AHC: Moldova one of the richer countries of Europe

[Trust me I'm an Engineer]

Hi, I've been lurking around here for some time, but this is my first post.

I was wondering if there's some way to make Moldova, with a 1900 POD, one of the richest countries in Europe today, in the sense that it's a well-developed country comparable to that of Canada, the Netherlands or the Scandinavian countries?

 

[Lalli]

Might be possible make that richer than it is in OTL but richest? Impossible. Romania would be easier but Moldova is actually very artificial creation. Even its existence not be very plausible.

 

[Alexander the Average]

Well first you have a nuclear war break out...

 

[Emperor Julian]

Someone from Moldova invents Google.

 

[riggerrob]

Now you are thinking!
WI Moldova industrialized ahead of the rest of Russia?
WI "Moldova" brand farm tractors drive an agricultural revolution?
WI "Moldova" brand grain silos reduce the cost of storage and break-bulk?

 

[Halagaz]

It would help if Moldova's territory expanded to cover as many of Romania's oil reserves as possible. Of course, even that wouldn't take Moldova that far, but it would help. Another issue is that the very existence of Moldova as something separate from Romania is a bit of an accident.

 

[Alon]

I call ASB. Moldova is landlocked, and far from Central and Western European markets. The Poles and Czechs and Slovaks and Hungarians aren't genetically or culturally superior to the Bulgarians and Romanians; they're just closer to markets in Germany and points west.

 

[Remitonov]

It would help if Moldova's territory expanded to cover as many of Romania's oil reserves as possible. Of course, even that wouldn't take Moldova that far, but it would help. Another issue is that the very existence of Moldova as something separate from Romania is a bit of an accident.

Stalin: "Just as planned." *Raito glare*

Moldovan identity as a whole was a deliberate attempt by the Soviets to crush Romanian claims on the lands. Its ability to endure past the end of the USSR was an accident, perhaps, but not something that came entirely out of natural separation.

As for pulling Moldova out of poverty, not sure. Avoiding the quagmire that was the Transnistrian War would be a huge start. The fact that Moldova is tearing itself in two between Western Europe and Russia isn't helping matters either.

 

[shiftygiant]

Whilst Stalin does some reshuffling, he feels in a 'generous' mood and gives Moldova gets Ukraine west of the Dniester (roughly the Izmail Oblast). Assuming no major butterflies and the Cold War ends on time, Moldova has access to shipping and Black Sea beaches (which would give them a tourist boost), as well as oil in the West-Dniester region.

Alternatively everything that went wrong in the 00's goes right for the country, or at least has a positive outcome.

 

[Holy Mackerel]

What if instead of expanding it goes the other way.
Romania eats most of Moldova but keeps some around (not sure why, maybe outside interference) as a Microstate/Dependency and coupled with Romania's internet infrastructure and low taxes becomes a haven for corporate HQ's, Tech companies, and some minor financial institutions. It's a pretty impossible scenario but maybe it's more plausible than a large Moldova?

 

[Alon]

What if instead of expanding it goes the other way.
Romania eats most of Moldova but keeps some around (not sure why, maybe outside interference) as a Microstate/Dependency and coupled with Romania's internet infrastructure and low taxes becomes a haven for corporate HQ's, Tech companies, and some minor financial institutions. It's a pretty impossible scenario but maybe it's more plausible than a large Moldova?

Why does anyone need a microstate in Eastern Europe? It's far from the people who would need it, and the corruption in the area is so great that it'd offer no added value over, say, Ukraine.

 

[Magnum]

Hi, I've been lurking around here for some time, but this is my first post.

I was wondering if there's some way to make Moldova, with a 1900 POD, one of the richest countries in Europe today, in the sense that it's a well-developed country comparable to that of Canada, the Netherlands or the Scandinavian countries?

IMHO it cannot be done.

The absolute closest I can think of is this:

step 1.
Romania sits out WW1 until almost the very end, growing rich on trade with the CPs

step 2.
Romania still gets its new territories at the end of the war, including the area of Bessarabia (most of which is modern-day Republic of Moldova)

step 3.
After the war, France decides to import grain from Romania instead of developing IndoChina for the purpose

step 4.
Romania has better economic policies in the 20s and 30s, like carrying out a more sensible land reform, a higher rate of industrialization and less corruption, as well as heavy state investment to prop up demand when the Great Depression hits.

step 5.
Some sort of ww2 takes place in the 30s-40s, but Romania stays neutral. When the dust settles, the USA and the USSR form their respective blocks as OTL. Romania joins NATO and the US invests heavily into it as a bulwark against Communism, with US military bases in Moldova providing a nice source of income.

