States could vote by instant run off - this makes it more likely that there would be no absolute majority in the Electoral college and more elections going to the House
States could vote by instant run off - this makes it more likely that there would be no absolute majority in the Electoral college and more elections going to the House
Or two rounds if none secure a majority in the first round (whether electoral votes or popular vote).How would a multiparty system change the presidential election system? The current system is unworkable with more than two parties, so it would have to be changed. I expect that there would be a switch to a popular vote FPTP system, like in Mexico.
What is that? Are the 'oddities' damaging or a helpful thing?
If the Republican Party never manages to bounce back from the Great Depression, say if there's no double-dip or something, the Democratic Party could wind up such a colossus that it begins to fracture in a way that promotes multiple parties being born from it and continuing, probably at first over segregation.
Here's Wilcoxchar's scenario:Someone made a scenario like this a while back, where just a small swing destroyed the GOP, let me see if I can find it...
I'm continuing my look at how badly the Republicans could have fallen in the earl 1930s. I already went through the Senate and House. In OTL, the balance of the Senate at the beginning of the 75th Congress was 75 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 2 Farmer-Labor, and 1 Progressive. However, with a slight percentage increase for the Democrats in the 1932, 1934, and 1936 Senate elections, the Republicans could have been down to only 9 Senators. The lone independent is George Norris of Nebraska.
![]()
Next is the House, where again the Republicans were already down by a huge margin. In OTL after the 1936 House elections, there were 334 Democrats, 88 Republicans, 8 Progressives (7 in Wisconsin, 1 in California), and 5 Farmer-Labor Representatives. After the tweaking, the shift is even worse, with the Republicans going down to only 40 House members! I also have William Lemke staying a member of the Union Party as Representative, since the Republican Party ITTL is sinking.
![]()
Now for the governors. At the beginning of 1937, there were 38 Democratic governors, 8 Republicans, 1 Farmer-Labor, and 1 Progressive. The Republicans were in California (thanks Upton Sinclair), Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, the Dakotas, and for some reason Maryland and New Jersey.
Of these, the previous elections in Maryland, New Jersey, and South Dakota were close. And with William Langer as governor and the Union Party surviving, I could see Langer joining it and bring the Non-Partisan League along with him. So the Republicans at worst could have been down to 4 governorships in 1937. Those governors are Frank Merriam, George Aiken, Francis Murphy, and Lewis Burrows.
With the Republicans this hurt after the Depression, is it likely they would splinter, and what would arise to replace them? I think Hiram Johnson (one of the few surviving R senators) would bolt to the Progressives and boost them in California. The growing gap between conservative Southern Democrats and FDR would probably also lead to a split eventually, while rump Republican parties stay on in the far west and New England.
I've been meaning to put the Senate election summary up for a few days, so here it is. An underline denotes a change from OTL. Additional notes are in brackets.
