AHC: Moon Landing in 1953

Some time could have been saved with sticking with the Lunar Gemini plans

oh yes landing those things would be hellish experience for two astronaut to see the landing site in final approach, you know missing deep craters and large boulders...
And Some of Mc Donnell ideas for that were not helpful at all in this. like Periscopes, Plastic domes or komplex systems of mirrors.
and i don't know how far ready was the landing Computer used on LM in 1969.
 
Conversely, I'd argue as devil's advocate that military spending as opposed to a civilian war-less scenario is exactly what you need - for example the big bucks and material that went into the Manhattan Project.

Furthermore, the fine tuning and working out the kinks of whole squadrons and their pilots feedback in world war 2 and the cash to do so is superior to say racing plane development in the early thirties. In this sense, quantity has a quality all of it's own. Tanks are another fine example of this.

Personally, I'd say have the first world war kick off 15-20 years earlier, have it drag on for six years to make up the tech gap to that of otl, and in that time get an army of a combatant power to have a hard on for rocket artillery and roll out katyusha-esque kit. Between wars it maintains greater interest because of it's performance in the great war, like aforementioned tanks and aircraft did otl. And have ttl ww2 crack out v1 and v2 comparable kit in the early thirties.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Conversely, I'd argue as devil's advocate that military spending as opposed to a civilian war-less scenario is exactly what you need - for example the big bucks and material that went into the Manhattan Project.

Furthermore, the fine tuning and working out the kinks of whole squadrons and their pilots feedback in world war 2 and the cash to do so is superior to say racing plane development in the early thirties. In this sense, quantity has a quality all of it's own. Tanks are another fine example of this.

Personally, I'd say have the first world war kick off 15-20 years earlier, have it drag on for six years to make up the tech gap to that of otl, and in that time get an army of a combatant power to have a hard on for rocket artillery and roll out katyusha-esque kit. Between wars it maintains greater interest because of it's performance in the great war, like aforementioned tanks and aircraft did otl. And have ttl ww2 crack out v1 and v2 comparable kit in the early thirties.

Here is your problem - Katyushas and so on use solids.

Solids, while providing a lot of immediate thrust per mass don't have the fuel efficiency to put large payloads into orbit - you need liquids for that.

The V1 and V2 only made sense for a power that both had air inferiority and wanted to do "strategic bombing" anyway - and Im putting that in quotes, because dumping hundreds of kilos of HE at random somewhere on the enemy homeland doesn't win a war. The V2 especially was an expensive research project (and, thru the demand for food to turn into alcohol fuel, killed a lot more Germans than it ever killed British).

In OTL, you had a development path of heavy bombers -> radar -> jet interceptors -> cruise missiles and IRBMs -> ICBMs -> spacecraft. That is a development path that still works in peacetime ... 'the bomber will always get through' doesn't work in the face of radar guided jet interceptors and fighters are 'defensive weapons' anyway.

It's a short jump from a multi-engine passenger aircraft to a bomber - and the Hispano-Suiza V8 was developed before WW1 anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispano-Suiza_8

So. A warm peace in Europe, and multi-engine passenger aircraft are going to happen. Fast monoplanes are also going to happen, for speed racing if nothing else.

Oberth, Tsiolkovsky and Goddard are all playing with liquid fuels.

As a side point, the RN launched the first aerial torpedo before WW1, so if we butterfly WW1 out of the way, the RN might go air-mad anyway (it's not like they haven't abandoned existing doctrine before - if Andy Fisher realises the torpedo aircraft has made Dreadnought's cousins obsolete in the same way Gloire and Warrior made wooden sailing hulls obsolete then hmmmm. ).
 
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The British Interplanetary Society did a collective project to design a practical moon flight in the late 1930s or mid-40s (clearly overlapping the war years I believe). One major detail I recall was that they decided to assume the rockets would all be solid fuel, since they considered the technical problem of pumps for liquid propellant rockets a tremendous challenge.

Basically if you can do something with a rocket of x efficiency you can do it with a bigger set of rockets of less than x efficiency--sort of. The limit is when the mass ratio is such that auxiliary stuff consumes all your burn-out mass leaving nothing for payload.

Anyway someone might have references to details of this project. IIRC the crew would have been more than three people, and I think they were kind of fuzzy on the details of how the return stage would land on Earth safely. I do think they did the math enough to have some idea how much energy would have to be braked off somehow.

Were I ISOTed to the 1920s and given carte blanche to do what it takes to get a moon rocket that could safely return at least one astronaut from the Moon by 1953, I would take a different tack to be sure. I'd probably concentrate on developing kerosene-hydrogen peroxide engines for one thing.

And am not sure just what colossal resources it would take. Spend enough money and I daresay it could be done though some essential testing might use up a decade or more. Again, if you want to match the feat of a Saturn V Apollo stack, even if you are willing to economize somewhat with the lander and go really bare bones for the reentry capsule, you have to loft something like the OTL Apollo stack mass into Low Earth Orbit and then shove it on to translunar injection speeds. Say, with a wave of the hand and quite questionably, we could get the barebones minimum mass for a lunar orbit rendezvous mission managed by one single astronaut (clearly at great risk of their life of course) down to 20 tonnes, from over 45 for the combined CSM-LM stack. The Soviets of course were striving to do something like this with Korolev and Mishin's Soyuz-LK system to be launched by a single N-1 rocket. The N-1 itself massed more than a Saturn V--it was less efficient as all of its stages were kerosene-oxygen engined, no hydrogen-oxygen upper stages. And the most brilliant approach I have seen in any TL to rejigger this probably doomed enterprise (even assuming the N-1 would ever be made workable, and that the Soyuz-LK setup was workable for a single cosmonaut flag planting moon landing, both of which are open to question to say the least) was urged in the Red Star TL--use two N-1 launches, one to place an LK with descent crasher stage into a low lunar parking orbit first, and the second to send a Soyuz on to the Moon to rendezvous with it. Otherwise the more massive but less efficient N-1 is just not really big enough to send a convincingly robust LOR package to the Moon with enough propellant for its Soyuz to come home again--vice versa, being a bit more modest as to the target mass for a single N-1 to put something in orbit might have enabled the Soviet to maybe actually get a less ambitious version of N-1 operational--realistically probably not before the mid-70s though. The Red Star TL might have jumped the shark a bit in thinking they could have it working before mid 1969. Maybe, with a POD in the very very early 60s and a whole lot of investment the Soviet program did not normally make in NASA style testing. That takes time of course!

