1980 Republic Primary



from left to right: Ronald Reagan, John Anderson, Howard Baker, Bob Dole, Phil Crane, George Bush (sitting)

not shown: John Connally

The conservatives were Reagan, Dole, Crane, and Connally.

You're doing the whole stream of consciousness thing again.
 
. . . whole stream of consciousness thing again.
I'm trying ;)

So, if Reagan doesn't get the nomination and we're looking at the remaining six

if one of the three conservatives, then maybe things largely the same,

if one of the three liberals or moderates, then things probably different.

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* but there really are a ton of specifics about Reagan, as there would be about Connally for example
 
I'm trying ;)

So, if Reagan doesn't get the nomination and we're looking at the remaining six

if one of the three conservatives, then maybe things largely the same,

if one of the three liberals or moderates, then things probably different.

----------------------------------

* but there really are a ton of specifics about Reagan, as there would be about Connally for example

Not necessarily. It isn't just Reagan he mentioned, but also the New Right (though in this congtext, the second New Right). It's just that Reagan seems to be the embodiment of that.

Though common theory is that w/o Reagan, we have Bush Sr. And he'd do a decent job. He certainly would not have advocated for supply-side economics and so probbaly wouldn't have made those big changes and he was not a big religious figure like Reagan was.

Then who'd replace Bush? Dole?
 
I'm trying ;)

So, if Reagan doesn't get the nomination and we're looking at the remaining six

if one of the three conservatives, then maybe things largely the same,

if one of the three liberals or moderates, then things probably different.

----------------------------------

* but there really are a ton of specifics about Reagan, as there would be about Connally for example

I'm not so sure. Do any of those other guys have anything close to Reagan's personal charm? I know Dole sure doesn't. Without Reagan's charisma, the party and the larger movement does not get united the way it did under Reagan.
 
Then who'd replace Bush? Dole?

Probably not if he still serves as Ford's running mate in 1976. It's more likely to be Baker since he and Bush were close politically. Or perhaps Phil Crane if Bush wanted a conservative on the ticket.
 
I’m personally a fan of a Baker/Connally ticket. Souther based, Baker has a lot of Congressional experience and is a noted moderate. Connally, while probably not being the best in a POTUS-VEEP team, would be a fantastic attack dog on the campaign trail (having served that function for Johnson and Nixon to some extent) and could be a good surrogate to keep conservatives backing Baker, even if he comes out on the left side of some issues. While Connally was and is thought of as a conservative, he’s probably better described as a moderate.

There’s been an article from either ‘79 or ‘80 circulating here where somebody goes into a lot of detail, but even though Connally talks conservative, attacking waste and such, he’s really just advocating for minor reform rather than a change in policy. In regards to welfare, whenever asked he would attack the abuse of welfare and advocate investigating fraud. What he didn’t do was say anything about actually changing or abolishing welfare!

But Baker/Connally being all Southern when the South was swinging could hurt them a bit outside the region, plus Baker and Connally had very different personalities and could conceivably have disliked each other on a personal level.

And there’s the matter of Connally getting up there in years and probably preferring the Presidency or retirement over spending most of the rest of his life as VP to Howard Baker.
 
Maybe Truman reforming the tax code would help prevent the rise of movement conservatism. That the WWII tax code didn't seem to be going anywhere was part of why Reagan developed the views that he did.
 
And there’s the matter of Connally getting up there in years and probably preferring the Presidency or retirement over spending most of the rest of his life as VP to Howard Baker.

And on a national level, his service under Nixon and later indictment (on a charge for which he was later acquitted) would not play well with voters. Especially with independents. Since Baker is a Southerner and a moderate, he's more likely to pick Crane or even Reagan.
 
Maybe Truman reforming the tax code would help prevent the rise of movement conservatism. That the WWII tax code didn't seem to be going anywhere was part of why Reagan developed the views that he did.

Given Truman's awful relationship with Congress - even when controlled by Democrats - and the fact that almost all of his major liberal proposals fell flat I don't think this is a very plausible POD. However, if Dewey defeated Truman in 1948 and - unlike Eisenhower - he maintains a strong network of moderate Republican politicians throughout the country and particularly in Congress this could help to prevent the rise of the New Right.
 
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