AHC: Make the Sinai Peninsula and Independent Country

With a pod of 1900, make the Sinai Peninsula an independent country by 1990 at the latest. Personally, I think the best bet is for the British to rule the Suez Canal and Sinai Peninsula as a separate territory from the rest of Egypt, and possibly even encourage Zionists to move there and then after World War Two, the territory goes to Israel.

What are your thoughts. It doesn't have to be the above way, that was just my suggestion.
 
If the Zionists are there then it's almost certainly going to wind up in Israel unless there's enough Arab resistance to force another solution, in which case it'll probably go to Egypt since they'll be the main backer in which case we have OTL.

Early Egyptian independence is a good POD since the British aren't going to want to part with Suez and Sinai adds another buffer. Maybe a more bankrupt British Empire after the Great War--or defeated--gives Egypt independence but is allowed to keep Sinai and Suez. Ottoman Empire falls apart as OTL. Sinai develops a separate identity from the rest of the Arab World and eventually is decolonized and becomes its own country. Foreign influence and aid keeps pan-Arabists from coming to power so it stays separate. TTL would not have the Arab-Israeli Conflict which simplifies things.

The other scenario is maybe Sinai and Egypt are separate in the era of colonialism and then as you said, Zionists move in there and form a powerful bloc but the Arabs are divided enough that only a minority feels like joining Egypt. So there's a settlement negotiated maybe similar to Lebanon where Sinai remains its own country and is forbidden from joining Israel or Egypt and some system is set up to deal with relations between the communities so they can form a functional government.

I don't know how stable it would be since well, Arab-Israeli conflicts and Sinai is in the way. It will absorb a huge amount of Palestinian refugees who will not be happy with the amount of Zionists or their influence in Sinai. There's an interesting precedent for peace in this state that could apply to Israel/Palestine (for a one-state solution).

I imagine it would be a republic but maybe the Hashemites provide a ruler? Or even the royal family of Egypt as a consolation for splitting Sinai from Egypt? Although this wouldn't work in a scenario where Zionism is a powerful force in this Sinai state.
 
I have discussed this topic for 20 years or more with others and find the similarities with the posts above to be interesting. I believe the best (and probably only) time for Great Britain to acquire the Suez is at the Treaty of Sevres signed on 10 August 1920.

Some legal background is important to understand. The British occupation of Egypt in 1882 was never formalized, and the Pasha of Egypt remained legally a subject of the Sultan. The British declaration of war on the Ottoman Empire on 2 November 1914 forced a change in the status of the Pasha (and therefore the province of Egypt.) Egypt was declared a British Protectorate, and King George V replaced Sultan Mehmed V as the Pasha’s sovereign. Egypt is not an independent country and her boundaries are therefore not internationally recognized.

The Treaty of Sevres gives an opportunity for Britain to permanently secure her military and commercial interests in the Suez. The entire Sinai Peninsula and a zone 20 miles west of the Suez Canal is severed to form a new Suez Protectorate. Approximately one-quarter of the 20 mile zone is under the waters of the Nile Delta, and the remainder is open desert with few inhabitants. 20 miles is sufficient from the standards of 1920 to protect the Canal from attack.

The severance of the Suez Protectorate would be highly unpopular in Egypt, but the timing of August 1920 is excellent from the British point of view. The Wafd Independence Movement launched an open rebellion in March-April 1919 which was crushed by the some 400,000 British Commonwealth troops awaiting demobilization and transport home. Virtually all Egyptian nationalists were in British jails or exile. The remaining Egyptian leadership was polarized and ineffective. The British, especially Field Marshal Edmund Allenby who was serving as High Commissioner in Egypt were aware the 400,000 troops had now gone home, and any future revolt would strain resources. Thus preparations for unilateral grant of Egyptian independence on 28 February 1922 were well underway. One major influence on FM Allenby’s actions was his belief that with modern communications, Cairo had lost much of its importance to Great Britain.

It was quite possible to tie Egyptian independence and the Suez Protectorate into the final draft of the Treaty of Sevres. The Egyptians have a choice between rejecting both, or accepting an independence that is unexpected. In the power vacuum existing in Egypt in the summer of 1920, I believe Pasha Fuad would accept independence and elevation to the status of king. Acceptance via the Treaty of Sevres also gives the Egyptians the legal right to force the withdrawal of British forces from Egypt. This is quite acceptable, the British garrison of three brigades – Cairo Cavalry, Cairo Infantry and Canal infantry is just adequate to protect the Suez. The floating drydocks and stores at Alexandria can be moved to Port Said or Haifa.