And all that comparison is with a Soviet ker-lox state of the art that actually was not bad compared to American--indeed we pretty much abandoned intense development of kerosene-oxygen engines with the F-1 engine, which was awesome and magnificent in itself, and still better in the improved F-1A that never actually flew, but already by 1969 I believe many Soviet ker-lox engines were overall more efficient than the F-1A even--far far less thrust per engine of course, but hey, just use lots of them.

Now to have the Lunar mission match Tintin's deadline of 1953, obviously we have to have a huge project that cannot possibly succeed if it is not started any earlier than say mid-1945--and that's pushing it, assuming someone is motivated to get someone to the moon and back at all costs, and the costs will indeed make Apollo look like an economy class day trip. I have not begun to tackle the financial estimate math, so I cannot honestly say whether we are talking Manhattan Project level budgets (but sustained for nearly a decade), ten Manhattan Projects, or a very large percentage of the cost to the USA of conducting WWII--or conceivably...more! Pretty sure that it has to cost a lot more than Apollo did, duly adjusted for inflation. Throw enough money at the problem and I suppose it can be solved, but we might be talking really massive amounts of money, and on that scale it is not so much a project as repurposing the industry of a major superpower.

Over the years I have striven for plausible reasons why humanity ought to spend serious dollars on space exploration and colonization because I just instinctively think it is cool and something human beings ought to be doing, and I come up empty unless I invoke something like a treasure trove of alien technology we are quite sure will pay off handsomely, lying around for the first humans to come along and take it. So I am imagining now that sometime in early 1945, or perhaps earlier, astronomers and radio technicians including wartime radar techs observe a large starship approach the Earth Moon system and proceed to gently crash on the Lunar nearside, in plain observation of telescopes. Maybe the crew of the ship even are signaling, not knowing any Terran languages of course but desperately crying for attention--they know from Earth's radio noise we have at least that much tech and need all the help they can get. I suppose they crash on the Moon instead of Earth because they have no suitable atmosphere entry vehicles and trying to land on Earth would be certain death; fortunately for them they can manage to rig up some sort of life support system sprawled out on the Lunar surface to survive, and they keep up signaling by radio and gradually people on Earth start more or less figuring out how to communicate with them.

I'm imagining they are Hani from C. J. Cherryh's Compact Space stories (anachronistic since Compact society is contemporary with a system of Earth colonies broken up into several rival warring governments in her canon, but maybe they went through some kind of time warp, or we just pretend Compact space got started many centuries earlier. They were fleeing being chased by a fleet of kifish pirates and managed to lose them but in the course of this their Jump drive is shot and their shot-up ship is a mess. If humans don't come and help them within 20 years or so they die. We are their ride to the only habitable world they lucked into finding as their ship failed, and if we can bring them down to Earth they can teach us to make starships. Ok, that's my personal head canon on this. Perhaps, again anachronistically, this hani ship has some male hani on board. Or maybe it is a mahen ship, or someone else who is plausibly nice people).

Meanwhile as a result of this windfall if you can get it, the Cold War starts early. Stalin manages to keep the lid on himself until the Germans and Japanese are defeated but after that It's On. Neither bloc wants to actually go to war again but both fear it is inevitable and both are determined to get to the lunar treasure trove first. Stalin invades Iran in early '46; this does not start WWIII but it does signal Harry Truman and the British Labour government (yes, I want to keep them both, especially Truman) that the wartime alliance is well and truly over--China too will fall, or mostly, barring perhaps some kind of extended Taiwan enclave, maybe both Taiwan and Hainan, and a foothold on Canton and Hong Kong and vicinity--I have zero faith in the ability of the KMT to pull itself out of its tailspin nor will the USA/Commonwealth want to get too deeply entangled in fighting over China--enough to keep an enclave on the mainland maybe, not enough to beat Mao backed by Stalin to control of all China. Maybe Tibet at least is kept out of PRC control. Ironically South Korea is probably secured with much more defenses than OTL and there is no Korean War as such. There is no hot war because neither side wants to if they can avoid it and both hope to get the alien tech first and gain a commanding advantage and don't want to ruin stuff they hope to leverage that way--this probably means the war does break out when one side gets to the Moon first, making the other desperate to win before it is too late for them. Note that if we have a Moon ship, ICBMs are at least potentially a thing already. So the war would be quite terrible, and I would be glad of a scenario that avoids it.

It is not unthinkable to me for instance that instead of a mad race, both sides recognize that they might lose in this race and they can cover the downside risk by agreeing with the other to a cooperative venture, where both pool their resources in some chosen site where both sides have good oversight over the other, and plan a mission with both Soviet and Western bloc crew to keep an eye on each other and agree to share whatever proceeds there are. That way, neither side has to fear the other will just nuke them the moment they get the upper hand and therefore not fear the other side will do their best to exterminate them first to preempt that.

So--a period of near war in the mid-40s, and a rapproachment some years before the moon mission actually happens, and a joint moon mission accommodating both sides. That way resources are pooled, and maybe both sides can even agree not to develop ICBMs against the other.

Having mentioned nuclear armageddon and the Manhattan Project I suppose I would be remiss not to focus on an Orion--old bang-bang Orion, not the preposterous money pit NASA has committed to since the 2000s--as an option to get to the Moon fast. I am therefore mentioning it but assuming this option is not chosen as Plan A. Indeed we don't know that blowing up A-bombs under a big steel plate on springs to shift a thing the size of a destroyer or even bigger into orbit and thence on to a Lunar landing will actually work. We haven't tried it, and it is probably a very good thing we did not. Anyway we don't know that the pusher plates would really endure such treatment, nor is the problem of how to dispense the charges on a meticulous time table all that easy to solve--given all the time in the world, sure. We are racing to meet a deadline here though. Perhaps it is seriously investigated and maybe some testing takes the place of a lot of bomb tests conducted OTL...but I mention the option only to sideline it, because I want to focus on what chemical rockets can do.

