AHC: Mao dies circa 1962-66

How can Mao die after the Great Leap Forward ends (1962) but before the Cultural Revolution begins (1966)? While I imagine the Chairman Liu Shaoqi would succeed Mao, so what would his rule be like?
 

RousseauX

Donor
Depending on which year in that time frame. Let's assume 1962-63, then you get fairly generic Khrushchev era Communist regime. With a planned economy that will run relatively well until it exhausts the capacities of exogenous growth that the planned economy can mobilize.

Now there are two possibilities on the long term

1) Without the cultural revolution though, transition to post-1979 Chinese economy will be somewhat harder, for the simple reason that the planned economy will be working a lot better when OTL some of the key transition at the beginning were motivated at the bottom by peasants literally on the verge of starvation under the old commune system. China's industrial transformation ends up starting a few years to a decade late.

2) Transition begins more or less immediately after Mao's death. The economy at the time was ran by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping. With the disaster of the great leap forward fresh in everyone's mind the agricultural sector reverts back to something like the household responsibility system very quickly. However, the mid 60s isn't 1979 when state Socialism in the industrial sector was much more obviously a failure. Nor are you going to see the sort of boom in agricultural production nearly as much as post-1979 OTL simply because a lot of the technology (the Chinese green revolution) is still 15-20 years away. But Deng and Liu recognizes how behind China is compared to the west and adopts "free market" policies a decade earlier at the end of the 60s. Assuming things go more or less on track, China today might be much more democratic and have higher GDP/per capita.
 
Since I am thinking about the "how" myself -- I initially thought illness would be the best killer, but it seems Mao's health was pretty good until the final years. I'm thinking now that the leader's sexual activity might be the best opening -- either to catch something incurable even for his standard of medical care, or (and this is weirdly looking most likely) for Mao to be assassinated.

2) Transition begins more or less immediately after Mao's death. The economy at the time was ran by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping. With the disaster of the great leap forward fresh in everyone's mind the agricultural sector reverts back to something like the household responsibility system very quickly... Deng and Liu recognizes how behind China is compared to the west and adopts "free market" policies a decade earlier at the end of the 60s.

If anyone could take China on that path around this time, it would be Shaoqi and Deng.
 
Even if Mao Zedong passed away circa 1964, you still have some pretty strong hardline factions led by Lin Biao, who would be allied with the infamous Gang of Four: Jiang Qing, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, and Wang Hongwen. As such, Cultural Revolution would still have happened, but its effects would be vastly shorter, since Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaopeng, and Liu Shaoqi would have a created strong faction to put the Gang of Four out of business a lot sooner.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Even if Mao Zedong passed away circa 1964, you still have some pretty strong hardline factions led by Lin Biao, who would be allied with the infamous Gang of Four: Jiang Qing, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, and Wang Hongwen. As such, Cultural Revolution would still have happened, but its effects would be vastly shorter, since Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaopeng, and Liu Shaoqi would have a created strong faction to put the Gang of Four out of business a lot sooner.

How far could the Cultural Revolution actually go, though, with a real power struggle going on behind the scenes?
It won't

The cultural revolution was Mao's project through and through, Jiang Qing and the gang of four rode to power on its coattails, while Lin Biao was Mao's protege. You might see some sort of social unrest but nothing like the officially sanctioned anarchy which went on.
 
Right, so no Cultural Revolution period. Then before we get to the profound effects of this and of a Shaoqin premiership, are we on board for death by sex as a PoD?
 
Possibility of a Zhou En Lai lead bend towards "humanist socialism" ala 56 / 68 in Europe? Calling on a China expert. I understand that Zhou was as party minded as Lukacs, but as times changed, so too did Lukacs.

yours,
Sam R.
 

RousseauX

Donor
A pretty likely possibility is a triumvirate of Zhou Enlai, liu Shoaqi and Deng Xiaoping running the country. All three are highly competent statesmen (ok the first and the last at least) and without Mao, Lin Biao could be contained by playing army politics, there were plenty of officers who did not share Lin's viewpoints. They might even be able to get someone like Peng Dehuai back in charge of the army.

Also another note: the CCP leadership of TTL will be a lot less nervous about change and popular movements without the experience of the cultural revolution, and might be alot more willing to give up power ala Hungary or Poland or Czechslovkian parties when the equivalent of 1989 rolls around.
 
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Since I am thinking about the "how" myself -- .... I'm thinking now that the leader's sexual activity might be the best opening -- either to catch something incurable even for his standard of medical care, or (and this is weirdly looking most likely) for Mao to be assassinated.

By one of those underage girls he liked, iis that what you mean? Or by an outraged father?
 
A pretty likely possibility is a triumvirate of Zhou Enlai, liu Shoaqi and Deng Xiaoping running the country. All three are highly competent statesmen (ok the first and the last at least) and without Mao, Lin Biao could be contained by playing army politics, there were plenty of officers who did not share Lin's viewpoints. They might even be able to get someone like Peng Dehuai back in charge of the army.

Also another note: the CCP leadership of TTL will be a lot less nervous about change and popular movements without the experience of the cultural revolution, and might be alot more willing to give up power ala Hungary or Poland or Czechslovkian parties when the equivalent of 1989 rolls around.

I take it you mean the spirit of 56 or 68 there. From what I've heard on the ground, the causes of 1989 were very much the reproletarianisation or old industries under a more aggressive capitalism, and the social relegation of the intellectuals in terms of both status and income simultaneously. You can see this in the cross social movements liking urban intellectuals and workers, and in the formation of workers councils, etc.

The problem would be that the cultural revolution did resolve a great deal of the outstanding social unrest from the failures of the existing soviet economy. Those unrests are going to come forward, and fast, unless the Triumvirate can very rapidly boot industrial growth combined with a greater sense of freedom in working life. Doesn't have to be substantial, just has to be the sense.

China is unlikely to experience a 1989 as we know it if there's either a successful or crushed equivalent of 56 or 68 in the mid 1960s.

yours,
Sam R.
 
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