AHC: Napoleon wins the Peninsular War

Is there a specific date you want the POD to occur after? Do you want to know specifically about changed Napoleon could have made to his plan? I’m asking because the mods generally frown on one sentence OPs, and I’m interested in the question myself.
 
Please clarify, when does he win? Is it before Austria mobilizes for war in 1809 (Reverse outcomes at the battles of Vimeiro or Bailén, or a more decisive outcome at Tudela in 1808)? Is it afterwards (Portugal occupied in 1810, or French victory at Albuera in 1811)? Is it right before the invasion of Russia (no disaster at Salamanca in 1812)? Is it afterwards (battles of Vitoria or the Pyrenees, which would likely only have guaranteed a rump kingdom in northeastern Spain for Joseph)?
 
It’s tough with Joseph as king. He just doesn’t have enough support in Spain, particularly from the church. Napoléon really should not have overthrown the Bourbons. Even if they were going to betray him, better to launch a punitive campaign against them than to try to rule Spain.
 
Please clarify, when does he win? Is it before Austria mobilizes for war in 1809 (Reverse outcomes at the battles of Vimeiro or Bailén, or a more decisive outcome at Tudela in 1808)? Is it afterwards (Portugal occupied in 1810, or French victory at Albuera in 1811)? Is it right before the invasion of Russia (no disaster at Salamanca in 1812)? Is it afterwards (battles of Vitoria or the Pyrenees, which would likely only have guaranteed a rump kingdom in northeastern Spain for Joseph)?

I would make the most likely possibility to actually be in the initial invasion. The first British commander prior to Wellington was an opponent of British involvement in Spain, and before he died at Corunna (why Wellington took command), he was making plans to leave Iberia to the French. If he lived, and did so, I find it very likely that a Spain left to the wolves would be much easier to conquer, as would be Portugal.
 
I would say who the best (and most likely) way for resolving the Spanish trouble is keep Joseph away from that crown. So you need a Bonaparte wife for Ferdinand VII of Spain:
a) have Napoleon deciding who Lucien’s daughters by Christine are valuable pawns indipendly by their father and marry the eldest girl to Ferdinand VII
b) have Napoleon and Lucien reconcile so who Lucien’s eldest daughter will be available for Ferdinand VII
c) give to Joseph and Julie a daughter born in 1795 or at least have their OTL oldest daughter Julie Joséphine (born in early 1796) surving so she will be available for Ferdinand VII
d) kill off Louis Bonaparte around 1807 so his widow and Napoleon’s stepdaughter Hortense (still in her middle 20s and about a year and half older than Ferdinand) will be free to remarry to Ferdinand VII...
 
Is there much more that I need to say?

The peninsular war was an absolute strategic mistake and even a geopolitical mistake. There was nothing to gain for napoleonic France, except a frail throne for Napoleon’s brother but at a cataclysmic cost for both France and Spain (Spain far more than France).

Victory could only be achieved if, by a kind of miracle, the British forces, the Spanish loyalist forces and the Portuguese forces decided this war would end. And they had no reason to because they had understood that attrition and harassment war was the only way not to lose.

This being said, ending the war and bringing back the 200.000 experienced troops stuck in Spain would probably enable Napoleonic France to win the 1813 campaign of Germany.
 
The guerilla war is one thing, but shouldn't Napoleon be able to defeat Wellington in a straight battle? This isn't naval war...
 

longsword14

Banned
but shouldn't Napoleon be able to defeat Wellington in a straight battle? This isn't naval war...
Sure, but Wellesley had always been told to not have all of Britain's main army ( which it definitely was by 1812 ) destroyed. He could defend but expecting defeat evacuate away from the Peninsula.
 
The guerilla war is one thing, but shouldn't Napoleon be able to defeat Wellington in a straight battle? This isn't naval war...

Wellington was very cautious in Spain due to knowing how politically important it was not to risk throwing away the British army at the time. He refused to attack a French army for days until the right circumstances came up, leading to the Battle of Salamanca. If Napoleon had gone back to Spain to face Wellington, he would have retreated to the Lines of Torres Vedras and Napoleon would have had incredible difficulty in dislodging him from there while trying to supply his troops.
 
Sure, but Wellesley had always been told to not have all of Britain's main army ( which it definitely was by 1812 ) destroyed. He could defend but expecting defeat evacuate away from the Peninsula.

That's sane - and what would Napoleon have to do to make him evacuate? And if it happened, would he try to come back later?
 
Either pull a victory in Russia, or put off the invasion of the Russian Empire for some time, and Napoleon should be able focus on Spain and have the troops and resources to put down Spain.
 
Sir John Moore won a strategic withdrawal, though it cost him his life. Have that fail and the troops which get away would be killed or taken prisoner

The Peninsular Campaign at that point was, if not lost, then retreated from

It would take Wellington's intervention in Portugal to switch things around, and Napoleon's invasion of Russia to convince him that he could push into Spain without risking being crushed

I don't know how many of Wellington's army were either survivors from Moore's, or people who could only be freed up because the survivors of Moore's were covering their positions, but I would imagine it was not insignificant
 
Napoleon's best chance at getting an insurmountable advantage in the Peninsula would have been to defeat the British Army and destroy it before it evacuated from A Coruña. Even better if it results in the death of Wellesley. Seeing the main British Army annihilated probably doesn't cause the British to surrender or seek terms, but even with the Grande Armeé's nose bloodied by a difficult set of foes, it could further discourage Austria and Russia from stepping out of line when their most steadfast ally is crushed in that fashion. The British will still be able to maintain control of the seas, but will need more time to raise and train a new army to face the French in the field. They may never get so lucky to get anyone near as talented as Wellesley lead it either.

