AHC: More Powerful Argentina

I don't know very much about Argentina, but from what I've seen since the end of WWII they have been a mess of military dictatorships with no clear alignment and a pretty bad economy. Your challenge is to get a stable government in power and by 2013 have them be on the level of Brazil or better economically. I don't care what their alignment is, I just want to see how it would affect the Cold War and their place in the world.
 
Establish any coastal town/city with more than 30k people as a proto-charter city with a high level of sovereignty for that city, relatively low taxes and few restrictions on immigration and international investment. Have this happen after a national constitution re-write headed by a foreign 'good capitalist' like George F. Johnson.

Ideally you get dozens of little Hong Kongs or Singapores. That is unlikely to occur with the level of success those cities received, but I would imagine the Purchasing Power Parity would be at near US levels compared to OTL (which is already high by South American standards).

Better yet, have Daniel Burnham design these cities like he designed Chicago and Manila if this timeline deviates sometime in the early 1900's. All these things This would give you a fairly powerful country by the 1990's.
 
Argentina has several Dictatorships and Civil Wars before WWII, it did'nt just magically start after 1945.

That said, it's possible to make Argentina yes, personally I think 1930 coup d'etat not being successful and Argentina remaining a democracy would definitely make it better off as it would ultimately prevent Peron from getting in charge, given he basically obliterated Argentina's economy.
 
Maybe sth like this: La Larga y Oscura Noche. POD in 1955.

A good TL, but not exactly what I'm looking for. I want to see a stable government take power and see what they can do for the country. They have great mineral resources in the Andes, agricultural areas roughly equivalent to California in the Pampas, and oil right off of their coast. I think with the right TL, they could be the most powerful country in South America.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Ideally you get dozens of little Hong Kongs or Singapores. That is unlikely to occur with the level of success those cities received, but I would imagine the Purchasing Power Parity would be at near US levels compared to OTL (which is already high by South American standards).

Hong Kong is a very special case: it prospered because it was the main allowed gateway to the Chinese market. You don't repeat its success or Singapore's remotely by just setting up "free trade" cities.
 
In general lines:

- Major political and economic reform during the 1910s and 1920s....so, no 1930 coup

- More immigration flow during the 20th. Century. OTL Argentina population is smaller than the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo.

- No Perón or at least that Peronism is largely forgotten after the 1950s (somewhat similar that what happened in Brazil with Getulio Vargas)

- A more "civilized" military. If there is military dictatorship, this dictatorship should be "softer and more civilized" than the OTL 1976-1983 Junta...no mass killings, no dirty war.

- No Falklands War

- A more stable political system, where the country is not torned apart with mass lootings and protests fuelled by political parties during economic crisis.
 

amphibulous

Banned
In general lines:

- Major political and economic reform during the 1910s and 1920s....so, no 1930 coup

I think this is it: Argentina is near the top of per capita per head in theory, but the wealth is very concentrated. Reforms to create a more even wealth distribution are needed. Tariff barriers to help selected industries grow might help, but they have to be applied carefully, making sure the industry is there to pick up the slack. If you get these things right then you get more immigrants, avoid Peronism, etc.
 
I think this is it: Argentina is near the top of per capita per head in theory, but the wealth is very concentrated. Reforms to create a more even wealth distribution are needed. Tariff barriers to help selected industries grow might help, but they have to be applied carefully, making sure the industry is there to pick up the slack. If you get these things right then you get more immigrants, avoid Peronism, etc.

That's it....the major mistake was not starting to diversify the economy during the "Cattle Boom of the 1900s and 1910s"....during that time Argentina behaved much like the Arab countries during the 1970s....rich but extremely conservative.

Hipólito Yrigoyen tryed to reform Argentina during his first Presidency (1916 - 1922) but it was too late as the boom was entering its final years given WWI and the following government, Marcelo T. Alvear, dismantelated many of the reforms conducted by Yrigoyen.
 

amphibulous

Banned
That's it....the major mistake was not starting to diversify the economy during the "Cattle Boom of the 1900s and 1910s"....during that time Argentina behaved much like the Arab countries during the 1970s....rich but extremely conservative.

That's because politicians are trying to keep a few wealthy people rich instead of doing what's best for the country. Later you get populists who make things worse by blaming foreigners and buying short term support instead of solving long term problems.

It's always tempting to suppose that the solution to crises like these is a benign dictator or the military... but I can only thank of a handful of times when this has worked out instead of being a disaster.
 