The world has the sketch BIS plan in hand. I used to have links to it and stuff but I forget now where to find it. Anyway I assume that it would have to dwarf a Saturn V, especially if it uses solid fuel. Solid fuel is actually very good in some respects; not only do you avoid the whole problem of how to make pumps, injectors, a combustion chamber and all that jazz, also solids deliver tremendous thrust. Thrust is what you need to get the platform off the ground and on its way to an orbital burn. So a mixed program, in which some kind of liquid fuel throttlable engines are developed for the upper stages but the first stage is a ginormous cluster of basically advanced firecrackers might be in order.

I should note that solid fuel was the American rocketry speciality during WWII. The British had interest in rocket tech of course, but a Victorian era law flatly outlawed rocket experimentation in the British Isles. So the British Rocket Society morphed into the Interplanetary Society and never looked back, and per Arthur Clarke took a stance that we colonials were crass and lacking in vision to remain focused on rockets as such with the American Rocket Society. During the war such pioneers as Parsons and Malina worked on improving and perfecting practical solid fuel systems for stuff like Jet Assisted Take-Off (JATO) for aircraft. The major thing here was formulating solid fuel grains with suitable oomph and also reliability and storability. The state of the art as of 1945 in this field was a big gain over a decade before, but had a long way to go still before we could make stuff like Polaris missiles or the Shuttle SRBs. Again though, I suppose if you throw enough money at a big enough booster stage of dozens or hundreds of fuel tubes and cross your fingers they all work as advertised, even a mediocre solid mix could perhaps get the job done. But being mediocre in specific impulse, the mass will be much higher. Recall a Saturn V approached 3000 tonnes. We could easily be looking at something 10,000 tonnes or more.

Maybe something like Sea Dragon might also be feasible in a quick dirty project. A huge pressure fed propellant tank made of strong thick steel, no mechanical pumps for the pressure fed engine, just valves--perhaps this is another shortcut, and might also be a suitable approach for the upper stages. Again for a single launch mission we would be talking ginormous, whereas Earth Orbit Rendezvous strategies, or still worse Lunar Orbit Rendezvous which was key in slashing the mass of the Apollo stack all up in half or even more, seem dangerously impractical at this early state of the art of avionics. Perhaps suitably trained human crew can, by simply controlling valves, manage to do stuff like docking just by eyeball out of windows. Certainly radars exist, but their electronics is vacuum tube based, which I think would have some difficulty guaranteeing survive the vibrations of launch (oh, and solids are nasty for that--liquid engines can get into resonances like POGO, but solids have their own built in version; the Shuttle launches were rougher rides than their Apollo veteran crews recalled on Saturn rockets). To be sure, once in space there is all the free hard vacuum you could ever want; I suppose it might be possible to design electronics that are useless wire sculptures on the ground but once in space and vented out, can be heated up and work without all that pesky glass, which is also much of the weight! Still even without glass, vacuum tube tech is power hungry and massive versus what we expect of solid state electronics today. So the communications, control and computational tech will be quite primitive compared to what Apollo state of the art could rely on--again it falls down to brainy well trained astronauts with slide rules doing the math by hand, and on the fly!

Therefore any sort of rendezvous approach seems incredibly risky to me. Perhaps we should forget the idea of a single Tintin rocket going to the Moon and back by itself, and think in terms of a staged program of building a space station, then assembling parts of a moon ship at the station, then using that ship with propellant shipped up gradually to actually go to the moon. But again this trades off making a truly monstrous sized rocket ship to launch from Earth with a long fussy series of rendezvous and orbital construction projects. I think 8 years is just not enough time.

I mentioned Korolev and Mishin's concept of a moon landing mission in the USSR--I didn't mention Vladimir Chelomei and his various rival concepts. Chelomei's own notion of a moon mission involved sending a single cosmonaut up on a really gigantic hypergolic fueled upgrade of his "Proton" rocket, the UR-500 (or was it 700?) This monster would have dwarfed even the N-1. It would send this cosmonaut in a small conical capsule, looking much like a slightly scaled down Apollo capsule, along to translunar injection with a stack of rockets to first brake the capsule-return rocket complex to a direct landing on the Moon, no parking orbits or rendezvouses--just shoot the thing straight to the Moon and hope to Marx and Lenin that the landing engines all work for the soft landing. Then when whatever degree of flag planting and what not this single lone cosmonaut could manage were accomplished he climbs back into the little capsule and his remaining stack of Earth return engines launch the capsule on a trajectory back to Earth for an Apollo-like reentry.

I am not recommending the hypergolic engine system. To be sure, it has its advantages but that stuff is incredibly toxic and we would be using it in quantities again suitable to counterweight a naval cruiser. Anyway the designs must be frozen some years before the 1940s end; even kerosene-liquid oxygen engines were cutting edge and mediocre in performance compared to what they would be a decade later. Perhaps indeed liquid fuel will be limited to alcohol and liquid oxygen, which at least the German V weapon program got practically operational! That means throwing even more propellant mass at the problem of course. OTL, Chelomei was optimistic about his rockets and Glushko the engine designer was much more enthusiastic about working on hypergol systems, but in fact the Proton rocket, supposedly to be available well before 1965, was plagued with trouble and not formally certified as functional by Soviet officials until well into the 1970s--and to this day they blow up every now and then, despite half a century of shakedown. In 1947 or '48, there will be no reason to assume a hydrazine-nitric acid (well, N2O4 oxidant) hypergol engine will be particularly advantageous over going for ker-lox, and alternatives like kerosene peroxide, or just sticking with alcohol-oxygen, will seem quite as competitive. For the next generation maybe, to meet the 1953 deadline...no.

So I mentioned the Chelomei proposal for a moonship just to illustrate the general outline of what a quick, dirty, money no object 1953 moon shot might look like. A truly gigantic monster of a rocket stack, launched on a solid fuel battery that would outthrust two or three Saturn V, maybe more, switching over to massive amounts of alcohol-oxygen, kerosene oxygen if we are lucky, engine systems for orbit and subsequent push on to a lunar transfer path, necessarily pushing considerably more mass, not less, than Apollo's 45 tonnes of crewed ships to what is probably also a daredevil direct crash dive with fingers crossed the engines do not fail, under manual control for an eyeball guided landing near the target. If the crew is more than one, as it should be, and they have some kind of equipment like space suits--just figuring out how suitable space suits can be made with late 1940s tech is pretty daunting--and a moon rover of some kind, we could be looking at two or even three hundred tonnes of ship approaching the Moon--it would be a heck of a lot lighter when it touches down of course!

