AHC: Minimal white and Asian settlement in South Africa, with a PoD after 1600

raharris1973

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Mostly out of genuine curiosity, but also in part to help balance out the tendency for alternate scenarios here that touch on South Africa to make for more extensive white settlement there (and sometimes in other parts of Africa), how can we make the white and Asian presence in South Africa be as minimal as possible, without also short-circuiting the European age of discovery and establishment of global maritime trade routes?

Over the medium and long term, how does South Africa develop differently?

As a further guideline, in later times, if there is a wholesale colonial partition of Africa, let's say that the white and Asian presence in South Africa never gets any bigger than it was in Kenya and Uganda.
 
The Ottomans build the Suez Canal or else a different European power somehow conquers Egypt and does it themselves, making the Cape far less important.
 
perhaps the Bantu migration into the area happened earlier and would be far too much trouble for the dutch to establish a presence there.
 
The Portuguese are more successful in the 1500s, claim it, run it exclusively as a plantation colony?
 
The Portuguese are more successful in the 1500s, claim it, run it exclusively as a plantation colony?

While Natal would make a good plantation colony the cape, with its Mediterranean climate, fertile land and its large fish ressources seems much less ideal for plantation, even if they don’t care about settling it it’s likely some azoreans settlers would still go there in the 16th century, and from natural growth alone would number at the very least in the hundred of thousands if not million today.

Portuguese plantation colonies were settled, Sao Tomé has a 10% mixed race population for a reason, if Natal is a plantation colony one could still expect a pre-modern mixed race population size of a few dozen thousand like in Mozambique, it would still end up with some dozen thousands of Afro european today. That would be on top of the cape. Cape Verde also had a significant european migration there and is majority mixed race today because of it @EnvarKadri

The Dutch were some of the worst settlers in colonial age, mostly because the Netherlands was actually wealthy and a good place to live in and there were less uneducated poor farmers than in any other country, despite the fact they held it for a century and a half they only sent like 2,000 settlers, anyone else colonising , French included, would likely result in a larger population in the cape. Iirc at some point the Huguenots at the cape outnumbered the Dutch.

An ottoman Suez/Pharaoh Canal would likely still be a massive problem from Christian european countries and I guess they would still want to control the second way to the Indies, even if a Christian country controls it rivals would still want to control the way through the cape.

The fertile climate and the vulnerable Khoisan population of the cape make this challenge decently hard, earlier Bantu migration there seems the best shot, the Xhosa were at port elisabeth in the 17th century, if you can both make them go to the cape and also have them become unified (maybe a peripherical client kingdom of a stronger Mutapa kingdom?), if you can have this as well as few european interest (maybe the Dutch keep Angola and the Portuguese decide to focus on Mozambique/Natal to keep control of the Indies, or there is a Portugal screw) along with the Xhosa successfully defeating some expeditionary mission that could keep the cape European free until at least the 19th century, just keep it out of English hands, also preventing a scramble for Africa would help massively, if it can become a decently wealthy agriculture exporting kingdom under european vassalage/influence in the late 19th century it could prevent European settlemnet effort there
 
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An ottoman Suez/Pharaoh Canal would likely still be a massive problem from Christian european countries and I guess they would still want to control the second way to the Indies, even if a Christian country controls it rivals would still want to control the way through the cape.
What if Egypt and this earlier equivalent of the Suez Canal are not controlled by the Ottomans? Such as a Crusader kingdom in Egypt or a surviving Mameluke Sultanate, but generally friendly towards European trade either way. Could this diminish the importance, real or perceived, of the Cape of Good Hope, since the route to Asia through the Red Sea would be shorter?
 
What if Egypt and this earlier equivalent of the Suez Canal are not controlled by the Ottomans? Such as a Crusader kingdom in Egypt or a surviving Mameluke Sultanate, but generally friendly towards European trade either way. Could this diminish the importance, real or perceived, of the Cape of Good Hope, since the route to Asia through the Red Sea would be shorter?

A ship coming from the atlantic - from northern europe would still have to cross the mediteranean, which means croissing spanish or british controlled gibraltar and the strait of sicily, I could see the Netherlands or Portugal still trying to secure the second way to the indies.

This may help italians states become involved in asian colonization and trade though.
 

