AHC: Most Devastating Franco-British War Possible

[whitecrow]

So I was thinking for some time about doing a TL. It would be more on the fun side rather than some of the uber-detailed and analytical TLs out here (read: I’m too lazy to do very in-depth research). One of the things in the hypothetical TL I’ve been thinking about is an ATL WW1 analog fought between Britain and France that won the Franco-Prussian War and is the top dog of continental Western Europe.

So the question is, sometime between 1870 and 1920, how can you have a war that totally ruins and bankrupts both France and U.K. so that they come out of the conflict as shadows of their former selves on the world stage (e.g.: damage to the industrial base, London no longer able to control India, etc.)?

 

[Baconheimer]

One with Poison gas used in excess against civilians would be especially sevestatimg.

 

[SRT]

Well British foreign policy in this era was generally focused around maintaining a balance of power on the continent so that precisely that couldn't happen. If France was victorious in the Franco-Prussian war, I suppose they could determine what happened with Germany to a certain degree, and that is probably the most crucial part of this TL's early stages. I think we can safely say that Alsace-Lorraine stays French for the time being, but beyond that I don't know what France's war goals were in the Franco-Prussian War. I guess there are a few major options.

However, it seems that Britain would immediately act to try and maintain the balance of power, thus leading them to support... whatever is going on in Germany.

 

[whitecrow]

So you think Britain might try to buddy up with Russia more?

 

[Direwolf22]

So you think Britain might try to buddy up with Russia more?

No. Anglo-Russian rivalry at an all time high. Britain might ally with beaten Prussia against dominant France which may buddy with Austria (who have recently fought against Prussia and Italy).

So Britain, Prussia and Italy vs. France and Austria

Russia may back F-A so Turks may go pro-British


This of course in the event of a French victory in the Franco-Prussian war.

 

[Kome]

Well British foreign policy in this era was generally focused around maintaining a balance of power on the continent so that precisely that couldn't happen. If France was victorious in the Franco-Prussian war, I suppose they could determine what happened with Germany to a certain degree, and that is probably the most crucial part of this TL's early stages. I think we can safely say that Alsace-Lorraine stays French for the time being, but beyond that I don't know what France's war goals were in the Franco-Prussian War. I guess there are a few major options.

However, it seems that Britain would immediately act to try and maintain the balance of power, thus leading them to support... whatever is going on in Germany.

Prussian troops are literally walking in Paris, and the 30 some states of the German Confederation have unified into the economic superpower that is the German Empire. The League of Three Emperors creates an alliance between the new Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary, plus Italy is already pretty friendly with the Germans after fighting a war alongside them? British Reaction: Do not interfere, this is not cause for alarm.

France wins the Franco-Prussian war? British Reaction: Muh balance of power. We must intervene immediately.

Im not seeing it.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Prussian troops are literally walking in Paris, and the 30 some states of the German Confederation have unified into the economic superpower that is the German Empire. The League of Three Emperors creates an alliance between the new Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary, plus Italy is already pretty friendly with the Germans after fighting a war alongside them? British Reaction: Do not interfere, this is not cause for alarm.

France wins the Franco-Prussian war? British Reaction: Muh balance of power. We must intervene immediately.

Im not seeing it.

Well remember this is the 19th century, not modern times. The last time France had beat the German states was under the Napoleonic Empire. There was always the fear that France would return to that superpower status, especially under a Bonaparte. Plus remember Prussia was more or less an ally of Britain, which makes the German Empire a friendly nation. Austria would be no real threat, really Russia would be the only threat to British security. France, on the other hand, was a bit like a caged beast, content for the time being but could easily become a feral animal.

 

[LordKalvan]

Prussian troops are literally walking in Paris, and the 30 some states of the German Confederation have unified into the economic superpower that is the German Empire. The League of Three Emperors creates an alliance between the new Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary, plus Italy is already pretty friendly with the Germans after fighting a war alongside them? British Reaction: Do not interfere, this is not cause for alarm.

France wins the Franco-Prussian war? British Reaction: Muh balance of power. We must intervene immediately.

Im not seeing it.

It's quite different:

1. A German empire may become an economic superpower, but that's for the future. France OTOH is already an economic superpower and the only real world challenge for the British
2. France controls the Channel ports, and a successful France would certainly sniff at Flandres (so also Antwerp is at risk)
3. In 1870 the German empire (newly born) has no kind of navy that can threaten the British supremacy. France is quite different, not to mention that is the only nation (besides UK) with a capacity to project power to the Indian Ocean and the Far East.
4. France's goals if they win the 1870 war would be the Rheinland, Luxembourg and - as I said before - southern Flanders and Antwerp. All these targets would cause a major costernation in London
5. Even worse if France strikes an alliance with A-H and Russia. Now the Balkans are at risk, including the Straits, the Far East ditto and even India becomes potentially at risk.

All of these geopolitic considerations would be reinforced by the memory of the Anglo-French wars of the 18th century and by the Napoleonic scare of the early 19th century.
I would be very much surprised if a French victory in 1870 would not lead to a general war by 1880-1885

 

[robcraufurd]

British Reaction: Do not interfere, this is not cause for alarm.

Bear in mind that:
a) The French, on the surface, seemed to have started it. "From the very moment that Germany, insulted in the person of the King of Prussia and challenged to mortal combat by the Emperor of the French, flew to arms to repel the threatened aggression, the voice of the whole German nation has consistently declared that they would not lay down their arms until they had reduced France to such a state of prostration, and given her such a lesson on the horrors of war, as would guarantee them from the recurrence of such outbreaks of French ambition for the future" (Times, 7 September 1870)

b) The Prussians were definitely under-rated. "Prussia is always leaning on somebody, always getting somebody to help her, never willing to help herself; always ready to deliberate, never to decide; present in Congresses, but absent in battles; speaking and writing, never for or against, but only on the question; ready to supply any amount of ideals or sentiments, but shy of anything that savours of the real or actual. She has a large army, but notoriously one in no condition for fighting. She is profuse in circulars and notes, but has generally a little to say for both sides. No-one counts on her as a friend; no one dreads her as an enemy. How she became a great Power history tells us; why she remains so nobody can tell. That, acting on her present principle she can long remain so, nobody believes." (Times, 6 November 1860)

I don't think that Britain would immediately leap in to maintain the balance of power by force, though she might try moral suasion via a Congress. However, a victorious France is more likely to attract attention than a victorious Germany.