Given the need for gigantism up to this point, a booby prize of sorts is that the return stage back to Earth from the Lunar surface is probably not such a big deal. Again it has to dwarf the ascent stage of the LM--not just because it has to do the whole job of boosting back to Earth, not just ascend to low lunar orbit, but mainly because with no rendezvous on the way back this capsule is in fact the Earth return capsule--Apollo's LOR strategy (and Korolev's proposed LK-/Soyuz) avoided sending the return capsule through the demanding lunar landing and relaunch stages, so the ascent vehicle and thus descent vehicle could be made much lighter. Here we have to launch the same capsule that is somehow going to survive reentry from nearly 12 kilometers per second speed on atmospheric entry--also, since again our avionics are in a deeply primitive state, the initial launch from the Moon surface toward Earth is liable to involve some errors, and we will need to bring along some hefty amount of midcourse correction propellant too. Life support capsule for the return, heat shield of some kind, maneuvering propellant--it all adds up and the landing stage has to be robust enough to land all this crap and the ascent fuel too softly on the Moon. This is why the package is so damn heavy compared to Apollo, and we have to launch it all the way to the Moon from Earth with primitive rockets too, hence they have to be even more massive!

We should also take note of the reentry problem, which I seem to recall the BIS project fudged a bit. Rocket braking is clean out, unless you want to turn a 10,000 tonne ship into a million tonne ship. Somehow or other the capsule must use the atmosphere to brake it down to parachuting speeds. Now to us this is old hat, but in 1945 no one had yet done the research on practical design of ballistic entry systems yet. It was on the agenda of course since such things are needed for ICBMs, but all the homework was yet to be done.

I believe Konstantin Tsiolkovski actually included the general form of the solution in his visionary early 20th century research on space travel; he proposed I believe a form of ablative cooling relying on water, which would boil under the heat of reentry and blast out as steam through little vent grille holes. If all else fails, this is probably feasible with a suitably high temperature steel entry shield/tank, but again it is wasteful of mass in the extreme--this alone might add 50 or a hundred tonnes or more to the stack sent to the Moon! The practical solution is to use other ablative materials, solid ones layered outside the main structure. Shaping the capsule and its trajectory of entry are also critical. I presume the ablative used would be less high tech than the Apollo system--but then again, wood is actually a fairly good ablative material, and some Chinese capsules have used it--from the last time I took a look at it, they were heavier than the Apollo system would have allowed them to be--but still lighter than a water based system would be I suppose.

I began this with some confidence that if money were truly no object, it could perhaps be done. I am left with more perhaps than ever, because not everything can just be scaled up until it works after all. It could be that a suitable mass of solid fuel launch elements for instance has a probability approaching certainty that some imperfection in some of the fuel tubes will cause a disastrous misfire of some kind.

So--I think it can be done, but it would require a motivation at least comparable to that behind the Manhattan Project, or more, and would be risky as all hell and withal would dwarf the Saturn V since we need to throw mass at problems Apollo whittled down with finesse.

On this note I will also pass with some withering contempt on the idea that the Gemini landing alternatives were easy peasy low lying fruit that would have got the job of Apollo done with a fraction of the cost. If you take a look at the details of even the most modest form of the proposal, which is to use a Gemini with a beefed up heat shield and a transstage for maneuvering to serve the function of an Apollo CSM, and for a single astronaut to descend to the moon in an open space buggy, basically a glorified walker with fuel tanks and engines, to touch down, plant a flag, say some posturing prepared speech on the radio, maybe bend over and pick up one or two pounds of moon rocks, then fly back up to the Gemini and with his partner burn for home, even just to do this stunt a lot more than a simple Titan II booster would be required! This barebones mission would still have required a Saturn 1B to send it on its way, at least. The one someone showed a picture of, of an entire Gemini capsule being landed so it can then later boost back up to go home, would have been very nearly as massive as the full Apollo stack and would surely have required a full Saturn V to send it to the moon. It would not represent any significant savings of money or time--some, but considering that even this deluxe form of Lunar Gemini would have very curtailed lunar stay time and operational capability versus the Apollo stack, we pay almost the full price in both money and time for a very cutrate outcome!

Anyway the Gemini, much admired by astronauts though it was, is also a decade more advanced technology than anyone can expect in 1953, and its launch systems ditto. This option is not on the shelf for 1953. In fact the mission profile I described is pretty much its mission profile, but much cruder, and therefore far more massive.
 

Ian_W

Banned
OK, some more notes, assuming we butterfly away the Short Twentieth Century and get a fat, happy and air-mad Europe.

Germany still mostly goes down the airship route. While this is a dead end for space, "rocketoons' will get tried but they don't help much, their very high altitude experiments lead to a bunch of important life-support and space suit work. Without the Hohenzollern Gondola series, mankind cannot survive in space. Similarly, German ideas of multi-compartment inflatables was critical for structures in space and on the Moon. An 'Atomic boiler' project, led by Einstein and Heisenberg, leads to a form of heat and light that does not need oxygen to produce. A parallel project of "Hallwachs cells" allows electrical energy to be created from light alone. These are mounted on the upper surfaces of zeppelins to provide electric direct current for various uses.

The French take the work of the Russian rocketry pioneers, and are the first to get liquid oxygen/kerosene rockets to work.

The RN realises the air-dropped torpedo has done to the Dreadnought what Gloire and Warrior did for the ship of the line, and goes all-out for aircraft. it is realised that faster aircraft are important, which puts them on the path of biplanes to monoplanes to pulse jets to rockets. Realising civilian 'rocket clubs' have their uses in training the next generation, the First Sea Lord arranges for a licencing system for rocket clubs. Oxford and Cambridge both develop 'bertie whooshers', enthusiastic undergraduates who experiment with various ways of making rockets go higher and faster.

The US and Russia both work on multi-engine passenger planes. Everyone is too polite to mention that a passenger plane could easily be converted to a bomb-carrying aircraft, but the combination of radio detection and ever-faster pursuit aircraft promise defenses.

Internationally, air races and air endurance records keep pushing humanity to higher, faster, stronger. Hispano-Suiza and Rolls-Royce continue their engine race, and sleek monoplanes replace agile biplanes.

'Air minefields' of rockets on zeppelins become a thing.
 
