GarethC
Donor
It takes a bit of doing.I suggested if the Hungarian rebels were better organized in 1956 and able to push away the Soviet troops from Budapest, the Soviets might nuke the city.
(I admit this was inspired by how, in the Draka novels, rebels took over the city of Barcelona and the Draka nuked them.)
Someone with more knowledge of the USSR said the Soviets weren't nearly as "stern" as the Draka and it was more likely they'd simply keep attacking the Hungarians conventionally.
However, I did read that the Soviets lied to the soldiers they sent to Hungary, telling them they were going to Egypt until they actually got there, and they used tanks in Budapest to limit opportunities for fraternization with the rebels. There were Soviet troops executed later for refusing to fire on protesters.
Maybe the Hungarian rebels do better and the Soviet leadership starts fearing a mutiny. However, conventional aerial bombardment would get the job done without outraging everyone the way nukes would.
If Nagy was a bit more considered initially, and assured Khruschev that Hungary was not going to declare neutrality or leave the Warsaw Pact, there were voices (including Zhukov) that were accepting of pulling Soviet troops out instead of intervening.
If Nagy then (say, at Christmas or the New Year) made those two declarations, after getting the Hungarian armed forces to sort themselves out a bit, then Hungary would be rather better placed to defend against the following Soviet invasion.
If (and this is a very very big "if", although it helps if the Hungarian Air Force takes part in the fighting unlike OTL) that defence was successful initially, both pocketing and forcing the surrender of at least one Soviet garrison troop formation, and temporarily stopping the advance at the border, then Khruschev might order either a demonstration nuclear strike* or a tactical one on a Hungarian army concentration.
But I have to admit it feels like quite a long shot. The later start of hostilities means that Khruschev isn't also worrying about Nasser in Suez at the same time, which should act as a brake on any more... impetuous decisions.
*I'm not sure if that's actually feasible for a Hungarian campaign, though.