The Suez Canal Concession will be terminated, although the revenues due to the Pasha from the Suez Canal Company will continue. Eventually, King Fuad can legally force a dissolution of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium in the Sudan, acquiring the Arab West and North and leaving the British with the Black African East and South.

Is the Suez Protectorate viable? The 1927 Encyclopedia Britannica set that got my father through college seems to indicate the answer is yes. The population of the Suez Protectorate area excluding nomadic Bedouins is estimated at about 88,000 in 1920. About 15% is European with the nationalities represented in ranking as Greek, Cypriot, French, British, Maltese and Italian. The largest employers of Europeans are the Suez Canal Company and the Egyptian Protectorate. It appears that British military personnel were not included, but after the withdrawal from Egypt would number about 9,000 Army, 800 RN and 500 RAF personnel, with few dependents outside of officers, senior NCOs and senior Other Ranks/Ratings. This is my estimate only.
The population is distributed as follows: Port Said – 52,600, the main commercial hub and center of the Suez Canal Company. Considerable light industry geared to support of canal shipping. A ferry serves rail connections on both sides of the canal.
Ismailia – 15,918, terminus of the Nile Canal providing fresh water to the entire protectorate and irrigation to the largest agricultural zone. (Kind of an exact count for an estimate.)
Suez (including Port Tewfik and Port Ibrahim) – 9,091, southern terminus of the Canal with a small drydock at Port Tewfik. Port Said on a much smaller scale.
El Arish – 4,632, commercial center with a seasonal agricultural output; site of a major rail repair center built by the British Army in 1917, and a major RAF station since 1916.
Kantara – 1,562, major base for the Canal Infantry Bde.
Abu Suweir – 1,530, site of the largest RAF base in the Protectorate, built in 1917.
El Kubri – 725; Taba – 450; El Rumania – 385; El Tor – 210 (site of a quarantine station); Sharm-el-Sheik – 182, site of a RN Observation post; Nuweiba – 170; El Kuntilla – 150 (border post); El Quseima – 150 (border post and abandoned rail terminus); Nabq – 150 fishing port; El Thamad – 120.
One additional site, Nakhl is occasionally inhabited for mining iron, copper and zinc when market shortages make it profitable.
Other places of note: Fayid is established as an RAF base in April 1921 and by 1930 had a population of 980. Oil was discovered in 1922 near Abu Durba which had an estimated population of 750 in 1930. Port Fuad opposite Port Said was established in December 1928 and in 1930 had an estimated population of 1500.
Manganese and iron mining began in scale at Abu Zenima in 1932.

What does the future of the Suez Protectorate hold? I doubt the Arab population would increase much, and may well decline. Those employed by the Pasha would be replaced by British Commonwealth nationals. Others may find attractive opportunities in an independent Egypt, and manual laborers would be sought from the British Commonwealth. Most mechanics and technicians for the expanding automobile and aviation fields will also come from Great Britain. As with South Africa, Kenya and Uganda, small business and craftsmen from India will arrive and likely displace some Egyptians. A public school system will be established, bringing their staff primarily from the Caucasian Commonwealth. Graduates will assimilate into British identity as opposed to their Greek, Cypriot, French or Maltese parents. British expatriates will filter in, former military, due to low cost of living, etc.

For the first 15 years the Suez Protectorate is probably fairly stagnant, as is most of the Empire. This is one of the few parts of the world not affected by the Great Depression. The Italian invasion of Ethiopia will bring considerable modernization and expansion of the Army and RAF garrisons. The naval facilities will also be expanded and improved. Local industry will also expand, both to support the garrison but also in commercial sectors.

The Second World War is an open question. If Mussolini did invade Egypt, then she is forced into the war as an active ally, and not as an occupied neutral. If he does not, then British, Australian New Zealand and Indian troops will focus on an early conquest of Italian East Africa. This may force Mussolini’s hand. An invasion of Egypt is his only chance of rescuing his isolated colonies on the Red Sea. If Italy respects Egyptian neutrality then the British will have a tough time going on the offensive in the Eastern Mediterranean.