This may help italians states become involved in asian colonization and trade though.
That’s what i also figured. Venice and/or Genoa could be given more survivability through political and economic agreements with Egypt, as they tried to do with OTL Mameluke Egypt until Portugal smashed their expansion drive at Diu in 1509.
 

raharris1973

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While Natal would make a good plantation colony the cape, with its Mediterranean climate, fertile land and its large fish ressources seems much less ideal for plantation, even if they don’t care about settling it it’s likely some azoreans settlers would still go there in the 16th century, and from natural growth alone would number at the very least in the hundred of thousands if not million today.

Portuguese plantation colonies were settled, Sao Tomé has a 10% mixed race population for a reason, if Natal is a plantation colony one could still expect a pre-modern mixed race population size of a few dozen thousand like in Mozambique, it would still end up with some dozen thousands of Afro european today. That would be on top of the cape. Cape Verde also had a significant european migration there and is majority mixed race today because of it @EnvarKadri

The Dutch were some of the worst settlers in colonial age, mostly because the Netherlands was actually wealthy and a good place to live in and there were less uneducated poor farmers than in any other country, despite the fact they held it for a century and a half they only sent like 2,000 settlers, anyone else colonising , French included, would likely result in a larger population in the cape. Iirc at some point the Huguenots at the cape outnumbered the Dutch.

An ottoman Suez/Pharaoh Canal would likely still be a massive problem from Christian european countries and I guess they would still want to control the second way to the Indies, even if a Christian country controls it rivals would still want to control the way through the cape.

The fertile climate and the vulnerable Khoisan population of the cape make this challenge decently hard, earlier Bantu migration there seems the best shot, the Xhosa were at port elisabeth in the 17th century, if you can both make them go to the cape and also have them become unified (maybe a peripherical client kingdom of a stronger Mutapa kingdom?), if you can have this as well as few european interest (maybe the Dutch keep Angola and the Portuguese decide to focus on Mozambique/Natal to keep control of the Indies, or there is a Portugal screw) along with the Xhosa successfully defeating some expeditionary mission that could keep the cape European free until at least the 19th century, just keep it out of English hands, also preventing a scramble for Africa would help massively, if it can become a decently wealthy agriculture exporting kingdom under european vassalage/influence in the late 19th century it could prevent European settlemnet effort there


This.

I'd say KutKu wins the thread. The challenge is not exactly easy without the removing the age of exploration entirely. Earlier Bantu occupation probably would make the biggest difference.

A Portuguese Cape is a fascinating scenario indeed, but I would say it would in all likelihood increase the white genetic imprint on the region, not diminish it, given the Portuguese propensity to emigrate and their suitability for the Cape's climate. The Portguese influenced Cape would have far less rigid color lines than the Trekboer and later British influenced Cape, but would probably have alot of people in all parts of the color continuum, like OTL Brazil, and massive Portuguese cultural influence.
 
This.

I'd say KutKu wins the thread. The challenge is not exactly easy without the removing the age of exploration entirely. Earlier Bantu occupation probably would make the biggest difference.

A Portuguese Cape is a fascinating scenario indeed, but I would say it would in all likelihood increase the white genetic imprint on the region, not diminish it, given the Portuguese propensity to emigrate and their suitability for the Cape's climate. The Portguese influenced Cape would have far less rigid color lines than the Trekboer and later British influenced Cape, but would probably have alot of people in all parts of the color continuum, like OTL Brazil, and massive Portuguese cultural influence.

AFAIK the Bantu in contrast to the Khoi, San etc. were relatively late arrivals themselves. IMHO if anything the Dutch settled (colonized is another matter) too little in general, not too much (looks at England:openedeyewink:), heck I'd say the VOC saw the Cape as an necessary evil. Moreover the challenge was minimal White settlement, not no White settlement. A general answer would be a more hostile native population more able to resist, though settler-wise the Dutch were not the one known to send over plenty settlers, the Dutch focus was the profitability of the Trading Companies (VOC and to a lesser degree WIC), settling was a side-show for the then very wealthy Dutch. IMHO other European settlers won't necessarily make that side of the equation better, given the climate I'd imagine that a French Cape would be more attractive than Québec for French settlers. And even IOTL many French Huguenots, which fled to their Calvinist Dutch brethren, ended up in the Cape.
 
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