With a POD or PODs no earlier than the ascension of Gorbachev as leader of the Soviet Union, what's the messiest possible way that communism in Eastern Europe could have collapsed? I'm talking coups, mass unrest, civil wars, wars between different post-communist states, annexations and change in borders, revanchism, more totalitarian states established/failure of democracy to take root where it did IOTL - you name it.
Some thoughts...
-Any specific turn of events possible at this point that would cause the USSR to invade one or more of the Warsaw Pact states to prevent it from falling out of their sphere of influence? Poland comes to mind. I imagine there'd need to be even more unrest in Poland somehow, and maybe Gorbachev would have to be replaced fairly quickly by some hardliner? Any possibility that this could turn into a real Vietnam-style quagmire?
-Assuming Gorbachev is replaced, for whatever reason, fairly soon into his tenure, who would be the worst plausible last Secretary of the Communist Party to serve for any real duration of time?
-What's the messiest possible collapse of the USSR possible? Is it possible to just create a thousand different Chechnya-type situations within those borders? Insurgencies in Ukraine, the Caucasus, etc? A coup leading to an actual civil war? Perhaps even a few nukes dropped here and there? I can see two possible ways that this could end - hardliners seize the USSR and prevent much of SSRs from seceding by means of heavy occupation, or an even more total dissolution, with places like Chechnya and Tatarstan seceding. Which is more likely?
-Any possibility of a violent collapse of Czechoslovakia, or at least a more turbulent one?
-There have been tons of threads about how the Yugoslav Wars could have gone worse, but it is also worth discussing here. Which would be worse - a messier, more complete Balkanization of the country, or a Greater Serbia being established by Milosevic or someone even more brutal?
-Any other possible civil wars?
-Could Bulgarian irredentism somehow lead them to war with any of their neighbors - perhaps directly intervening in the Yugoslav Wars to annex Macedonia?
-What about a war between Hungary and Romania over Transylvania?
-This one is really out there, but bear with me. I've seen scenarios posited where, in a late-stage Polish rebellion against the USSR where East Germany stays loyal and assists Moscow, that the latter state could be compensated with some land at Poland's expense (probably not full 1937 borders in the east, but still). How plausible is that? If it happens, I imagine it could spark further DDR-Polish fighting when and if the USSR gets distracted by its own internal problems.
Any other thoughts? What would be the foreign environment most conducive for a messier collapse here - for instance, who would be the worst possible US president to have in office at around this time?
Some thoughts...
-Any specific turn of events possible at this point that would cause the USSR to invade one or more of the Warsaw Pact states to prevent it from falling out of their sphere of influence? Poland comes to mind. I imagine there'd need to be even more unrest in Poland somehow, and maybe Gorbachev would have to be replaced fairly quickly by some hardliner? Any possibility that this could turn into a real Vietnam-style quagmire?
-Assuming Gorbachev is replaced, for whatever reason, fairly soon into his tenure, who would be the worst plausible last Secretary of the Communist Party to serve for any real duration of time?
-What's the messiest possible collapse of the USSR possible? Is it possible to just create a thousand different Chechnya-type situations within those borders? Insurgencies in Ukraine, the Caucasus, etc? A coup leading to an actual civil war? Perhaps even a few nukes dropped here and there? I can see two possible ways that this could end - hardliners seize the USSR and prevent much of SSRs from seceding by means of heavy occupation, or an even more total dissolution, with places like Chechnya and Tatarstan seceding. Which is more likely?
-Any possibility of a violent collapse of Czechoslovakia, or at least a more turbulent one?
-There have been tons of threads about how the Yugoslav Wars could have gone worse, but it is also worth discussing here. Which would be worse - a messier, more complete Balkanization of the country, or a Greater Serbia being established by Milosevic or someone even more brutal?
-Any other possible civil wars?
-Could Bulgarian irredentism somehow lead them to war with any of their neighbors - perhaps directly intervening in the Yugoslav Wars to annex Macedonia?
-What about a war between Hungary and Romania over Transylvania?
-This one is really out there, but bear with me. I've seen scenarios posited where, in a late-stage Polish rebellion against the USSR where East Germany stays loyal and assists Moscow, that the latter state could be compensated with some land at Poland's expense (probably not full 1937 borders in the east, but still). How plausible is that? If it happens, I imagine it could spark further DDR-Polish fighting when and if the USSR gets distracted by its own internal problems.
Any other thoughts? What would be the foreign environment most conducive for a messier collapse here - for instance, who would be the worst possible US president to have in office at around this time?