 

[Remitonov]

.
step 5.
Some sort of ww2 takes place in the 30s-40s, but Romania stays neutral. When the dust settles, the USA and the USSR form their respective blocks as OTL. Romania joins NATO and the US invests heavily into it as a bulwark against Communism, with US military bases in Moldova providing a nice source of income.

Neutrality isn't a guarantee for protection. Just ask any country in Eastern Europe (in fact, any neutral European country that isn't Switzerland) isn't eager to correct the treaties of WWI. Stalin will go for Bessarabia if the WAllies seem like they're going to sit on their hands on the matter, and Romania could not hope to match the USSR in raw numbers and manufacturing capacity. It's why they had to give up Bessarabia without a fight OTL.

 

[Gog (♀)]

Nuclear war. For some reason NATO nukes miss Moldova.

 

[Citycat]

Post Cold War Moldova positions itself as an international trading state along the lines of Singapore, Hong Kong and Ireland.

Former Communist leaders are courted by the Moldovan government to use their connections with Communist China to attract investment opportunities from the PRC.

It becomes the "gateway to Eastern Europe" attracting investment from around the world.

 

[Magnum]

Neutrality isn't a guarantee for protection. Just ask any country in Eastern Europe (in fact, any neutral European country that isn't Switzerland) isn't eager to correct the treaties of WWI. Stalin will go for Bessarabia if the WAllies seem like they're going to sit on their hands on the matter, and Romania could not hope to match the USSR in raw numbers and manufacturing capacity. It's why they had to give up Bessarabia without a fight OTL.

Romania had oil Germany and Italy could not do without. A more forceful diplomacy might have seen Romania able to negotiate protection from the latter two in exchange for promising not to blow up the oil industry. Certainly requires Carol II to never step within 10 feet of the throne for starters though

 

[johnboy]

This.

 

[deathscompanion1]

Romania had oil Germany and Italy could not do without. A more forceful diplomacy might have seen Romania able to negotiate protection from the latter two in exchange for promising not to blow up the oil industry. Certainly requires Carol II to never step within 10 feet of the throne for starters though

The answer to that is how many thousand Romanians do you want shot?

The Germans had no compunctions about strip mining allies and enemies alike for resources and could play quite dirty. The Soviets were granted those lands from the pact and supplied far more oil than Romania did. The Romanians wanted revenge/future protection/to be on the winning side and once German troops are in country its game over for hard bargaining because nobody plays harder than the Nazis.

 

[Magnum]

The answer to that is how many thousand Romanians do you want shot?

The Germans had no compunctions about strip mining allies and enemies alike for resources and could play quite dirty. The Soviets were granted those lands from the pact and supplied far more oil than Romania did. The Romanians wanted revenge/future protection/to be on the winning side and once German troops are in country its game over for hard bargaining because nobody plays harder than the Nazis.

Not quite. The Soviet supply of oil was circumstantial and could be cut off at any time on Stalin's whim. Without Romanian oil powering the Wehrmacht's panzers, no Barbarossa is ever going to work, and everyone knew that. Even Hitler said his biggest fear was losing Romania whilst he was busy dealing with France (he expressed it in terms of Stalin taking over the whole country, but Romania turning hostile works just as welll)

 

[deathscompanion1]

Not quite. The Soviet supply of oil was circumstantial and could be cut off at any time on Stalin's whim. Without Romanian oil powering the Wehrmacht's panzers, no Barbarossa is ever going to work, and everyone knew that. Even Hitler said his biggest fear was losing Romania whilst he was busy dealing with France (he expressed it in terms of Stalin taking over the whole country, but Romania turning hostile works just as welll)

He also feared losing Norway, feared losing Yugoslavia, feared losing the Netherlands, feared losing Italy and feared losing various nations. His response was to go on the attack.


Its not smart to back a rabid animal into a corner. The Germans long term strategy is fucked the Romanians are invaded and have had front row seats and a minor expirience of what that is like. They arent going to play chicken with their country. The Germans can't yet protect them and by the time they can they are offering revenge which the Romanians want for a relatively modest contribution. Nobody expected the Soviets to win WWII pretty much everyone thought it would be a cake walk for the Germans who smashed real great powers and various minor ones with startling ease whilst the Soviets could not even beat the Finns and were standing around in Eastern Poland and part of Romania showing off the poor quality of their frontline units to observers across the border.


To the Romanians the choice was as far as they knew help the Germans as an ally and win big in an easy fight or get curbstomped for the sake of the Soviets who had already invaded them.