With a POD no earlier than 1950, have Marcos not be the President of the Philippines in '66. No assassinations - that would make it too easy...
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AHC: Marcos loses, 1965
- Thread starter Francisco Cojuanco
- Start date
The US Army documents exposing his false guerrilla record and showing him to be a collaborator and then switching when the tide turned would be sealed, so forget that. Another prospect would be a better economy- the economy was sluggish, corruption at the lower levels was rampant, and many felt that Macapagal had moved too far too fast on (badly needed then and now) privatization among other things. It was also an incredibly nasty campaign- somewhat like 1986 with Marcos' gratuitously sexist comments about Cory.
Someone leaks the truth about Marcos' military campaign to the public shortly before the 1965 elections. Diosdado Macapagal and other candidates use this to their advantage by discrediting Marcos, in addition to accusations of fraud and corruption. He loses the election by a small margin, but is immensely disgraced in the eyes of the electorate.
mdc: read my comments above. Those records were sealed in Pentagon archives until after Ferdie left Malacanang.
Pentagon clerks aren't incorruptible, though... there wouldn't be too much NSec implications if so - you're talking about two anticommunists after all.
FC: That's not something Macapagal would do. It's something his daughter, or Ferdie, would do.
I never said old Addie had to be the one to do it... knowing the Philippine media, couldn't some pissed off hack pull off the same thing?
LBJ did not know of anything relating to that. All the American presidents except Carter liked Marcos, as did most of the senior politicos familiar with Asia. The relationship is best described as "GMA on steroids".
With Marcos loses in 1965, Philippines might be in a better shape right now. I would see Jovito Salonga, Danding Cojuangco or Serging Osmena to run in 1969.
I would see more prominent politicians in the Philippines right now to be butterflied away if Marcos loses in 1965. Cory Aquino will remain a housewife. Fidel Ramos will retire in 1984 from military. Joseph Estrada will remain an actor. Gloria Arroyo will be just a private economist and will not pursue politics. Noynoy Aquino will be just an ordinary citizen as a corporate manager of Nike in the Philippines.
I would see more prominent politicians in the Philippines right now to be butterflied away if Marcos loses in 1965. Cory Aquino will remain a housewife. Fidel Ramos will retire in 1984 from military. Joseph Estrada will remain an actor. Gloria Arroyo will be just a private economist and will not pursue politics. Noynoy Aquino will be just an ordinary citizen as a corporate manager of Nike in the Philippines.
Chris Oakley
Banned
Marcos could contract a fatal disease and die before the '65 elections are held. Given how easy it is for deadly bacteria to breed in tropical countries, this isn't as far-fetched a scenario as you might think.
Why exactly would GMA, the scion of the country's premier political dynasty, not enter politics? Granted, without a female predecessor it would be harder to reach Malacanang, but she has what it takes and a hell of a lot more.
Marcos at this time was a member of the elite. Him suffering a tropical disease in Manila is unlikely, given how he has more-than-adequate santitation, and how Manila generally was less decaying than it was in the 80's.
You'd need to fix the economy, for one thing. Also: perhaps pissed-off Nacionalistas stay home because Marcos ran on their ticket out of convenience and Macapagal getting cold feet on their deal (though ideologically Ferdie's much more Nat than Lib IMO), and especially PO-ed Libs voted in huge numbers to teach him a lesson? Also, Macapagal responds forcefully to Ferdie's negative attacks instead of mouthing platitudes.