AHC: Maximum number of surviving OTL Boer and Griqua Republics

[Rush Tarquin]

The challenge: have as many of the OTL Griqua and Boer republics survive as you can. They must be independent states and the PODs/TLs must be plausible, so you can dispute each other's attempts and propose a more plausible POD/TL.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Lists of the OTL states at the bottom of the page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boer_Republics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griqua_people

 

[Iori]

The max I think would be five; Oranje Free State, Transvaal, a smaller Boer state and two Griqua states.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

The max I think would be five; Oranje Free State, Transvaal, a smaller Boer state and two Griqua states.

That was my estimation, but my knowledge of South Africa is severely lacking.

The Klein Vrystaat and ('the United States of') Stellaland both folded into Transvaal, and, given their tiny size, I assume they would do the same in most conceivable situations.

One thing I wonder about is if the survival of the Natalia Republic would preclude the other states through butterflies.

Also why did the Orange Free State remain separate from Transvaal OTL?

 

[Iori]

Also why did the Orange Free State remain separate from Transvaal OTL?

That's a very good question, I assume it was a mixture of things including geopolitics, economics and a nascent national identity.

 

[Mr. Magi]

One thing I wonder about is if the survival of the Natalia Republic would preclude the other states through butterflies.

Also why did the Orange Free State remain separate from Transvaal OTL?

Natalia's likely toast though. The UK pretty much refused to believe they were independent, and really didn't want the Boers to have a port. Natalia was also very poorly run apparently.

As for why the two were seperate, well it's partially due to geography, and mostly due to the Boers being a fractious lot. This had a bad habit of making them not really work together. The one time they ever united, they split not long after.

As for the Griquas, they had issues in competing against the Boers and the UK. They also apparently had a habit of selling land and being somewhat nomadic too, which doesn't help with state building.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I suspect that, realistically, the maximum number may be 0. I doubt the Brits would allow them to survive long term.

 

[B_Munro]

I suspect that, realistically, the maximum number may be 0. I doubt the Brits would allow them to survive long term.

Swaziland and Lesotho weren't absorbed into South Africa...

Bruce

 

[Alex Richards]

Swaziland and Lesotho weren't absorbed into South Africa...

Bruce

Swaziland and Lesotho were ruled by native monarchs who, after initial resistance, cleaved to British demands for influence and became protectorates. The Boer and Griqa states meanwhile were unlikely to come to such an agreement.

 

[SPJ]

Swaziland and Lesotho were ruled by native monarchs who, after initial resistance, cleaved to British demands for influence and became protectorates. The Boer and Griqa states meanwhile were unlikely to come to such an agreement.

Why would it be unlikely?

 

[Alex Richards]

Why would it be unlikely?

Because the entire raisôn d'etre for the existence of the Boer and Griqa States was that they didn't want to be under the British Crown, could not be perusaded to be so and so were forced inland by the British because they wanted to sequre the coast of Natal.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

I suspect that, realistically, the maximum number may be 0. I doubt the Brits would allow them to survive long term.

My understanding was that the London in the 1850s had a strategy to incorporate the Boer states into a confederation with the Cape Colony whereas the Cape Colony wanted to annex them outright.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

My understanding was that the London in the 1850s had a strategy to incorporate the Boer states into a confederation with the Cape Colony whereas the Cape Colony wanted to annex them outright.

Ok, but if they are confederated, are they 'independent'? Yes i could see them surviving as distinct states, but within the Empire.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Ok, but if they are confederated, are they 'independent'? Yes i could see them surviving as distinct states, but within the Empire.

Well, the strategy could fail (likely, for the reasons Alex Richards stated above), but then London would probably just resort to annexation into the Cape Colony, which could well be what happened behind not so closed doors OTL.

Or the confederation could fail and split up at a later date.