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trurle

Banned
In the Tintin comic books, a moon landing takes place as early as 1953. I always wondered whether this would have been possible in the real world. Is there any chance for it to happen with a PoD after 1900, and, if yes, what changes would be necessary?
The approach must be 2-pronged:
1) Reduce tech requirements as much as possible
2) Make more technology available

Let`s try to device a minimalist Moon spacecraft for 1953.
a) Docking and refueling in LEO or LLO: big no. Supporting infrastructure (radios, radars, computers, tracking network) was problematic IOTL 1965 and impossible in 1953. In 1953, even basic telemetry return or voice commlink from the Moon would require a heroic development effort.
b) Strictly one man crew. May be even pygmy/dwarfism/child crew to save weight and improve acceleration tolerance.
c) Open-frame spacecraft with pilot in space suit, protected during launch by fairing only. Feeding likely limited to sweet water during the trip.
d) Reentry of space suit only (with Moon samples in pockets), protected by personal ablation shield. Extreme g-loads even at lifting reentry, but relatively benign thermal loads due to low weight/drag, resulting in less demand of thermal shield tech. Actually personal reentry shield can be as simple as 1/4 inch thick getinax panels.

With a-d systematically implemented, the LEO mass of Moon-travelling stack can be down from 120 ton of Apollo to roughly 6 tons, reducing launch vehicle technology level from year 1969 to roughly year 1959.

Further 6-years speedup to 1953 would require significant technological breakthroughs not seen IOTL and intense motive force.

P.S. The first ten flights of such Moon rocket would be nearly sure a total failures, given the reliability of hardware of era, and spacecraft made in single-string architecture to save weight. Even after ten tries and iterative fixes, each flight will surely have the pilot either dead or severely wounded during reentry (accelerations of 15-20 gee would be considered the good reentry).
 
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Germany still mostly goes down the airship route. While this is a dead end for space

A direct application for space would be developing a recoverable and reusable booster--again your basic Sea Dragon approach comes to mind, making a big brute of a thing with thick steel hull, that simply falls down and semi-crashes (with enough parachute and/or rocket retro braking to avoid being dinged) but is pretty serviceable for more uses. A strong steel hull, the choice of this driven in part by the desire to have the stage survive entry, would make the option of making liquid propellants be stored under pressure, and the engine pressure-fed, which eliminates a whole lot of plumbing and fussy highly stressed machinery. 1945-'53 is the Jet Age and the machinery is doable, but in cranky and unreliable form that withal will not achieve the kind of performance late 1960s state of the art could achieve; pressure fed sidesteps all that. It also greatly lightens and simplifies the rocket engines--the weight savings is dwarfed by the offsetting fuselage mass increase which would be orders of magnitude more than making the engine completely weightless of course! But given a heavy steel hull, mainly there to enable the thing to survive being aerobraked at thousands of miles per hour in the low end of the "Thermal Thicket" of low hypersonic speed, might as well use the ability to hold pressure as a feature along with the bug of dead weight. Note that the consideration that stage dry mass is the major limiter on mass ratio and therefore speed that can be reached at a given Isp--our Isp's are mediocre in the late 1940s, one way or another--is less stringent for a first stage, which is also the most massive stage, because the mass ratio includes the mass of the upper stack--until the stage dry mass is a tenth or more the mass of the upper stage, it makes very little difference to outcomes how massive it is. In fact with a pressure fed system, the "engine" is a combustion chamber and nozzle. No turbomachinery at all. We could have some auxiliary stuff if say instead of maintaining pressure with supercritical helium, or allowing for "blowdown" with the pressure dropping as a fixed mass of pressurant expands, we tried to maintain pressure thermally--say we maintain pressure in the LOX tank by boiling a small volume of liquid oxygen from the tank to gas state, but at the same pressure and temperature, and feed it back into the tank. We could use say methane for fuel and do the same thing with a separate set of plumbing for that substance too, at roughly the same temperature. Or use kerosene and boil a separate stock of liquid nitrogen, or heck even liquid hydrogen--pressurizing another fuel there is no reaction hazard--the LH2 tank will be bulky and tend to freeze even LOX while being boiled by it if they are in thermal contact, so I don't recommend that for the 1953 target, but it is an option! Anyway thermal management to maintain pressure in the main tanks could be accomplished, at least in part, using flows of propellant needed for regenerative cooling of the combustion chamber and nozzle, but a less efficient simplification that might wastefully get the job done earlier--we need to remember the Apollo motto here, "Waste anything but time!"--might be to send all the coolant into the combustion chamber--that's what makes it "regenerative," though routing some to thermal management pressure maintainance purposes is a form of that too, one way or the other the energy otherwise sacrificed to cooling is thriftily used again--or at considerable hit to Isp, dump it. Then we need another heat source for the heat to boil some LOX and some other pressurant gas for the fuel tank--nitrogen, hydrogen, whatever. But do we not have a huge dumb tank partitioned into two tanks for oxidant and fuel, to draw from, for a separate combustor to generate this heat, dumping the exhaust overboard instead of using it for propellant?

So there's the big dumb steel brute of a booster, perfectly capable of simply stoically taking the heat of aerobraking, and then medium-soft landing.

Where is there an airship in all this, you might be asking?

Well, unlike say a modern SpaceX Falcon 9, we have not further compounded the already terrible mass ratio by reserving propellant to arrest and reverse the trajectory and send the stage back to its launch site. Our recovery mode is more like the sea recovery mode of a Falcon booster, which is to land on a barge downrange. But of course this thing is not capable of a nice retropropulsive precision landing! Any retrorockets involved just take the edge off its aerodynamic terminal velocity of descent so it splashes without being crushed.

A sea launch has the simple option of having a recovery ship--the thing can't just land on it, but the ship can track it down and fish it out of the water, or simply tow it back to port. What if we are the Russians, and don't have access to an eastward facing coast at a low latitude with decent weather, and are forced to launch over land instead?

This is where large airships of some kind come in handy. Making a helicopter that could go out and pick one of these things out of some taiga forest where it crashed--well, if anyone could do it it would be the Russians I guess! They are kings of gigantic aircraft. But gigantic it would be; these stages would mass hundreds, if not a thousand or more, tonnes dry.

No, this is really a job for an airship.

