AHC: More resilient Poland in WWII

M. Adolphe Thiers

How exactly could the Polish military be better equipped to deal with the initial German invasion in 1939? This doesn't necessarily mean that they repel them from Poland, but could they manage to put up a better defensive campaign than OTL?

I remember reading that the major problem that Poland had was that they were disadvantaged by Germany's economies of scale in producing equipment like tanks and aircraft, and that all of their planning was dependent upon a greater show of force by Britain and France than what actually happened.

So, is Poland more or less doomed to be overrun as is, outside of an earlier war say without the Munich agreement?
 

KACKO

One easy fix would be if Czechoslovak air force in March 14-15th deserted in mass to Poland. Polish Air Force would get couple of hundreds extra planes. Even if not on pair with Bf 109, it would surely help. And no, this is not total ASB. There were some planes to do exactly that. But combination of very bad weather plus some other factors played role.

Another factor could be better Polish - Czechoslovak relation and maybe some joint development of more modern fighter planes/ other weapons. Polish PZL-50 looked promising, so does Czechoslovak Avia B-35/135.
 
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Zireael

The article raises some valid points, indeed. I didn't know about the airplane crash in the 30s nor about the weather.
 

seraphim74

The planes themselves are not enough - you need also all technological background, spare parts, ammunition, trained personel... OK, the last one is pretty easy, if enough Czechoslovakian airmen escapes to Poland they can train Polish specialist. But Poland has no way to produce spare parts.
Better Polish-Czechoslovak relations might end with no Munich at all, since Poles might very well back Czechoslovakians against Germany seeing Hitler as a common enemy (while Poland originally had actually pretty decent relations with III Reich Poles didn't trust Germans at all).
To be honest the best way to make Poles perform better in 1939 is change of command, say, in 1938. Perhaps Śmigły-Rydz has a heart attack or an accident during manouvers end with his death (and a few generals too). President Mościcki nominates general Kazimierz Sosnkowski as Polish Commander in Chief. Sosnkowski would be, IMHO, a better commander for Polish Campaign. He was a good organizer and he did not believe in his own legend as Śmigły-Rydz did (again, IMO). IOTL Sosnkowski was kept away from any command until 10th of September, when he was given command of Southern Front. In fact he commanded only Army "Karpaty", but he fought quite well, proving himself as energetic and aggressive commander. Of course there is a difference between commanding a single (and small) army and commanding whole campaign, but still.
A few others details: sudden change of weather on September 1st grounds Luftwaffe; Germans do not modify Enigma in 1939, so Poles are capable of reading German codes; during German aborted invasion on August 26th more units cross Polish border before withdrawing making German threat more obvious to the western allies who do not force Poland to call off the mobilisation; Sosnkowski, being more diplomatic, manages to gain bigger financial help from France, including money to buy some radios for Polish commanders... etc.
All of that could have made Poland perform better. But I do not believe Poles could have won on their own., wthout western help They might, however, cause Germans much more trouble.
 
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jmc247

M. Adolphe Thiers said:
How exactly could the Polish military be better equipped to deal with the initial German invasion in 1939?
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You mean the German and Soviet invasion? Poland did face a two front war if you recall. Their best hope was fighting the Germans in the Eastern part of the country with German supply lines streached, but that was where the Red Army was advancing from. Poland OTL was screwed even with better weapons as Stalin was going to jump in after the initial German victories in the western part of the country which I think were pretty much certain.
 

Bob in Pittsburgh

The absolute best thing for Poland would have been no Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. Remember the Poles had to defend both borders. A Soviet pledge of non intervention or active support would have allowed the Poles to concentrate on their western enemy. Some action, other than a paper declaration of war by France would also have helped a great deal.
 

alternatehistorian

Poland would need to have a competitive aircraft industry and produce the P-35 sooner than it did. (EDIT: the plane is the PZL P 50, not the P-35) They would have to find a more powerful engine for that airplane and make at least 1000 of them. They would also need a dive bomber which would interdict German supply lines. A lot of excellent airplanes. This was doable if they had merely decided to compete with German aircraft industry. A lot of very different choices would have to be made to make this a reality.

The best solution would be to find a way to weaken Nazi Germany somehow, through covert operations, perhaps through an assassination program of key aircraft designers or brightest generals.
 
