Please clarify, when does he win? Is it before Austria mobilizes for war in 1809 (Reverse outcomes at the battles of Vimeiro or Bailén, or a more decisive outcome at Tudela in 1808)? Is it afterwards (Portugal occupied in 1810, or French victory at Albuera in 1811)? Is it right before the invasion of Russia (no disaster at Salamanca in 1812)? Is it afterwards (battles of Vitoria or the Pyrenees, which would likely only have guaranteed a rump kingdom in northeastern Spain for Joseph)?
Is there much more that I need to say?
Sure, but Wellesley had always been told to not have all of Britain's main army ( which it definitely was by 1812 ) destroyed. He could defend but expecting defeat evacuate away from the Peninsula.but shouldn't Napoleon be able to defeat Wellington in a straight battle? This isn't naval war...
The guerilla war is one thing, but shouldn't Napoleon be able to defeat Wellington in a straight battle? This isn't naval war...
Sure, but Wellesley had always been told to not have all of Britain's main army ( which it definitely was by 1812 ) destroyed. He could defend but expecting defeat evacuate away from the Peninsula.
Of course, this is the Napoleonic version of having your cake and eating it too. Napoleon would have been better off by keeping the Bourbons on the throne instead of his brother.
The problem is who Napoleon had not really any niece to offer to Ferdinand as the only one remotely in the right age group was Lucien’s eldest daughter who was born in 1795. If Joseph’s eldest daughter, who was born in 1796, had not died young maybe she would be offered (sure the girl would be only12 years old in 1808 but that was acceptable).This first and foremost. The Spanish were never going to accept Joseph. EVER. Yet, Napoleon would not accept that fact. Napoleon's blindness was he thought his success in creating puppet states in Italy and Germany for his mediocre siblings would work in Spain as well. Different culture, different country. He could have just left Ferdinand there, married him off to one of his nieces - something Ferdinand was eager to do - and everything would have been fine since Ferdinand was more of a brown-noser and lackey of Nappy than even Joseph was. And if he couldn't tolerate Ferdinand he could just install another one of Carlos IV's children or grandchildren (such as the recently dispossessed child King of Etruria) and rule in their name with a hand-picked Spanish Regent. But to put on the throne of Ferdinand and Isabel as "His Most Catholic Majesty" (a title the non-devout Joseph did indeed take up) someone who was not of F&I's blood, who was once a staunch anti-clerical Republican in the Revolutionary era, and was the brother of Spain's despoiler (even going so far as to accept French annexation of Catalonia, despite pledging at Bayonne never to see Spain taken apart) was madness.
Napoleon's best chance at getting an insurmountable advantage in the Peninsula would have been to defeat the British Army and destroy it before it evacuated from A Coruña.
Could he have known? With a lucky spy, perhaps?
If I recall correctly, Britain only got involved AFTER Spain won a battle and the French failed to fully capture Portugal. Had France succeeded a little better, Britain would have abandoned Portugal, and there would have been far less support for the Spanish guerrillas.I would make the most likely possibility to actually be in the initial invasion. The first British commander prior to Wellington was an opponent of British involvement in Spain, and before he died at Corunna (why Wellington took command), he was making plans to leave Iberia to the French. If he lived, and did so, I find it very likely that a Spain left to the wolves would be much easier to conquer, as would be Portugal.
I agree. In my opinion, the best course in the Peninsular War for France would be to ensure that Portugal is completely subdued, as well as capturing the Portuguese royal family, whose successful escape from Lisbon led Napoleon to declare King João as the only man who ever fooled him. After this, they can focus on Spain, and in the case that Ferdinand is, well, himself, replace him with Joseph (but if he’s complacent, keep him for the time being) and have Napoleon directly involve himself in Spain from the very beginning, to prevent a Bailen equivalent, as it was because of that battle that Austria declared war, which was something that Napoleon, if he had time to subdue Spain, could probably take care of in 1810 or 1811 or something if Austria was too fearful to actually open hostilities themselves. Now, with Iberia finally, firmly subdued, France’s southwestern flank is secured from attack and he is free to focus on Germany and Russia.If I recall correctly, Britain only got involved AFTER Spain won a battle and the French failed to fully capture Portugal. Had France succeeded a little better, Britain would have abandoned Portugal, and there would have been far less support for the Spanish guerrillas.
The nobility/upper class were willing to accept Joseph. Whatever was best to keep their own bank accounts intact. It was the lower classes who said hell no. But, overall, should have left one of the Bourbons on the throne, and put more emphasis on wiping out Portugal. Once all that is settled, you can look at how compliant the Bourbon is being and deal with him accordingly.
A spouse for Ferd. She doesn't have to be old enough. Simply born and living will do. In due time, she'll be old enough to bear a Bonaparte child. Nap could force a new dynasty name for the newlyweds.