Note that even though we are by default talking about Germans if we talk about Zeppelins, who in a No Great War scenario might well be launching from German East Africa known OTL today as Tanzania, which has a perfectly suitable east coast practically on the equator, and most other powers who might be in this race also can access a good seacoast launch site somewhere or other, sending an airship out to pick up the spent stage for reuse instead of a surface ship means that the thing will be hauled back to port in hours instead of days later. And there is just no other good option at all for powers that wish or are forced to launch over land. Note also an airship would avoid such incidents as recently caused a sea recovered Falcon 9 booster to be damaged when it toppled in heavy seas, or was swept overboard, I forget which--either can happen steaming along the sea surface. But an airship with enough static lift to lift a spent rocket hull will have plenty of volume to tuck the thing in faired to the hull, and will not be suffering from sea state--bad winds could destroy it completely of course, but the art of airmanship would presumably be quite developed by 1953!

These same airships would also be the obvious approach to hauling the stages from factories to the launch site in the first place--in fact OTL Goodyear put in a bid for the job eventually done by the AeroGuppy, hauling Saturn V upper stages in a catamaran fusion of two ZPG-3W blimp hulls--the -3W was the largest blimp design to ever fly, and by the way might have been a step too far, at least for the rubberized cotton fabric hull material Goodyear was still using in the late 1950s, because one in service crashed rather horribly in a quite controversial case off Massachusetts, one set of people claiming the blimp hull failed. So we might take the idea that setting two of them side by side to haul the stage masses great distances was a dubious plan, but the general principle of an airship doing the job is not invalidated, and the point is it was considered OTL.
The RN realises the air-dropped torpedo has done to the Dreadnought what Gloire and Warrior did for the ship of the line, and goes all-out for aircraft.
I think in a TL where the Germans are maintaining their work on Zeppelins and presumably pushing for such uses as airlines to German East Africa and their Pacific colonies, the RN will not fail to develop their own airships too. This is partially because this is exactly what they were doing as WWI started OTL, and during the war they doubled down on airship development, also developing patrol blimps too. If the war never breaks out, I see no reason the British program would not plod along.

And aside from serving as a rocket launcher base, an airship can also recover an airplane from flight.

Thus airships can serve as ultralight carriers, for at least a handful of warplanes. This will in fact become a thing in this TL I think. Conceptually, the USN officer Rosendahl who was the major spine of the US Navy's airship program regarded the airship as an advanced replacement for the cruiser in its scout role; one mission cruisers had was to venture out into the high seas roaming around alone unencumbered (or aided!) by a battle group, looking to sight the enemy and pin down what vector to expect an attack from. Scouts in short. An airship flying many thousands of feet above the sea, or even mere hundreds, would have a line of sight of a hundred miles or more, and maintain a cruise speed twice or more that of the surface ships, so a single airship could do the job of many cruisers in scanning hundreds of thousands of square miles of sea surface for the foe. Basing pairs of scout planes on the airship, the scout planes could further expand the airship's scanning sweep by further large multiples.

If the Great War is to be avoided, the Germans presumably back off their intense challenge to RN supremacy and negotiate some dignified limitations on their fleet capabilities. But if the RN wants to maintain supremacy on the high seas, they might well feel driven into developing scout airships, and from these scout plane carrier airships, and finally consider making airships large enough to hold a strike group of aircraft as an ultralight, ultrafast strike-escort carrier.

In turn, developing the techniques of recovering airplanes to airships can have commercial applications too.

Airships thus might not be entirely the dead end you seem to assume; between airships recovering planes to them and thus perhaps serving a very key role in the developing global air transport biz, and their unparalleled even today air cargo hauling potentials, a certain niche for them would persist to the present day I would think.
 
b) Strictly one man crew. May be even pygmy/dwarfism/child crew to save weight and improve acceleration tolerance.
Funny how you blew right past women there; Arthur Clarke anticipated this option in fiction back between the launch of Sputnik and Vostok.

With a-d systematically implemented, the LEO mass of Moon-travelling stack can be down from 120 ton of Apollo to roughly 6 tons, reducing launch vehicle technology level from year 1969 to roughly year 1959.

CSM and LM massed 45-49 tonnes. I think you are mixing the payload stack mass up with the fueled mass of the Apollo third stage, which was about 120 tonnes before the Translunar Injection burn, after which it was exhausted space junk.

Anyway even if I were to grant your factor of 20 reduction claims, which would mean the entire CSM-LM equivalent package all up would be just 2 and a quarter tonnes on the way to the Moon, which is ridiculously inadequate, we have to offset it by the fact that there is no way in 1953 that rocket engines as efficient in Isp as Apollo's upper stage J-2 engines could possibly exist yet. It would probably be most foolish to attempt to make any of the engines hydrogen burning at all; the engines will be ker-lox, or meth-lox, or hypergolic, or even alcohol-lox. Thus their Isp will be far lower than the J-2's 430 sec or so, and thus the mass ratio of propellant to Lunar stack plus dry mass of the TLI stage will be far higher than the Apollo's just over 1:1. This divides any mass reduction in the Lunar stack you can sanely justify.

Meanwhile I think this ultra-heroic kamikaze approach of yours is, bluntly put, less than sane.

Step back and explain just what the motive for putting a single Mbuti tribesgirl on the Moon briefly, and having her come back with a couple pounds of moon rocks in her pockets, with a deadline of 1953, would actually be? I proposed alien technology treasure trove, with or without some living aliens to offer a ride back to Earth to. I can't think of anything else that would motivate any nation, however rich, to find putting human boots on the regolith so burning a goal that they would spend 10 to 50 Apollo budgets to try to do it by such an early deadline.

So maybe humanity has a button to push, on the Moon, or the Moon turns into the Death Star and blows Earth up or something?

Even so, something has to give somewhere. You seem to be overlooking that this is an era where avionics are far less capable, and the donkey work of meticulous calculations of trajectories, and finely controlling rocket engines that probably actually fluctuate in thrust, must be done by highly trained human beings. You can perhaps kidnap or persuade a "pygmy" to join the program, but probably not a couple dozen of them in order to kill half of them in ramshackle death trap ships before one of them gets lucky--again, to save humankind, maybe. But the truth is, if it is possible to put a very small human on the Moon and return them, a considerably more burly one is also feasible. And for any practical purpose that might motivate such expensive urgency, you don't want one person, big or small, to touch down, plant a flag, grab a handful of rocks, and then leave again; you will probably want to station at least five or six people there, and keep them supplied while they make a proper Moonbase, and provide for the lot of them to all come home together.

