Fearless Leader
Donor
One thought I had recently was slightly different Japanese planning regarding their seizure of the Philippines.
In OTL they saw the importance of the Bataan peninsula, but their desire to take Manila before the end of 1941 led them to ignore it until it was too late. Despite MacArthur's bungling, a good chunk of the American and Philippine forces were able to make it to Bataan and resist far longer than they would have been able to otherwise.
The Japanese invasion could have very easily gone slightly differently and prioritized taking Bataan over Manila. This likely wouldn't change Manila being declared an open city, and likely would greatly curtail American resistance on Luzon and the rest of the Philippines by extension. Assuming American indecisiveness when the Japanese take Bataan in December 1941, I'd wager that by January 1941 the Japanese would be able to essentially accomplish what they did in OTL by May 1942.
This would massively improve Japanese logistics and free up several divisions that were tied down in OTL facing the Americans holding out in the Philippines. The obvious beneficiary here is the SWPA. Perhaps with the additional forces available, the Japanese opt to launch an overland campaign to take Port Moresby in March 1942 and succeed? The Japanese may well get closer to isolating Australia than they did in OTL.
However I don't think any POD in 1941 gives the Japanese enough strength to take New Caledonia. In TTL this likely becomes an even more lopsided version of the Guadalcanal campaign and crushes the Japanese military, before an American central pacific drive begins the process of knocking them out of the war.
In OTL they saw the importance of the Bataan peninsula, but their desire to take Manila before the end of 1941 led them to ignore it until it was too late. Despite MacArthur's bungling, a good chunk of the American and Philippine forces were able to make it to Bataan and resist far longer than they would have been able to otherwise.
The Japanese invasion could have very easily gone slightly differently and prioritized taking Bataan over Manila. This likely wouldn't change Manila being declared an open city, and likely would greatly curtail American resistance on Luzon and the rest of the Philippines by extension. Assuming American indecisiveness when the Japanese take Bataan in December 1941, I'd wager that by January 1941 the Japanese would be able to essentially accomplish what they did in OTL by May 1942.
This would massively improve Japanese logistics and free up several divisions that were tied down in OTL facing the Americans holding out in the Philippines. The obvious beneficiary here is the SWPA. Perhaps with the additional forces available, the Japanese opt to launch an overland campaign to take Port Moresby in March 1942 and succeed? The Japanese may well get closer to isolating Australia than they did in OTL.
However I don't think any POD in 1941 gives the Japanese enough strength to take New Caledonia. In TTL this likely becomes an even more lopsided version of the Guadalcanal campaign and crushes the Japanese military, before an American central pacific drive begins the process of knocking them out of the war.