Other POD is a cultural one...Argentinian politics until today are extremely polarized...or you love Peron or you hate it, or you are for democracy or you despise democracy as a weak government, or you are completely free market oriented or you want total protectionism

Argentina needs more "middle ground" in its politics.....thats why Argentina never was able to leave the Peronist populism like Brazil did with Getulismo or Mexico did with the populist government of the PRI during the 50s and 60s....common political crisis that happens in every country like President and Vice-President disputes are like political hypercanes in Argentina that jeopardizes the economy or even the democratic system of the country.
 
Would have helped if Yrigoyen wasn't senile during his second term.

I guess that every South American president in 1929 - 1930 was faded to disaster....the "Conservatives Republics" of the early 20th. Century in countries like Brazil and Argentina were collapsing over social pressures and a more dynamic political arena, with the arrival of communism, socialism and social movements....it was too late to stop the 1930 coup, the weels of revolution were already in motion....
 

amphibulous

Banned
What amazes me is that no one in South America ever seems to read Conrad's "Nostromo." I'm sure that doing so would be a help - and all the East Europeans I know have read 1984.
 
1. Argentina wins war of confederation and absorbs Paraguay, Uruguay, and Riograndese Republics. Have stable if near-monarchical governments provide stability and attract lots of Catholic immigration, maybe Ireland, Spain, and Italy specifically. They can develop with some more time and energy with eventual involvement in Chile and Bolivia over the Pacific War in the 1880s, perhaps taking much of both countries. Improved infrastructure and less infighting could see such a country develop into a second tier power by 1914, especially if there is a successful conflict with Brazil somewhere in there.

In exchange for naval assistance, permission to maintain a naval base/telegraph station, and increased exports of food, Argentina negotiates the transfer of the Falkland Islands along with South Georgia for a considerable sum. Argentina also gets some technology transfer of second-rate UK tech as well, allowing her to advance in many areas. Following the war the Argentineans remain staunch British allies and also eye other territories, eventually conquering Peru as an ally of Ecuador and finishing off Chile. Argentina is careful not to press too hard on her conquests and allows major cities in conquered nations considerable autonomy though Paraguay and Uruguay are ruled as states of Argentina proper. Argentina also builds rail/road infrastructure to unite their nation (much more built than OTL by 1941). UK initially agrees to use Argentina and Brazil as resources in their early war efforts, leading to greatly increased cooperation between the two nations and the beginning of the South American Free Trade Union (UTLSA, or UTraLiSA in local parlance).

Argentina buys British Guyana to secure more land on the continent after the war and also makes Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela political.economic satellites over the next 30 years. The fall of the USSR sees Argentina recruit heavily in the devastated country and "Rusiapueblos" appear near major universities throughout the country. Physics, chemistry, agriculture, biology, and materials science beneft tremendously while her military is upgraded with top-of-the-line equipment from old Soviet stocks which is soon improved upon. By 2010, Argentina and Brazil (latter as a junior but distinct power) are in an economic union with most of Central America and the balance of South America.

Both nations are candidates for seats on the Security Council and represent the 5th and 7th largest economies in the world, respectively. Together the combined economic bloc is a competitor to Europe, North America, and Southeastern Asia. A unified currency is not yet present but soon to appear as the Peso Suramericana, and all schools on the continent teach at least Spanish, English, and Portugese. A combined space program has sent men and women into orbit and is preparing to put an independent space station in orbit as a challenge to the independent Chinese effort. They have five aircraft carriers and no official nuclear capacity though it is largely speculated that the Argentineans have up to 200 weapons ready for deployment as the Libertad-D rocket, "reliable as a Proton and as powerful as a Saturn V", can place a significant payload on lunar soil. Coincidentally many of her engineers are Russians, though native-born and mixed-born children are appearing in larger numbers at the facilities.

2. Have King Pedro II of Brazil die at any point early in his reign and *a lot* of the Brazilian rise to power is stopped. The end of slavery might also trigger a civil war that destroys much of the country and could lead to fragmentation, or at least significant decentralization.

3. Combine 1 and 2 for extra punch and maybe Santa Catarina, Mato Grasso, and Acre revolve to Buenos Aires. By 2010 maybe the whole continent is united, though that is a very long shot.

4. Get a stable post-WWII government without Peron that uses its technological infusions for better purposes and develops its resources in the name of the people. Avoid the Falkland Islands War if not the entire military coup altogether. A stable democracy could attract intelgensia from much of the dictatorship-ridden areas of South America and maybe even a few talented individuals from abroad. Should resources permit, have Argentina recruit heavily among Russian scholars to improve her own scientific/industrial base at the fall of the USSR. It would require some luck, but by doing so Argentina could be a match for or even exceed Brazil by 2010.
 
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