1932:
AL: Hugo Black (D) reelected
AZ: Carl Hayden (D) reelected
AR: Hattie Caraway (D) elected
CA: William Gibbs McAdoo (D) defeats Tallant Tubbs (R)
CO: Walter Walker (D) reelected [Walker defeats Republican Karl Schuyler in the special election ITTL so it's him instead of Alva Adams]
CT: Augustine Lonergan (D) defeats Hiram Bingham III (R)
FL: Duncan Fletcher (D) reelected
GA: Walter F. George (D) reelected
ID: James Pope (D) defeats John Thomas (R)
IL: William Heinrich (D) defeats Otis Glenn (R)
IN: Frederick Van Nuys (D) defeats James Watson (R)
IA: Richard Murphy (D) defeats Henry Field (R)
KS: George McGill (D) reelected
KY: Alben Barkley (D) reelected
LA: John Overton (D) succeeds Edwin Broussard (D)
MD: Millard Tydings (D) reelected
MO: Bennett Champ Clark (D) succeeds Harry Hawes (D)
NV: Patrick McCarran (D) defeats Tasker Oddie (R)
NH: Fred Brown (D) defeats George Moses (R)
NY: Robert Wagner (D) reelected
NC: Robert Reynolds (D) succeeds Cameron Morrison (D)
ND: Gerald Nye (R) reelected
OH: Robert Bulkley (D) reelected
OK: Elmer Thomas (D) reelected
OR: Frederick Steiwer (R) reelected
PA: Lawrence Rupp (D) defeats James J. Davis (R)
SC: Ellison D. Smith (D) reelected
SD: Peter Norbeck (R) reelected [Norbeck dies on Dec. 20, 1936, Herbert Hitchcock (D) appointed to replace him]
UT: Elbert Thomas (D) defeats Reed Smoot (R)
VT: Porter Dale (R) reelected
WA: Homer T. Bone (D) defeats Wesley Jones (R)
WI: F. Ryan Duffy (D) defeats John Chapple (R)
Special elections:
GA, Class 2: Richard Russell (D) elected
NJ, Class 2: Percy H Stewan (D) defeats W. Warren Barbour (R)
Senate composition at beginning of 73rd Congress: 61 D 34 R 1 FL
1934:
AZ: Henry Ashurst (D) reelected
CA: Hiram Johnson (R) reelected
CT: Francis Maloney (D) defeats Frederick Walcott (R)
DE: Wilbur Adams (D) defeats John Townsend Jr. (R)
FL: Park Trammell (D) reelected
IN: Sherman Minton (D) defeats Arthur R. Robinson (R)
ME: Frederick Dubord (D) defeats Frederick Hale (R)
MD: George Radcliffe (D) defeats Joseph France (R)
MA: David Walsh (D) reelected
MI: Frank Picard (D) defeats Arthur Vandenberg (R)
MN: Henrik Hempstead (FL) reelected
MS: Theodore Bilbo (D) succeeds Hubert Stephens (D)
MO: Harry Truman (D) defeats Roscoe Patterson (R)
MT: Burton K. Wheeler (D) reelected
NE: Edward Burke (D) succeeds Richard Hunter (D)
NV: Key Pittman (D) reelected
NJ: A. Henry Moore (D) defeats Hamilton Kean (R)
NM: Dennis Chavez (D) defeats Branson Cutting (R)
NY: Royal Copeland (D) reelected
ND: Lynn Frazier (R) reelected
OH: Vic Donahey (D) defeats Simeon Hess (R)
PA: Joseph Guffey (D) defeats David Reed (R)
RI: Pete Gerry (D) defeats Keith Herbert (R)
TN: Kenneth McKellar (D) reelected
TX: Tom Connally (D) reelected
UT: William King (D) reelected
VT: Fred C. Martin (D) defeats Warren Austin (R)
VA: Harry Byrd (D) reelected
WA: Lewis Schwellenbach (D) succeeds Clarence Dill (D)
WV: Rush Holt (D) defeats Harry Hatfield (R)
WI: Robert La Follette Jr. (R) reelected as Progressive
WY: Joseph Mahoney (D) reelected
Senate composition at beginning of 74th Congress: 75 D 19 R 1 FL 1 P
Special:
MT, Class 2: James Murray (D) elected
NM, Class 2: Carl Hatch (D) elected
TN, Class 2: Nathan Bachman (D) elected
1936:
AL: John Bankhead II (D) reelected
AR: Joseph T. Robinson (D) reelected
CO: Edwin Johnson (D) succeeds Edward Castigan (D)
DE: James Hughes (D) defeats Daniel Hastings (R)
GA: Richard Russell Jr. (D) reelected
ID: William Borah (R) reelected
IL: James Lewis (D) reelected
IA: Clyde Herring (D) defeats Lester Dickinson (R)
KS: Omar Ketchum (D) defeats Arthur Capper (R)
KY: Marvel Logan (D) reelected
LA: Allen Ellender (D) succeeds Rose McConnell Long (D)
ME: Louis J. Brann (D) defeats Wallace White Jr. (R)
MA: Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (R) defeats James M. Curley (D) [this is the only Republican pickup in the Senate of the entire cycle]
MI: Prentiss Brown (D) defeats Wilbur Brucker (R)
