AHC: Mitt Romney & The Republicans Win The 2012 US Election

EMTSATX

Banned
One interesting thing that I find about a botched Bin Laden raid is the relation between Bin Laden and ISIS (assuming they still gain a foothold). Al Qaida had issued a fatwa against ISIS and many of their former affiliates switched allegiance if I'm not mistaken.
I'm not sure about an actual fatwa. I do know that Al-Zawahiri sent a letter basically saying "knock it off". Al-Qaeda thought that killing fellow Muslims and enforcing some of the more puritanical interpretation of the religion to be bad press. I also suspect Bin Laden wanted/ thought he deserved more than being Sheikh and that he should be the head of a Caliphate (which he always saw in the future).

If Bin Laden had lived it might have been interesting to see if some type of civil war had developed. Stuff like suicide bombing each other (Al-Qaeda had plenty of practice there see the " Lion of the North".) To telling the Americans/Saudi's where to drop bombs.

I will agree with others, here. If there is one area Obama has received consistent criticism for, from both sides of the aisle it has been his foreign policy where he has been compared to Jimmy Carter. I'm not going to get into that debate, I will just say I have not been a fan of our current President. But, a disastrous raid in Pakistan would only reinforce comparisons to "Eagle Claw". Let's say you have Bin Laden escaping into the night. Say that Seal Team 6 is largely decimated by the Pakistani Army in place, with the rest being captured and they threaten to try the rest as " bandits ". They also say that if they had been informed they would have helped and almost certainly would have captured Bin Laden and " this is not the way Allies treat each other! Now, Bin Laden has "escaped" to the Federally administered Tribal Lands. For fun let's say India takes this opportunity to rattle it's sabre about the "Terrorist's in Islamabad". Nothing actually happens but there is a tense week.

Anti-Pakistani feeling is very high in the United States. Lindsey and McCain introduce legislation to cut off every Penny of aid of every kind to Pakistan. Obama threatens a Veto. The general perception of his foreign policy is incompetent to put it in polite terms. Even Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow describe it as " horrible " and "a drift". Obama's approval drops 12 points overnight.

Chief Justice John Roberts is on the fence as to which way to vote on the affordable care act. At the last moment an unlikely alliance of Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia convince him of the questionable Constitution validity of the act. Justice Kennedy tells him " John, I know where you are at, I have been there many times. I mean Ronald Reagan appointed me to this seat. But you are the Chief Justice and a young man, This may be the most important vote you ever cast on this court! Chief Justice Roberts feeling weak from a recent seizure (not disclosed to the public or the President, indeed not disclosed to all of his fellow Justice's) leaves Justice Scalia to write the majority opinion that the ACA is not Constitutional. President Obama's entire first term has been wiped away.

The President is very busy campaigning in Ohio and Michigan, and sadly can not take the time to meet with Governor Chris Christie to tour the hurricane damaged New Jersey coast (or the New York damage.) The headline of the New York Post runs the headline screams for several day "Worse than Bush!" "Katrina was a bitch, Sandy is inconvenience" "Obama to North East 'Drop Dead'".

So, the above is my interpretation of how things could have played out. You may not think it realistic. I do say this, you still have to do away one wat or another with the 47% comment. Chris Christie is probably very greatful he and Obama do not have " the hug". As well as Obama handled Sandy IIRC, and as sympathetic as he was, and as "cool" as he is considered President Obama has not always been a "feel your pain" kind of guy. He has/had problems being seen as a cold fish aloof kind of guy. If he was in a tight battle for reelection he might have reacted worse. He could have come off as cold, without meaning to. It's just my interpretation of how things might have done. The fact I think Romney needed 2of the 3 to happen to have a shot at winning speaks volumes to Obama's strength and Romney's weakness. Really, it should have been a closer election for the GOP. The fact it was not and that Romney limped into the nomination against Newt and Santorum of all people speaks to his weakness as a General election candidate.
 
2012 House elections
John Boehner-Republican: 256+14 50.6%
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic:179-14 45.8%
435 seats
218 for majority

The number of Republican seats may seem a bit excessive, but it is because of a 3% swing to the Republicans from the Democrats. This means all seats won by 6% or less by the Democrats go to the Republicans, and it is roughly the same swing I am using to get the Romney win.
 
One interesting thing that I find about a botched Bin Laden raid is the relation between Bin Laden and ISIS (assuming they still gain a foothold). Al Qaida had issued a fatwa against ISIS and many of their former affiliates switched allegiance if I'm not mistaken.

The Islamic State of Iraq had been beaten down from an insurgency to terror cells by 2011, they needed a few years to rebuild after Syria exploded and we pulled out of Iraq.

They were still allied with al-Qaeda until early 2014.

Not getting Bin Laden won't sink Obama, it had no real effect on the 2012 race as it was way too far out, he was below his pre-Bin Laden numbers after the debt crisis that Summer and Fall.

It did have an effect on Obama's foreign policy and not a good one, but in terms of effect on the 2012 race... no way too far out and 2012 wasn't a national security year anyway.
 
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