AHC: McCain wins, 2008

kentucky is not the Deep South. Neither is Arkansas. Now, granted, the last time a democrat not named Clinton carried either was Carter in '76. But Arkansas is very blue on the state level and does have the Clinton connection, while Kentucky is theoretically flippable (McCain's margin wasn't exactly overwhelming, Obama didn't concentrate there much, and somehow i feel that Hillary would have a better shot there.

As are Kentucky and Tennessee. Democrats outnumber Republicans in terms of registration 2:1 in Kentucky, for instance, and the Democratic presidential primary here gave Hillary a VERY comfortable victory over Obama. Without Obama on the ticket, many of the white working class voters who went to McCain would probably switch their vote to Hillary in KY, TN, and AR, very much putting those states into play.

Although without Obama on the ticket, VA and NC are probably losers for the Democrats, as is Indiana. South Carolina and Georgia won't be nearly as close as they were IOTL, either because of a smaller African-American turnout.
 
White Southern loyalty to Bill would not necessarily translate into loyalty to Hillary.
Just as White Southern loyalty to Franklin would not necessarily translate into loyalty to Eleanor.
 
POD's

The Iraq surge and draw down are faster and more noticeable than OTL

The TARP program goes soley to open up credit and derivitives markets ie the gov't buys mortgages as the buyer of last resort in auctions... this is wildly successful, and stops the recession dead in its tracks with home prices experiencing only modest declines before the election (less than a 10 percent haircut).

McCain is able to finnagle being a co sponser of the bill that "saved the economy" and he chooses a young and aggressive VP, but not Palin... lets say Paul Ryan, who engages Obama and Biden successfully in some economic debates through the media. (no original roadmap, but he does successfully put together a plan to reform social security without privitising it)

McCain is able to point to his record of supporting the successful surge and a more successful TARP, and unemployment only ticks up less than 1 percent in 2008

McCain has a decisive put down in the debates using a sacrificial George Bush. something like "Senator Obama, you are not running against George Bush, I have my own policies and agenda, I have served in the senate for over 20 years and served America my whole life, the least you could do is address me and my positions directly"

Ron Paul openly and warmly endorses McCain/Ryan pushing his insane internet fans to vote and be active for them. A small cult of personality develops around Ryan who is now seen as the young and enthusiastic new blood of the republican party...he is seen as particularly handsome/presidential looking by many women, and does several successful female oriented television appearences (the view, ellen, oprah) where he and his young family come off as extremely likable to those who are not policy wonks


McCain wins comfortably with over 300 EV's as Obama's organization becomes less enthusiastic after numerous polls before the election show McCain with a comfortable lead in the key battle ground states (FL, VA, MO, NV) and he even pulls off a surprise wins in NJ and WI

The Dems still control congress but with only marginal majorities. McCain has many dem friends on the hill who are happy to work with him and the Republican's and America is a brighter place
 

Penelope

Banned
As are Kentucky and Tennessee. Democrats outnumber Republicans in terms of registration 2:1 in Kentucky, for instance, and the Democratic presidential primary here gave Hillary a VERY comfortable victory over Obama. Without Obama on the ticket, many of the white working class voters who went to McCain would probably switch their vote to Hillary in KY, TN, and AR, very much putting those states into play.

Although without Obama on the ticket, VA and NC are probably losers for the Democrats, as is Indiana. South Carolina and Georgia won't be nearly as close as they were IOTL, either because of a smaller African-American turnout.

VA is very quickly going very blue. Unless the GOP can appeal to the north of the left-leaning enclaves of Richmond, VA Beach, and Fairfax, Virginia will be as blue as Pennsylvania by 2016.
 

