AHC: Maximize Italian occupied territory WAllies take over from post-surrender Italy

raharris1973

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Your challenge is, with a PoD after October 1, 1942,maximize Italian occupied territory WAllies take over from post-surrender Italy. Divergences can only come from WAllied or Italian initiatives, not German or Soviet initiatives.

To review the Italian occupation spheres from October 1942 we have Italy itself, a little bit of Libya, a majority of Greece, Albania and coastal Yugoslavia (administered as an enlarged Albania, Montenegro and a Croatian state)

By the time of OTL Italy's capitulation Libya and Sicily had been conquered by the WAllies. Within 6-8 weeks or so of Italy's capitulation, Italy from Naples and Salerno, Naples and points south was occupied by the WAllies, but the majority of Italian controlled territory at capitulation, Italy north of tSaerno and Naples and all Italian territories in Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece and the Aegean were occupied by the Germans (and Bulgarians, for a little slice).
 
Mussolini whips up the Italian people into a patriotic frenzy (well, the ones that can be, anyway), avoids all assassination and coup attempts, and never surrenders, instead making a last stand somewhere in the Italian Alps. Italy never surrenders formally and has to be fully occupied. I win by default.;)
 

raharris1973

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well okay, we've got an early victory.:D

doesn't mean we can't discuss other ways to work at this-
 
I think most of this really depends on the Italians, not the Allies. After Mussolini fell from office and Rome sought to end the war, they really needed to prepare for a German occupation and figure out how to delay them until the Allies could move in.

When Italy announced it had signed the armistice with the Allies, instructions should have been sent to all Italian units (in Italy at least) to secure the borders and resist any German attempt to occupy the country. It should also have instructed any German units within Italy that they could return Germany intact if they did not cause any problems.

Of course, there would be problems and a not inconsiderable amount of Italians would side with the Germans. However, the German plans for Operation Achse was accomplished far too easily.

If the Germans had to fight to control Italy and disarm the Italian Army, they wouldn't be able to control a lot of it before the Allies came in. Rather than risk being cut off, the Germans would need to withdraw from Salerno. The Allies should have been able to occupy Italy south of the Gothic Line before end of 1943. That would have enabled them to break out onto the Padanian plain in summer 1944 and reach Austria, Yugoslavia, and Hungary before 1945 begins.

It was irresponsible of the Badoglio government to not make plans to handle the inevitable and predictable German response to the Italian armistice.
 

raharris1973

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I think most of this really depends on the Italians, not the Allies. After Mussolini fell from office and Rome sought to end the war, they really needed to prepare for a German occupation and figure out how to delay them until the Allies could move in.

good point-

When Italy announced it had signed the armistice with the Allies, instructions should have been sent to all Italian units (in Italy at least) to secure the borders and resist any German attempt to occupy the country. It should also have instructed any German units within Italy that they could return Germany intact if they did not cause any problems.

Could the Italians have held out for Allied arrival in any other areas like the Dodecanese, Greece, Albania, occupied Yugoslavia, or just in their own homeland?

Of course, there would be problems and a not inconsiderable amount of Italians would side with the Germans. However, the German plans for Operation Achse was accomplished far too easily.

If the Germans had to fight to control Italy and disarm the Italian Army, they wouldn't be able to control a lot of it before the Allies came in. Rather than risk being cut off, the Germans would need to withdraw from Salerno. The Allies should have been able to occupy Italy south of the Gothic Line before end of 1943. That would have enabled them to break out onto the Padanian plain in summer 1944 and reach Austria, Yugoslavia, and Hungary before 1945 begins.

It was irresponsible of the Badoglio government to not make plans to handle the inevitable and predictable German response to the Italian armistice.

Well where would we place Badoglio's (in)action in handling the surrender on the spectrum of WWII era Italian (in)competence? Was it par for the course with their average military performance, or even worse?

One wonders if an Italian military able to make all the right moves in handling surrender would have been militarily formidable enough to put off surrender altogether for a bit longer.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Southern France and Corsica as well, true?

Your challenge is, with a PoD after October 1, 1942,maximize Italian occupied territory WAllies take over from post-surrender Italy. Divergences can only come from WAllied or Italian initiatives, not German or Soviet initiatives.

To review the Italian occupation spheres from October 1942 we have Italy itself, a little bit of Libya, a majority of Greece, Albania and coastal Yugoslavia (administered as an enlarged Albania, Montenegro and a Croatian state)

By the time of OTL Italy's capitulation Libya and Sicily had been conquered by the WAllies. Within 6-8 weeks or so of Italy's capitulation, Italy from Naples and Salerno, Naples and points south was occupied by the WAllies, but the majority of Italian controlled territory at capitulation, Italy north of tSaerno and Naples and all Italian territories in Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece and the Aegean were occupied by the Germans (and Bulgarians, for a little slice).

Joint occupation of Southern France and Corsica as well, true?

Best,
 

raharris1973

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joint occupation of Southern France and Corsica as well, true?

yes. good point. I forgot to mention them, probably because I saw no way for them to avoid instant German occupation.
 
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