By the 1950s, the Suez Protectorate will be solidly British in popular sentiment and see little value in independence. In effect it has become a larger Gibraltar. The buffer zone of the Suez Protectorate can only be considered an advantage for the Israelis in 1947-49.
 
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I have discussed this topic for 20 years or more with others and find the similarities with the posts above to be interesting. I believe the best (and probably only) time for Great Britain to acquire the Suez is at the Treaty of Sevres signed on 10 August 1920.

Some legal background is important to understand. The British occupation of Egypt in 1882 was never formalized, and the Pasha of Egypt remained legally a subject of the Sultan. The British declaration of war on the Ottoman Empire on 2 November 1914 forced a change in the status of the Pasha (and therefore the province of Egypt.) Egypt was declared a British Protectorate, and King George V replaced Sultan Mehmed V as the Pasha’s sovereign. Egypt is not an independent country and her boundaries are therefore not internationally recognized.

The Treaty of Sevres gives an opportunity for Britain to permanently secure her military and commercial interests in the Suez. The entire Sinai Peninsula and a zone 20 miles west of the Suez Canal is severed to form a new Suez Protectorate. Approximately one-quarter of the 20 mile zone is under the waters of the Nile Delta, and the remainder is open desert with few inhabitants. 20 miles is sufficient from the standards of 1920 to protect the Canal from attack.

The severance of the Suez Protectorate would be highly unpopular in Egypt, but the timing of August 1920 is excellent from the British point of view. The Wafd Independence Movement launched an open rebellion in March-April 1919 which was crushed by the some 400,000 British Commonwealth troops awaiting demobilization and transport home. Virtually all Egyptian nationalists were in British jails or exile. The remaining Egyptian leadership was polarized and ineffective. The British, especially Field Marshal Edmund Allenby who was serving as High Commissioner in Egypt were aware the 400,000 troops had now gone home, and any future revolt would strain resources. Thus preparations for unilateral grant of Egyptian independence on 28 February 1922 were well underway. One major influence on FM Allenby’s actions was his belief that with modern communications, Cairo had lost much of its importance to Great Britain.

It was quite possible to tie Egyptian independence and the Suez Protectorate into the final draft of the Treaty of Sevres. The Egyptians have a choice between rejecting both, or accepting an independence that is unexpected. In the power vacuum existing in Egypt in the summer of 1920, I believe Pasha Fuad would accept independence and elevation to the status of king. Acceptance via the Treaty of Sevres also gives the Egyptians the legal right to force the withdrawal of British forces from Egypt. This is quite acceptable, the British garrison of three brigades – Cairo Cavalry, Cairo Infantry and Canal infantry is just adequate to protect the Suez. The floating drydocks and stores at Alexandria can be moved to Port Said or Haifa.

The Suez Canal Concession will be terminated, although the revenues due to the Pasha from the Suez Canal Company will continue. Eventually, King Fuad can legally force a dissolution of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium in the Sudan, acquiring the Arab West and North and leaving the British with the Black African East and South.

Is the Suez Protectorate viable? The 1927 Encyclopedia Britannica set that got my father through college seems to indicate the answer is yes. The population of the Suez Protectorate area excluding nomadic Bedouins is estimated at about 88,000 in 1920. About 15% is European with the nationalities represented in ranking as Greek, Cypriot, French, British, Maltese and Italian. The largest employers of Europeans are the Suez Canal Company and the Egyptian Protectorate. It appears that British military personnel were not included, but after the withdrawal from Egypt would number about 9,000 Army, 800 RN and 500 RAF personnel, with few dependents outside of officers, senior NCOs and senior Other Ranks/Ratings. This is my estimate only.
The population is distributed as follows: Port Said – 52,600, the main commercial hub and center of the Suez Canal Company. Considerable light industry geared to support of canal shipping. A ferry serves rail connections on both sides of the canal.
Ismailia – 15,918, terminus of the Nile Canal providing fresh water to the entire protectorate and irrigation to the largest agricultural zone. (Kind of an exact count for an estimate.)
Suez (including Port Tewfik and Port Ibrahim) – 9,091, southern terminus of the Canal with a small drydock at Port Tewfik. Port Said on a much smaller scale.
El Arish – 4,632, commercial center with a seasonal agricultural output; site of a major rail repair center built by the British Army in 1917, and a major RAF station since 1916.
Kantara – 1,562, major base for the Canal Infantry Bde.
Abu Suweir – 1,530, site of the largest RAF base in the Protectorate, built in 1917.
El Kubri – 725; Taba – 450; El Rumania – 385; El Tor – 210 (site of a quarantine station); Sharm-el-Sheik – 182, site of a RN Observation post; Nuweiba – 170; El Kuntilla – 150 (border post); El Quseima – 150 (border post and abandoned rail terminus); Nabq – 150 fishing port; El Thamad – 120.
One additional site, Nakhl is occasionally inhabited for mining iron, copper and zinc when market shortages make it profitable.
Other places of note: Fayid is established as an RAF base in April 1921 and by 1930 had a population of 980. Oil was discovered in 1922 near Abu Durba which had an estimated population of 750 in 1930. Port Fuad opposite Port Said was established in December 1928 and in 1930 had an estimated population of 1500.
Manganese and iron mining began in scale at Abu Zenima in 1932.