Even after ten tries and iterative fixes, each flight will surely have the pilot either dead or severely wounded during reentry (accelerations of 15-20 gee would be considered the good reentry).

Similarly, it is not cheaper nor faster to build a dozen deathtrap barebones ships held together with duct tape, versus one good ship that is robust enough to have a decent probability of success. Going cutrate will not be the best approach.

Note even the Japanese did not use literal kamikazes until they were utterly destitute and desperate.

Why is humanity so very desperate to do this, and even so, isn't it worth doing it right?
 
For your crazy Rocket ideas, don't discount Borane based Zip fuels
Expand on this or I will discount them. There are apparently reasons we did not roll with them OTL, nor did the Soviets or Chinese. Especially given a primitive state of rocket engine development, what advantage would this bring?

As devil's advocate I suppose that other things being equal, like chamber pressures, the "zip"mens that there will be more heat released therefore higher Isp at a given pressure.

I am not sure why these alleged "zip" fuels were in fact abandoned. They are certainly toxic, but I suspect the borane compounds tended to form grit that was erosive. Not as much of a problem for pressure fed to be sure! But still some.
 
I think people focus on the wrong countries, the main reason for going into space are two reason, the development of rockets for long range use and prestige. So I would go with Weimar deciding to go around the military limits by focus on rocketry, next we get rid of the Nazi, and we get somewhat else who remilitarize the Rhineland and unite Austria with Germany, but decides that a new Great War are to risky, but instead throw first the resources in long range rocket, and the push to prove the superiority of German science by going into space, those create a rocket and space race through the forties culminating in a Moon landing in 1953. What follows that are pretty much the space development we saw in novel/movie “2001”, which likely gives us a good idea what would have happened if we had seen continued investments in the space race.
 

marathag

Banned
Expand on this or I will discount them. There are apparently reasons we did not roll with them OTL, nor did the Soviets or Chinese. Especially given a primitive state of rocket engine development, what advantage would this bring?

As devil's advocate I suppose that other things being equal, like chamber pressures, the "zip"mens that there will be more heat released therefore higher Isp at a given pressure.

I am not sure why these alleged "zip" fuels were in fact abandoned. They are certainly toxic, but I suspect the borane compounds tended to form grit that was erosive. Not as much of a problem for pressure fed to be sure! But still some.
Well, they were nasty, hellish fuels, and that coming from people who dealt with Hydrazine and RFNA.
Yeah, the instantaneous ignition on exposure to air was a downside, as was the byproducts after combustion.

But was a way to get liquid hydrocarbon at normal temperatures with a lot of 'H' in it, B5 H11, with far more energy released on combustion.

Blended with Hydrazine and some Beryllium, using LOX, you got an ISP of up to 400.

ZIP fuel were a bad choice for jet turbines, but for rocket chambers that would only be burning for minutes, may have worked.
 
Blended with Hydrazine and some Beryllium, using LOX, you got an ISP of up to 400.
So--better than methlox, but not as good as hydrogen-oxygen, in that metric. Except I believe the theoretical absolute maximum for meth-lox might be higher than 400.

Specific impulse is not an absolute thing; it depends on fuel-oxidant mix and chamber pressure. Getting the maximum involves reaching some kind of extreme in engineering.

This is 1953. And the design has to be frozen some years before at that. In 1950, what realistic parameters of thrust and Isp could one reach--those are the numbers to compare. Some mixes can be driven closer to their ideal maximums more easily than others, so the relative ranking does not stay the same.

I expect indeed the optimum we can reach with the witches' brew you have mentioned will be higher even at 1950 attainable chamber conditions. I have to wonder at what happens if you try to use a hydrazine-borane-beryllium mix for regenerative cooling for instance! If we need to use LOX or some third auxiliary fluid we have to deal with consequences of that; the latter approach in effect lowers Isp because we have to count the mass flow of that third coolant along with the propellants as such when we divide thrust by mass flow.

So if the zip of a zip fuel is high enough, it can indeed bring the oversized mass of a precocious early Moon rocket down. With normal fuels costing a tiny fraction of the costs of a launch, the dollar price of this exotic stuff could be quite high per gallon and still be just a footnote in the total cost of the program.

But we should definitely not dismiss the toxicity issues! It is one thing to use a little bit some sounding rocket might require. But using it in quantities at least as great as the propellant mass loaded in a Saturn V, and perhaps ten times higher?

The Russians never have gotten around to launching human beings on a hypergolic fueled rocket, and ker-lox Soyuz type rockets, along with equally ker-lox Zenit types, also still launch other payloads too. But the Proton has taken over a lot of uncrewed launches, and Soviet era designed military missiles tend to be hypergolic too. People leaving hundreds and even thousands of miles down range from Baikonur launch complex report a whole bunch of disorders that seem clearly to stem from the byproducts of hypergolic propellants the Soviet/Russian programs have used. Again, the Russians have rarely attempted really heavy launches in practice--some failed N-1 tests, using ker-lox, and some successes along with partial failures of Energia are it--Energia using ker-lox side boosters Zenit is derived from, and hydrogen fuel ran the core. So all this Russian evidence of how nasty hypergols are stems from a large count of much smaller launches.

From the sound of it, your offered zip fuel makes N204 oxidant, the major culprit in hypergol toxicity (hydrazine, included in your dream fuel, coming close behind there) look benign.

I suspect that unless the pragmatics of handling zip fuel are indeed no worse than those of handling the hypergols actually developed OTL, the major effect of a program pursuing developing these zip fuels will be to make hypergols look like the sane person's alternative in comparison.
 

