With a POD in 1900 or later, make Russia survive to the modern day as an empire. The emperor must still be in power, but Russia can be a democracy like the rest of the European nations with monarchs.
You can get rid of Russian Tsar Nicholas II by having him die in 1900 and then butterfly away both World Wars. Indeed, that might do the trick here.
Is Russia better off avoiding the Russo-Japanese War and WWI, or better off winning them even if it means risking putting off various reforms?First step is remove Nicholas II quickly, ratherly before Alexandra begin expect Alexei.
Removal of NII is very needful but at least WW1 seems being pretty unavoidable. avoiding of Russo-Japanese War might be possible. But it is possible that Russia would be on better shape during Great War.
Is Russia better off avoiding the Russo-Japanese War and WWI, or better off winning them even if it means risking putting off various reforms?
IMO, Russia getting crazy lucky winning four or five wars relatively quickly against Japan, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Britain, China, and Persia by 1925 and becoming a Super Power in said period is their best bet. National pride as a Super Power (that achieves a far greater population than OTL, like 800 million) and the threat of outsiders holds its European people's together. Western Europe and Japan quickly from an alliance to oppose them (which the US later joins and leads), who promote "degeneracy" and anti-Christian progressive values, China rapidly rises to upper tier Great Power status in the late 20th/early 21st century and claim various lands Russia takes from them ITT in the early 21st century, and the Islamic World hates Russia for its historic treatment of Muslims (and commit various acts of terror against Russia). The perception in a moderately developed (GDP per capita PPP 35,000) corrupt Russian Autocratic society is that they need a strong man to protect them and their empire from threats and hold everything together.
The resistance to reforms in Russian Empire was widespread, and inept Emperor Nicholas II was the carrier of typical attitudes. Therefore, recipe to save Russian Empire can be only of sort "the worse mean better". I propose more shameful defeat in Russo-Japanese war followed by successful revolution of 1905 reducing Emperor to the figurehead. New regime may be more in position to perform land reforms and survive WWI.With a POD in 1900 or later, make Russia survive to the modern day as an empire. The emperor must still be in power, but Russia can be a democracy like the rest of the European nations with monarchs.