Of course, this is the Napoleonic version of having your cake and eating it too. Napoleon would have been better off by keeping the Bourbons on the throne instead of his brother.
 
Of course, this is the Napoleonic version of having your cake and eating it too. Napoleon would have been better off by keeping the Bourbons on the throne instead of his brother.

This first and foremost. The Spanish were never going to accept Joseph. EVER. Yet, Napoleon would not accept that fact. Napoleon's blindness was he thought his success in creating puppet states in Italy and Germany for his mediocre siblings would work in Spain as well. Different culture, different country. He could have just left Ferdinand there, married him off to one of his nieces - something Ferdinand was eager to do - and everything would have been fine since Ferdinand was more of a brown-noser and lackey of Nappy than even Joseph was. And if he couldn't tolerate Ferdinand he could just install another one of Carlos IV's children or grandchildren (such as the recently dispossessed child King of Etruria) and rule in their name with a hand-picked Spanish Regent. But to put on the throne of Ferdinand and Isabel as "His Most Catholic Majesty" (a title the non-devout Joseph did indeed take up) someone who was not of F&I's blood, who was once a staunch anti-clerical Republican in the Revolutionary era, and was the brother of Spain's despoiler (even going so far as to accept French annexation of Catalonia, despite pledging at Bayonne never to see Spain taken apart) was madness.
 
This first and foremost. The Spanish were never going to accept Joseph. EVER. Yet, Napoleon would not accept that fact. Napoleon's blindness was he thought his success in creating puppet states in Italy and Germany for his mediocre siblings would work in Spain as well. Different culture, different country. He could have just left Ferdinand there, married him off to one of his nieces - something Ferdinand was eager to do - and everything would have been fine since Ferdinand was more of a brown-noser and lackey of Nappy than even Joseph was. And if he couldn't tolerate Ferdinand he could just install another one of Carlos IV's children or grandchildren (such as the recently dispossessed child King of Etruria) and rule in their name with a hand-picked Spanish Regent. But to put on the throne of Ferdinand and Isabel as "His Most Catholic Majesty" (a title the non-devout Joseph did indeed take up) someone who was not of F&I's blood, who was once a staunch anti-clerical Republican in the Revolutionary era, and was the brother of Spain's despoiler (even going so far as to accept French annexation of Catalonia, despite pledging at Bayonne never to see Spain taken apart) was madness.
The problem is who Napoleon had not really any niece to offer to Ferdinand as the only one remotely in the right age group was Lucien’s eldest daughter who was born in 1795. If Joseph’s eldest daughter, who was born in 1796, had not died young maybe she would be offered (sure the girl would be only12 years old in 1808 but that was acceptable).
 
Could he have known? With a lucky spy, perhaps?

He wanted to catch the British before they evacuated, but learned that Austria would declare war and abandoned the chase to Soult, who did not reach them until Coruna.

That said, the British at the time regarded it as a disaster as their army had been driven out of the country.
 
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I would make the most likely possibility to actually be in the initial invasion. The first British commander prior to Wellington was an opponent of British involvement in Spain, and before he died at Corunna (why Wellington took command), he was making plans to leave Iberia to the French. If he lived, and did so, I find it very likely that a Spain left to the wolves would be much easier to conquer, as would be Portugal.
If I recall correctly, Britain only got involved AFTER Spain won a battle and the French failed to fully capture Portugal. Had France succeeded a little better, Britain would have abandoned Portugal, and there would have been far less support for the Spanish guerrillas.

The nobility/upper class were willing to accept Joseph. Whatever was best to keep their own bank accounts intact. It was the lower classes who said hell no. But, overall, should have left one of the Bourbons on the throne, and put more emphasis on wiping out Portugal. Once all that is settled, you can look at how compliant the Bourbon is being and deal with him accordingly.

A spouse for Ferd. She doesn't have to be old enough. Simply born and living will do. In due time, she'll be old enough to bear a Bonaparte child. Nap could force a new dynasty name for the newlyweds.
 
If I recall correctly, Britain only got involved AFTER Spain won a battle and the French failed to fully capture Portugal. Had France succeeded a little better, Britain would have abandoned Portugal, and there would have been far less support for the Spanish guerrillas.

The nobility/upper class were willing to accept Joseph. Whatever was best to keep their own bank accounts intact. It was the lower classes who said hell no. But, overall, should have left one of the Bourbons on the throne, and put more emphasis on wiping out Portugal. Once all that is settled, you can look at how compliant the Bourbon is being and deal with him accordingly.

A spouse for Ferd. She doesn't have to be old enough. Simply born and living will do. In due time, she'll be old enough to bear a Bonaparte child. Nap could force a new dynasty name for the newlyweds.
I agree. In my opinion, the best course in the Peninsular War for France would be to ensure that Portugal is completely subdued, as well as capturing the Portuguese royal family, whose successful escape from Lisbon led Napoleon to declare King João as the only man who ever fooled him. After this, they can focus on Spain, and in the case that Ferdinand is, well, himself, replace him with Joseph (but if he’s complacent, keep him for the time being) and have Napoleon directly involve himself in Spain from the very beginning, to prevent a Bailen equivalent, as it was because of that battle that Austria declared war, which was something that Napoleon, if he had time to subdue Spain, could probably take care of in 1810 or 1811 or something if Austria was too fearful to actually open hostilities themselves. Now, with Iberia finally, firmly subdued, France’s southwestern flank is secured from attack and he is free to focus on Germany and Russia.
 
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