trurle

Banned
Anyway even if I were to grant your factor of 20 reduction claims, which would mean the entire CSM-LM equivalent package all up would be just 2 and a quarter tonnes on the way to the Moon, which is ridiculously inadequate, we have to offset it by the fact that there is no way in 1953 that rocket engines as efficient in Isp as Apollo's upper stage J-2 engines could possibly exist yet. It would probably be most foolish to attempt to make any of the engines hydrogen burning at all; the engines will be ker-lox, or meth-lox, or hypergolic, or even alcohol-lox.
I assumed hypergolics. These engines scale down well, unlike kerosene-lox. Regarding 2.25 ton after TLI, it is ok. Do not forget, you have reentry weight just about 100kg - underweight Mbuti girl as you say, in space suit.
Similarly, it is not cheaper nor faster to build a dozen deathtrap barebones ships held together with duct tape, versus one good ship that is robust enough to have a decent probability of success.
You are missing here effects of economy of scale and effects of less componens in open-frame spacecraft. In particular, all stage separators are simple bolts&nuts which need to be released with wrench, not faulty-prone explosive bolts which were a major problem in early spacecraft (Soviets have managed to crash one rocket by over-tightening bolts though). I remember designing the separation bolt firing circuit back in 2003, and specifications were pretty horrible even for modern electronics. Also, TLI injection can be done with drop tanks instead of full staging. Beresheet actually did not stage after TLI at all, but it had too low thrust/weight for manual landing (and as turned out, no thrust/weight margin for any contingency at all).
People leaving hundreds and even thousands of miles down range from Baikonur launch complex report a whole bunch of disorders that seem clearly to stem from the byproducts of hypergolic propellants the Soviet/Russian programs have used.
And one of Apollo crew IOTL nearly suffocated when vented oxidizer of hypergolic RCS re-entered the capsule. They used hypergolics anyway. Simply no alternative.
 
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trurle

Banned
Blended with Hydrazine and some Beryllium, using LOX, you got an ISP of up to 400.

ZIP fuel were a bad choice for jet turbines, but for rocket chambers that would only be burning for minutes, may have worked.
Actually diborane/LOX mix have an ISP approaching 470 sec, and some crazy men even have formula of tetra-propellants reaching 532 sec. The main problem is what high-energy mixes are..not mixing well. You get incomplete combustion or detonation (or both), not steady burn. The only ZIP fuel which found usage in rocketry was syntin - which add 10 sec. to ISP compared to RP-1. JAXA is working with ozone-LOX mixes, but a.f.a.i.k., all they get is the explosion of test facility in Sagamihara back in 2015.
 
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Thank you all!

The general consensus seems to be that avoiding both World Wars would be absolutely necessary. So even with a much, much shorter WWII, it won't be possible?

It's just that I'm a big Tintin fan - so big that I'm currently trying to fathom how hard it'd be to provide background for the Tintinverse by constructing a believable alternate history timeline around it. It's just some sick nerdy obsession of mine. Apart from the existence of several fictional countries, the moon landing Tintin participates in is probably the biggest problem, so I figured it'd be best to start with it.
You know, since you're so interested in this, there's a comic that you would probably enjoy called Ministry of space by Warren Ellis.
 
You know, since you're so interested in this, there's a comic that you would probably enjoy called Ministry of space by Warren Ellis.
I just googled it, looks really intriguing. Thanks, man!

I've done my best trying to follow the extremely detailed technological considerations made in this thread. Again, thank you all, I've never expected my question to be dealt with so seriously (which is really cool, don't get me wrong).

Sadly, I'm now pretty convinced that, although there might be a very stretched way to get a moon landing in 1953, it would be of a radically different nature than the one shown in the Tintin books. Although I know Tintin's creator tried very hard to be scientifically and technologically accurate, his research was naturally limited to the state of scientific knowledge (available to him) at the time.

Having read your answers, it seems an impossible challenge to me to get four men plus one dog (plus three unexpected passengers that were necessary to give the story enough tension and humour) onboard an atomic-rocketed spacecraft on the moon and back. Although the information the comic provides about the mechanisms inside the rocket and the physics surrounding it are far more detailed than just saying it's "atomic-rocketed", I don't even dare to present those details to you, as I fear they will be brutally exposed to be far less realistic than I thought.

One might think crafting a little TL around a series of adventurous comic books isn't, like, rocket science, but apparently it is :coldsweat: ! Sorry, I'm going to punish myself for that.

Anyway, at least I'm now much better informed about how space travel works, technologically and scientifically, and in particular, how much cost and energy it requires!! I'm really impressed by the deep knowledge that can be found in this forum even in a field like this.And regarding my Tintin TL, well, if I still want to amuse myself with that, it seems that I'll have to ignore science, sadly as it. But after all, it's just an old comic made primarily for kids, so what did I expect.
 
I just googled it, looks really intriguing. Thanks, man!

I've done my best trying to follow the extremely detailed technological considerations made in this thread. Again, thank you all, I've never expected my question to be dealt with so seriously (which is really cool, don't get me wrong).

Sadly, I'm now pretty convinced that, although there might be a very stretched way to get a moon landing in 1953, it would be of a radically different nature than the one shown in the Tintin books. Although I know Tintin's creator tried very hard to be scientifically and technologically accurate, his research was naturally limited to the state of scientific knowledge (available to him) at the time.

Having read your answers, it seems an impossible challenge to me to get four men plus one dog (plus three unexpected passengers that were necessary to give the story enough tension and humour) onboard an atomic-rocketed spacecraft on the moon and back. Although the information the comic provides about the mechanisms inside the rocket and the physics surrounding it are far more detailed than just saying it's "atomic-rocketed", I don't even dare to present those details to you, as I fear they will be brutally exposed to be far less realistic than I thought.

One might think crafting a little TL around a series of adventurous comic books isn't, like, rocket science, but apparently it is :coldsweat: ! Sorry, I'm going to punish myself for that.

Anyway, at least I'm now much better informed about how space travel works, technologically and scientifically, and in particular, how much cost and energy it requires!! I'm really impressed by the deep knowledge that can be found in this forum even in a field like this.And regarding my Tintin TL, well, if I still want to amuse myself with that, it seems that I'll have to ignore science, sadly as it. But after all, it's just an old comic made primarily for kids, so what did I expect.
1: you're welcome :)
2: if you're timeline is a little inaccurate, I'm sure it will still be a great read. I'm looking forward to it.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Having read your answers, it seems an impossible challenge to me to get four men plus one dog (plus three unexpected passengers that were necessary to give the story enough tension and humour) onboard an atomic-rocketed spacecraft on the moon and back. Although the information the comic provides about the mechanisms inside the rocket and the physics surrounding it are far more detailed than just saying it's "atomic-rocketed", I don't even dare to present those details to you, as I fear they will be brutally exposed to be far less realistic than I thought.

You might want to look at this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NERVA
 
At work.

Just a question.

If something like the 'Sea Dragon' never actually has to rest on a solid surface (Other than its construction in drydock) then.....


Just how big can such a vehicle get?

Cheers.
 
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