the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB) with Liquid Rocket Boosters (LRB) increased the estimated cost to $7B and the totally reusable shuttle had an estimated R&D cost of $10-15B. If the extra funding was spread evenly across all the branches of NASA only $550M extra is available for the Space Shuttle. Therefore NASA decided to use the extra money to build an extra pair of flight rated orbiter vehicles at an estimated cost of $250M each in early 1970s Dollars.
This increased the initial fleet of flight rated orbiters from 4 to 6. This allowed a 50% increase in the number of flights and a reduction in the cost per launch but not to anywhere near the cost per launch that what was hoped for in the early 1970s. This cost reduction happened because fixed assets such as the launch pads and the VAB were being used more intensively.
A 50% increase in the number of launches probably means that a third shuttle was lost. In common with the real world there was only enough money to build one replacement shuttle for a total of 7 flight rated orbiter vehicles instead of 5. However, all other things being equal 10% more would be spent on the Freedom Space Station, but that would not be enough to see any hardware built before the original $8.8B was spent. The extra $800M might have been better spent on an 8th orbiter vehicle.
I have found no corroborating evidence, but I vaguely remember reading in Flight International in the late 1980s that NASA a developing a LRB to replace the SRB. It would have been safer, cheaper to operate and allowed heavier payloads. However, it was cancelled in yet another round of budget cuts. 10% extra funding would not have saved it from cancellation so the project wasn't begun in the first place and the money was spent on completing the 8th orbiter vehicle.
)--no Apollo 1 fire to turn NASA supporters like Ed Muskie into critics; continued Soviet firsts; LBJ as president (JFK was not a fan of space exploration, he was a fan of beating Russkies; LBJ actually loved space); no/shorter Viet Nam, etc.