What does the future of the Suez Protectorate hold? I doubt the Arab population would increase much, and may well decline. Those employed by the Pasha would be replaced by British Commonwealth nationals. Others may find attractive opportunities in an independent Egypt, and manual laborers would be sought from the British Commonwealth. Most mechanics and technicians for the expanding automobile and aviation fields will also come from Great Britain. As with South Africa, Kenya and Uganda, small business and craftsmen from India will arrive and likely displace some Egyptians. A public school system will be established, bringing their staff primarily from the Caucasian Commonwealth. Graduates will assimilate into British identity as opposed to their Greek, Cypriot, French or Maltese parents. British expatriates will filter in, former military, due to low cost of living, etc.

For the first 15 years the Suez Protectorate is probably fairly stagnant, as is most of the Empire. This is one of the few parts of the world not affected by the Great Depression. The Italian invasion of Ethiopia will bring considerable modernization and expansion of the Army and RAF garrisons. The naval facilities will also be expanded and improved. Local industry will also expand, both to support the garrison but also in commercial sectors.

The Second World War is an open question. If Mussolini did invade Egypt, then she is forced into the war as an active ally, and not as an occupied neutral. If he does not, then British, Australian New Zealand and Indian troops will focus on an early conquest of Italian East Africa. This may force Mussolini’s hand. An invasion of Egypt is his only chance of rescuing his isolated colonies on the Red Sea. If Italy respects Egyptian neutrality then the British will have a tough time going on the offensive in the Eastern Mediterranean.

By the 1950s, the Suez Protectorate will be solidly British in popular sentiment and see little value in independence. In effect it has become a larger Gibraltar. The buffer zone of the Suez Protectorate can only be considered an advantage for the Israelis in 1947-49.

Great reply! How does the Gaza Strip affect the Sinai?
 
The Gaza Strip was part of the Ottoman subprovince of Jerusalem and then part of the League of Nations Mandate of Palestine after 1920. It has no legal connection to the Sinai. The open question is what happens to Gaza during the Israeli Wars of Independence in 1947-9. Without the Egyptian Army to hold it, I doubt Gaza will avoid annexation by Israel. However, since Gaza Arab refugees will not find a warm sanctuary in the Suez, it is possible the Israelis will allow an Arab mini-state to exist in the Gaza Strip to avoid having them become Israeli citizens. It could go perhaps in another direction, such as a UN Trusteeship. So I see it a bit in reverse - how does the Suez Protectorate affect the Gaza Strip? Your thoughts?

On another note, I don't see very many Jewish immigrants choosing the Suez over Palestine between 1920 and 1947; except perhaps as a temporary way station.
 
One Correction - and I pooched this rather badly. Legally the Suez would have to become a Crown Colony. A Protectorate has its basis in a nation-state that is being protected by a greater power. My hypothetical Suez created at Sevres would have no original nation-state identity. Crown Colony status also implies eventual local self-government as I alluded to in education. My apologies.
 

Deleted member 94680

Legally the Suez would have to become a Crown Colony. A Protectorate has its basis in a nation-state that is being protected by a greater power.
Not really in regards to the British Empire. A Protectorate is a colony that London decides to call a Protectorate for propagandistic reasons - often with a strong regional identity and as such a local ruler is in place. I don’t think many of the historical Protectorates of the Empire aligned with nation states that existed before the British presence.
 
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