AHC: Mexico Reconquers the American Southwest

Make it possible for Mexico to be able to launch a war of reconquest of the American southwest in what became part of the Mexican Cessation.
 
Before 1900?

Best,

Time traveling nukes are at least as plausible as anything else that could weaken the US after 1848, to the point that Mexico could launch a successful reconquest.

(Yes, I forgot which forum this was.)

You're looking at external invasion, but the only good time for that would be during the American Civil War, and Mexico was busy being invaded themselves at the time. Butterfly away Napoleon III's wife's ambitions (possibly by avoiding the marriage) so that France isn't looking to conquer Mexico, provoke Britain into war with the USA, and then Mexico might be able to make a successful invasion.

It'd be temporary, though - if the Union wins out, they're going to want their territory back, and if the Confederacy wins out, they're going to want it as 'rightfully theirs', and either one is strong enough to beat up on Mexico (though the Confederacy would need to rebuild strength first).

Go further than the Civil War, and the USA can now fend off any invasions from Europe successfully, leaving no opportunity for Mexico.
 
Last edited:

TFSmith121

Banned
The other problem, of course, is that in the 1860s, the

Time traveling nukes are at least as plausible as anything else that could weaken the US after 1848, to the point that Mexico could launch a successful reconquest.

(Yes, I forgot which forum this was.)

You're looking at external invasion, but the only good time for that would be during the American Civil War, and Mexico was busy being invaded themselves at the time. Butterfly away Napoleon III's wife's ambitions (possibly by avoiding the marriage) so that France isn't looking to conquer Mexico, provoke Britain into war with the USA, and then Mexico might be able to make a successful invasion.

It'd be temporary, though - if the Union wins out, they're going to want their territory back, and if the Confederacy wins out, they're going to want it as 'rightfully theirs', and either one is strong enough to beat up on Mexico (though the Confederacy would need to rebuild strength first).

Go further than the Civil War, and the USA can now fend off any invasions from Europe successfully, leaving no opportunity for Mexico.

The other problem, of course, is that in the 1860s, the US and Mexico were actually on very good terms.;)

Best,
 
It isn't the whole of the cession, but it will work somewhat.

Different ACW by some means (perhaps the war is triggered by the election of a President less determined not to surrender than Lincoln was, perhaps Atlanta isn't secured in time and Lincoln fails to win re-election; I'm not an expert on the period by any means but all sorts of people have their ideas) leads to a Confederate victory. Unfortunately for the CSA this doesn't change the fact that the powers of Western Europe aren't especially fond of slavery, so the political pressure from moralists to not return to Southern cotton would be strong; a perpetual supply of bad press for the CSA due to escaped slaves fleeing to the USA, keeping the brutalities of slavery in the public mind, will help this. The USA, too, may well be inclined to take a similar step out of spite. As the Confederate economy goes down the toilet under some not-that-competent management and perhaps even undergoes some civil wars of its own due to the precedent of separatism, a lot of people in the rump USA come to hold the opinion that they're better off without having to pacify and subsidise a poor and hostile region and don't want to spend their blood and gold reconquering it, à la the aftermath of the Great American War in Look to the West. Decades later, Mexico (be it imperial or republican)—under a government that doesn't care so much about its people's blood but cares a lot about that sweet, sweet oil—decides to pick on its poorly northeastern neighbour, perhaps with an initial excuse of "restoring order", and makes a land-grab.

It's a bit hand-wavy but it's easier than having Mexico stand up to the USA and win.
 
I think I have some ideas...

Have a California more populated by Mexicans, possibly with better relations with Native American tribes such as the Comanche, too. Also, get rid of Santa Anna. The so called "Napoleon of the New World" must NOT return to power under any circumstance.

This might make the Mexican-American war a MUCH tougher affair for the US. It can mean three scenarion here:

1) The US fails to acquire the Southwest.

2) The US only acquires part of the Southwest, likely with territories north of the Missouri Compromise line (and only get Texas and part of New Mexico for the Southerners, with Northern California being strictly northern territory.

3) The US still wins, but as a result, the war is FAR more taxing, resulting in several more losses for the US, to which they only win thanks to the political chaos in Mexico.

Note: The first two scenatios are likely to cause an earlier US-American Civil War, for the South will be twice as bitter for not getting much land to expand their "peculiar institution".

Running with either 2 or 3, we have far more angry Mexicans in the land, which will likely provoke several conflicts with the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant settlers, who themselves already have various degrees of racism against the "half-Indian savages", resulting in several race riots. Furthermore, if the South is mad enough, they might flat-out try to enslave the darker-skinned Mestizos and Native Americans in the area. This in turn may well cause more troubles for the US as well, for the Mexicans won't go down and submit to enslavement without a fight.

Going from this, we can have Mexico have a sort of "wake-up call" that forces them to recognize their precarious situation and begin a process of rapid modernization, restoring the federal constitution and cutting down the power of the church (or at the very leasat, making it cater to the state's interests under that threat), pretty much a Mexican Revolution much earlier on the line.

Now, once the US Civil War erupts (Which can happen earlier if the conditions are right), then we possibly have loads of Angry Mexicans rising up in arms themselves, seeking to return to Mexico.

Then, if we butterfly away Napoleon's invasion, we might have a successful reconquest of at least the CSA's side of the land.

Lastly, Lincoln must NOT be the president under these circumstances. He will NOT let the land return to Mexico.
 
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