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Okay, before the ravening hordes descend upon me with accusations of ASB I just wanted to elaborate that the situation in Afghanistan can be modified as need to be to prompt the Russian Federation to either send troops directly to Afghanistan or be more indirect (i.e. send supplies or build up a Russian presence as border guards in neighboring countries like Uzbekistan), possibly with motivations on Russia's part to cut off the opium trade out of Afghanistan that eventually gets to Russia or to prevent a worsening of the Afghan refugees fleeing towards Russia's allies Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

In my view it would require Afghanistan to be a lot more severe than it is now, to the point where the 1980s refugee crisis would be very similar.
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