MN: Ernest Lundeen (FL) succeeds Elmer Benson (FL)
MS: Pat Harrison (D) reelected
MT: James Murray (D) reelected
NE: George Norris (R) reelected as Independent
NH: Styles Bridges (R) succeeds Henry Keyes (R)
NJ: Percy H. Stewan (D) reelected [marked this as a change since W. Warren Barbour lost the special election in '32 here; in OTL William Smathers defeated Barbour]
NM: Carl Hatch (D) reelected
NC: Josiah Bailey (D) reelected
OK: Josh Lee (D) succeeds Thomas Gore (D)
OR: Willis Mahoney (D) defeats Charles McNary (R) [In OTL, Senate minority leader McNary barely held his seat by a 51-48 margin]
RI: Theodore Green (D) defeats Jesse Metcalf (R)
SC: James Byrnes (D) reelected
SD: William Bulow (D) reelected
TN: Nathan Bachman (D) reelected
TX: Morris Sheppard (D) reelected
VA: Carter Glass (D) reelected
WV: Matthew Neely (D) reelected
WY: Harry Schwartz (D) defeats Robert Carey (R)
Special:
FL, Class 1: Charles Andrews (D) succeeds Scott Loftin (D)
FL, Class 3: Claude Pepper (D) succeeds William Luther Hill (D) [both Florida senators died in 1936 and their replacement appointees declined to run to finish their terms]
IA, Class 3: Guy Gilette (D) elected
NM, Class 1: N/A [With Dennis Chavez defeating Branson Cutting in 1934, no special election is needed when Cutting dies]
Senate composition at beginning of 75th Congress: 84 D 8 R 2 FL 1 P 1 I
I really should do something more with this at some point.Here's Wilcoxchar's scenario:
I imagine the Progressives in the GOP, which make up most of their Senate caucus now it seems, would defect and join the Wisconsin Progressive Party, which may or may not join with the Farmer-Labor Party. A defection of the left to this party (or these two parties) seems likely, while the Southern Dems go independent (probably after FDR dies if he's succeeded by someone pro civil rights like Truman)I really should do something more with this at some point.
The idea I had was indeed for the Democrats to slowly crack and fracture under their own weight, probably with things fully splintering once FDR dies.
IIRC my original idea would also have small remnant pieces of the GOP left in places like northern New England and the Plains.
Yeah, I agree with this. The real challenge is for the creation of a different electoral system to allow for multiple parties to survive long term.Historically when you had more than two parties in the USA, either the third party had a relatively brief existence, think the "Know-Nothings" or the Socialists, or the new "third" party survived while one of the established parties faded away, think Whigs and Republicans. Then of course there were one time, single issue efforts (Dixiecrats). There are third parties that have a structure, are important in local/state races, and sometimes have folks elected under their banner as opposed to as part of a fusion coalition. Some of these parties have elected folks at the federal level to the house or senate. The problem with an enduring multiparty system is the electoral college system. Because if nine of the candidates gets the 50% + 1 majority votes in the electoral college, the election goes to the House, which tends to make it difficult for a third party to win. Without changing that system, which would be a huge thing, third (or more) parties will remain a local/stae phenomenon unless they become one of the majors, in which case they are no longer a "third party".
Indeed. The EC does encourage a 'big tent' two party system for the Presidency, and that carries over into the Congressional elections.... the President needs the support of like minded people in Congress to get anything done, so the 'big tent' forms to support elections all around. About the only way to get a lasting multi-party system here is to do away with the EC. What happens next depends a lot on just what other system is adopted...The problem with an enduring multiparty system is the electoral college system.