Kharn

Banned
I could see him winning if he is firmly against the Bank Stimulus and for the Auto Stimulus(Forgot when that happened so the Auto thing might not work), it would make him appeal to the American people. If he can manage to actually stall the passing of it or convince the Republicans to simply not vote for it, a lot of America would like him more for it. So long as he makes it clear that the consequences are going to severe in the short term, but that it will shorten the time to the recovery, people might be willing to go along with it. Another thing he could do is to be firmly pro-immigration law enforcement and pro-immigration reform. This might get a good chunk of independents on his side as well as maybe some(....yeah right) Black voters. Not that they mattered with most of their population being in the South. I still firmly believe it was White Liberals who got Obama elected. If he can make the case that in order for reformed Immigration Laws that would allow more immigrants in legally to matter, the borders must be secured, he might, MIGHT, be able to clench some reformist. Hmmm. Honestly, just taking a few more Conservative positions could actually help him. In the OTL campaign, he just appeared, to some, a watered-down Democrat. Also, a different VP. Hillary would just be trading votes. Not gaining them. This victory of his, if against Obama, would be incredibly close and would...slightly anger the Black community. If it is against Hillary, then it would be less close and Hilarity would ensue. Iraq gets a slower(at first) but steady withdrawal. Afghanistan, however, gets the reinforcements asked for and gets them almost when they're asked. As such, what's his face might not get sacked. McCain might even send a bit more and talk about actually retaking some areas. Tax cuts are undoable, period, and McCain knows it. That giant stimulus package that did nothing but make debt won't happen. However, the Auto bailout could easily still happen, with a possible disbanding of the Unions. The deficit will grow, but only slightly, due to the economy slacking. The F-35 and F-22 will be ordered in greater numbers. Fuck yeah. Our president wouldn't be bowing to everybody and our First Lady wouldn't be patting royalty on the back... The oil Crisis will still suck for him. Other than this, I can see the Democrats painted as not only the part of incompetent tards, but as the opposition party. Shit sucks for them in 2010.
 
Ridge and Lieberman are both plausible enough candidates for VP.

Lieberman is plausible in the sense that he was seriously considered; but that serious consideration only lead to 'there is no way we can do this'. (This was what lead to Palin wasn't it - half the campaign wanted Lieberman and half of it wanted Romney) There was an expectation that there could be actual scuffles in the aisles if Lieberman was the nominee. Beyond the pro-choice label, his and Ridge's voting records on abortion are very different.

Also, anyone who believes that Arkansas wouldn't go for Hillary Clinton hasn't been looking at what the polls were very resoundingly saying at the time, or has chosen to ignore them. The Clintons are pretty much royalty in Arkansas; if Hillary had won the nomination, then Bill would have campaigned non-stop for her in Arkansas and the South. Places like Arkansas and West Virginia would have been very much in play. Christ, Kerry only lost by about 5% in Arkansas in 2004. (and note how strongly they rejected Obama by comparison - and people are saying the Clintons don't have any special pull with the people there?)
 
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Kharn

Banned
This is all ASB regardless. There's simply no way any Republican could win in '08 after eight years of Bush. :rolleyes:

Actually no. If the Republican in question is actually Conservative, then yeah, a Republican could have won. Suck it, Europe.
 
Actually no. If the Republican in question is actually Conservative, then yeah, a Republican could have won. Suck it, Europe.

if the USA is such a Conservative nation then how did Barrack Obama win 52 percent of the vote? I agree with Wolf Brother a McCain or any other Republican victory is ASB. Not only is that Republican tied to an unpopular President but he or she would be blamed by much of the voters for the economic collapse that was evident before election day
 
Any scenario would need the economy not to implode before the election like it did OTL. The moment the economy blew up was the moment Obama is guaranteed to win.

An idiot. Or actively malevolent. But there was almost nothing Conservative in his governance. And fcuk the ACU.
Even if McCain was "conservative" in your opinion, he still probably would have not won. In fact, it could have driven even more independent voters away from McCain, making Obama's margin of victory even greater.
 
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Actually no. If the Republican in question is actually Conservative, then yeah, a Republican could have won. Suck it, Europe.

Really, because I seem to recall McCain playing it conservative and getting his ass handed to him in the election as independent went in droves to Obama fleeing Palin. And how exactly does being even more conservative help in in states like Pennsylvania which he has to win? 2008 was a year of doom for conservatives. Super majorities in both houses, along with an electoral landslide, prove that.
 
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