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jmc247

Magnificate said:
Has any state managed it? Or even attempted it? Ever?
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Some have attempted it and I know some scientists have been killed by spies, but going after generals... well lets just say they are much more high profile and harder to kill, but if you do manage to kill a few you might as well hand Germany a legitimite DoW that even France and the UK would have trouble coming to the aid of Poland in case of.
 

alternatehistorian

Magnificate said:
Has any state managed it? Or even attempted it? Ever?
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Who knows? There would be no way to tell, would there? Consider the 1931 death of a Polish aircraft designer Zygmunt Pulawski. Was it just an accident or the work of Germans? But it is certain that his death was a direct cause of Poland not having a new generation of fighter planes.
 

alternatehistorian

jmc247 said:
Some have attempted it and I know some scientists have been killed by spies, but going after generals... well lets just say they are much more high profile and harder to kill, but if you do manage to kill a few you might as well hand Germany a legitimite DoW that even France and the UK would have trouble coming to the aid of Poland in case of.
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Assuming plausible deniability, a general dying in a car crash or having a heart attack would tell the Nazis nothing. Even if a few died of various causes, unless Germany had direct proof, it would have nothing. Also, you just need to eliminate or or two people to profoundly hobble Nazi capabilities: suppose that they can arrange for an accidental death of Willy Messerschmidt in 1931 because they think that the Nazis killed Pulawski and retaliate by eliminating Willy (the Chicago Way). There would be no ME 109 or any other breakthrough aircraft in 1939.
 
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jmc247

alternatehistorian said:
Assuming plausible deniability, a general dying in a car crash or having a heart attack would tell the Germans nothing. Even if a few died of various causes, unless Germany had direct proof, it would have nothing.
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Scientists have been targeted and killed successfully that way, not so much generals as militaries have their own people they can trust implicitly from the years in the army everywhere as well as armed people with tons of weapons nearly everywhere they go except home and often they are well armed at home as well.

Spies trying to kill generals the indirect silent way usually doesn't work. Hell, them trying to kill them the direct way usually doesn't work either. Its hard to kill someone who is part of the most heavily armed parts of society with its own ultra loyal community around them. That same bubble disconnects them from the rest of society a fair bit by the way.
 

alternatehistorian

jmc247 said:
Scientists have been targeted and killed successfully that way, not so much generals as militaries have their own people they can trust implicitly from the years in the army everywhere as well as armed people with tons of weapons nearly everywhere they go except home and often they are well armed at home as well.

Spies trying to kill generals the indirect silent way usually doesn't work. Hell, them trying to kill them the direct way usually doesn't work either. Its hard to kill someone who is part of the most heavily armed parts of society with its own ultra loyal community around them. That same bubble disconnects them from the rest of society a fair bit by the way.
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Suppose that shortly after publishing his book on armored warfare Guderian suffers a heart attack or dies in a hit and run accident? in 1929 he wasn't much of a high profile figure so his untimely death would be mourned but forgotten.
 

jmc247

alternatehistorian said:
Suppose that shortly after publishing his book on armored warfare Guderian suffers a heart attack or dies in a hit and run accident? in 1929 he wasn't much of a high profile figure so his untimely death would be mourned but forgotten.
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The military bubble I was talking about even applies to lower ranking officers then generals. Its easier for a regime to have a general or high level officer have an accident then it is a spy, but still not easy to do it or more to the point do it without anyone knowing about it.

These things do get tried from time to time, but it is the military society bubble that officers and generals find themselves in that makes it very hard for a foreign intelligence agent to penetrate their world, find out who is the best at what and kill those people. Even the security apparatus that exists in many dictatorships often struggle to penetrate the world of their officers for issues of surveillance and potental liquidation of officers and generals for disloyality to the regime.
 

Tizoc

This is getting ridiculous. Assassinations. Why not bats from outer space?

The main problem poland faced was money and cadres - i.e. there was shortage of aircraft engineers and all supporting staff, which resulted in Polish design bureaus being on average of 1/3 size of British ones IIRC.

Yes, something could be done better - i.e. if in 1929 Wright Cyclone license was bought instead of Bristol Jupiter - in 1939 most of fighters would be PZL-24 analogues. Not mentioning that Wright didn't restrict exporting license-built engines, unlike Bristol, so there won't be a need for developing aircraft with Gnome-Rhone engines for export, which would save money and time...
 

Admiral Matt

Yeah, it's being made harder than it is.

The invasion of Poland was a delicate flower among German WWII offensives. They threw in what they had as best they could and happened to win, at which point the Soviets deigned to become involved. If something had gone really wrong, they would have had very little ability to salvage the situation. The Soviets would have held off to give them a chance to bleed themselves, and by the time the Germans had gotten their victory it would be too late to space out Scandinavia, the Low Countries, and France.
 

KACKO

alternatehistorian said:
Who knows? There would be no way to tell, would there? Consider the 1931 death of a Polish aircraft designer Zygmunt Pulawski. Was it just an accident or the work of Germans? But it is certain that his death was a direct cause of Poland not having a new generation of fighter planes.
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Well, it is not just that. Poland and Czechoslovakia invested significant amount of money and time to acquire bomber planes. PZL-37 in case of Poland and B-71 in case of Czechoslovakia. If same amount of money and time would be invested into modern fighter plane, they position could be much better. Even in case of Czechoslovakia, weakness of Air Force to defend against Luwtwaffe play huge role in politics and decission making, I think.

So, I believe problem with acquiring modern fighter planes lays even more in faulty doctrine then anything else.
 
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