AHC: Maximum Zunghar Khanate-

Can the Zunghars replace the Kazakhs in Central Asia? That might have potential.

Actually, that may have been the only area they could have expanded beyond OTL as Qing China was a barrier to expansion to the East and South and ultimately the agent of the Zunghar demise. OTL, they generally had the better end of things when in conflict with the Kazakhs.

Moving their power westwards might have preserved their power longer, although, admittedly, it would eventually bring them into collision with other ascendent powers. I suspect that they would fall under Russian domination by the early 19th C. at latest.
 

raharris1973

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Could the Zunghars conquer all the Kazak hordes and reach the Caspian Sea or Volga? What about Bukhara, Afghanistan or Persia? What would the impact be on the modern religious composition of Central Asia?

If they extend westwards, do the Qing ultimately follow them and establish a border much further west?
 
Well if I remember correctly the Qing stopped at the current border and didn't go on to conquer the Kazakhs because Xinjiang was an immense logistical undertaking for the Chinese army and the bureaucracy was viciously against it.

If the Dzunghars expand further I think the impetus would have existed for the Qing to go further west, thought that would well bring them into earlier conflict with Russia.
 

raharris1973

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The Qing were motivated to conquer and pacify Xinjiang (which originally included a chunk of eastern Kazakhstan until the mid-nineteenth century) because of their policy to bring all Mongols under their control. They did not want an independent focus of loyalty for Lama Buddhist following Mongols, which led to their conquest of outer Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang. In their mid-18th century campaigns they did sweep up Islamic Turkic oases and cities south of the tien shan, mainly while rounding off their borders.

I at least see the Qing having motive to follow the Zunghars as far as they have a contiguous state. The Russians in OTL tolerated the Qing's wars and generally perceived the Chinese as better and more useful neighbors. Russian patience could run thin though if the Qing march all the way to the Caspian.

One effect of a Xinjiang extending further west and, say, covering the territory north of Afghanistan from the 1700s is it might delay the onset of British worries about a Russian threat to India.
 
Dzungars could have included OTL Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kygyzystan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai as well as some part of Inner Mongolia, Northwestern Gansu.

You need
1. Keep intact Khalkha-Oirat alliance intact and prevent Khalkha Mongols voluntarily submit to Qing Dynasty. Over time annex Khalkha Mongols.
2. Make Kalmyk Khanate established on eastern shore of Caspian sea, approximately OTL Western Kazakhstan. Them submit to Dzungars or will be conquered.
3. Keep Russian and Dzungars allied. I think Russia is no interest in fighting strong Dzungars, as most of attention will be expanding in Europe and getting warm port on Baltics and Black Sea.
4. Make Dzungars modernize with help of Europeans like Johan Gustaf Renat

I agree there is possibility that Russians would swallow most of Dzungaria post Napoleon War.
 
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