AHC: More successful and surviving Ottoman Empire

[VadisDeProfundis]

While other states rose and fell, the Ottoman Empire was seemingly in a continuous decline for centuries on end, it went through massive periods of huge political unrest, it lost the most profitable, developed and educated parts of the empire, and eventually collapsed after being defeated in the Great War. Could this trajectory have changed at some point?

With a PoD after the French Revolution, have the Ottoman Empire survive to the present day, have it be as powerful as possible, a liberal democratic polity(preferably still Ottoman, a monarchy that is, but if you can get a similar result with a Republic then all the better) with as much of the Balkans as possible in its grasp, or in its sphere of influence if not directly in its empire. Could the sick man of Europe be cured?

 

[BBadolato]

Shining the @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha signal. I'm not so sure about Ottoman history myself, but my understanding is that the Janissaries where starting to prove to be a self-interested faction that was concerned more with playing politics, and the Harem system designed to prevent the problem of fratricide and civil war started to produce questionable sultans by the time of the French Revolution.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Will reply to this when I'm home...

 

[Wendell]

While I think it is plausible and interesting to have an Ottoman Empire surviving to the present (in more or less 1914 or modern Turkish borders), I'm inclined to the view that our own timeline is an Ottomanwank.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

While I think it is plausible and interesting to have an Ottoman Empire surviving to the present (in more or less 1914 or modern Turkish borders), I'm inclined to the view that our own timeline is an Ottomanwank.

It is as possible as 1804 borders. Hell, with a bit of luck it may even be possible with 1768 with an existing Crimean Khanate. But it would have to change some structures.

The 1914 border is likely but it makes the Empires defense harder in Europe. I guess a vast majority Muslim Ottoman State has more positive effects...

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Shining the @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha signal. I'm not so sure about Ottoman history myself, but my understanding is that the Janissaries where starting to prove to be a self-interested faction that was concerned more with playing politics, and the Harem system designed to prevent the problem of fratricide and civil war started to produce questionable sultans by the time of the French Revolution.

The Janissaries were starting to be a problem since Murad III rule. But actually grabbing power and replacing the Sultan with their sons/brothers/nephews was starting to be problem since 1622. The Sultans weakness, old age, young age did not help either. The biggest problem were the heirs being kept in the Palace and being raised as total nitwits. The Sultans between Ahmed III and Selim III were something like this. That is about 4 Sultans and 59 years. Crucial years to say at least. The Janissary Corps expanding, weak Sultans and weak Grand Viziers pretty much prevented any chance of containing the Janissary Corps up until 1826.

If I remember correctly... about 7 sultans were deposed by Janissary Revolts. That is between 1618 and 1807. That is 189 year and 7 of the 15 Sultans. And of course as you say, many Sultans were also pretty much... weak... to say at least.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

While other states rose and fell, the Ottoman Empire was seemingly in a continuous decline for centuries on end, it went through massive periods of huge political unrest, it lost the most profitable, developed and educated parts of the empire, and eventually collapsed after being defeated in the Great War. Could this trajectory have changed at some point?

With a PoD after the French Revolution, have the Ottoman Empire survive to the present day, have it be as powerful as possible, a liberal democratic polity(preferably still Ottoman, a monarchy that is, but if you can get a similar result with a Republic then all the better) with as much of the Balkans as possible in its grasp, or in its sphere of influence if not directly in its empire. Could the sick man of Europe be cured?

It most definitely could survive. The decline problem was largely between 1774 and 1833. The reason I point this era out was the territorial losses and decline in Military Effectiveness. By 1850s they started to regain some strength. The only problem was the Russian Threat and the low Manpower in comparison with Russia and Austria. The war of 1877-78 could almost be won if the Russians were forced back to the Danube Beachheads. Osman Pasha repelled three of the four Russian attacks on Plevna, if Suleiman Pasha and Mehmed Ali Pasha had their Forces combined they could have relieved Plevna and drove the Russian Forces back. If a Russian defeat can cause the Great Powers to start a conference then the Ottoman State with most of the Balkans can be preserved... This without Serbia, Greece and Montenegro. This is also the most likely era to preserve the Empire. Anytime before 1833 is a bit different.

With a PoD after 1789, the Ottomans can survive. The best PoD is Selim III not declaring war on Russia in 1806 and actively disbanding the Janissary Corps as a result. The Russians are kept away from the Danube. and the Ottomans can consolidate their authority back in the Balkans. If the Ottomans keep both the Balkans and Egypt under direct rule and start the reform period about 40 years earlier then they might remain a more or less a great power in name for the first decades after the Congress of Vienna.

 

[EMT]

It is as possible as 1804 borders. Hell, with a bit of luck it may even be possible with 1768 with an existing Crimean Khanate. But it would have to change some structures.

The 1914 border is likely but it makes the Empires defense harder in Europe. I guess a vast majority Muslim Ottoman State has more positive effects...

I'd go even further back to the time of Selim I. Have Ismail I of the Safavids die at the battle of Chaldiran, resulting in the Ottomans overrunning most of Ismail's domains. Something like this, with the colored lines denoting theoretical borders depending on how successful the Ottomans are in their conquest. They've got to either reach an accord with or actively fight the Uzbek khans' raid parties. The easy answer is to set up buffer states and leave Afghanistan/Herat to vassals that have to deal with the nomad raiders.

This has a couple of major effects:

* The Ottomans turn most of their attention away from European expansion in the short to medium term as the Middle East is essentially a power vacuum
* The Ottomans become far more invested in Silk Road trade and have access to more ports in the Indian Ocean
* The Persian Gulf becomes an Ottoman lake in the longterm
* Iran never goes majority Shiite
* The Ottomans have no major eastern threats in the form of organized states and can use Eastern Persia as a buffer against nomad empires that are slowly becoming less and less severe threats to settled states
* With no major remaining Muslim state in the Middle East to contest the Ottomans, their status as Caliphs is even more ironclad once they inevitably roll over the Mamlukes
* Battle of Mohacs/Ottoman overextension in the Balkans is butterflied
* Selim I's death to disease is probably butterflied too, Suleiman I's reign is butterflied from it's OTL form

This gives you a huge window to play with to change Ottoman/Middle Eastern history. Without the Ottomans overunning Hungary, Christian-Ottoman dynamics change drastically and also keeps the Empire more centered in the Middle East, what with the conquest of Persia to capitalize on. This results in the Ottomans better developing the Levant and Iraq is built up now that it's no longer a frontier province. This also provides an ample window for the Empire to centralize and lean less heavily on autonomous Pashas to rule more distant provinces that are exposed militarily. IMO this is one of the best and most underused PODs for the Ottoman Empire that will result in a net positive for the fate of the Ottomans and the people under its borders.