AHC: Make the Russian Empire Survive

With a POD in 1900 or later, make Russia survive to the modern day as an empire. The emperor must still be in power, but Russia can be a democracy like the rest of the European nations with monarchs.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
You can get rid of Russian Tsar Nicholas II by having him die in 1900 and then butterfly away both World Wars. Indeed, that might do the trick here.
 
Maybe the Tsar reads Durnovo's memorandum:

"...But in the event of defeat, the possibility of which in a struggle with a foe like Germany cannot be overlooked, social revolution in its most extreme form is inevitable.

"As has already been said, the trouble will start with the blaming of the Government for all disasters. In the legislative institutions a bitter campaign against the Government will begin, followed by revolutionary agitations throughout the country, with Socialist slogans, capable of arousing and rallying the masses, beginning with the division of the land and succeeded by a division of all valuables and property. The defeated army, having lost its most dependable men, and carried away by the tide of primitive peasant desire for land, will find itself too demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order. The legislative institutions and the intellectual opposition parties, lacking real authority in the eyes of the people, will be powerless to stem the popular tide, aroused by themselves, and Russia will be flung into hopeless anarchy, the issue of which cannot be foreseen..." http://www2.stetson.edu/~psteeves/classes/durnovo.html
 
First step is remove Nicholas II quickly, ratherly before Alexandra begin expect Alexei.

You can get rid of Russian Tsar Nicholas II by having him die in 1900 and then butterfly away both World Wars. Indeed, that might do the trick here.

Removal of NII is very needful but at least WW1 seems being pretty unavoidable. avoiding of Russo-Japanese War might be possible. But it is possible that Russia would be on better shape during Great War.
 
First step is remove Nicholas II quickly, ratherly before Alexandra begin expect Alexei.



Removal of NII is very needful but at least WW1 seems being pretty unavoidable. avoiding of Russo-Japanese War might be possible. But it is possible that Russia would be on better shape during Great War.
Is Russia better off avoiding the Russo-Japanese War and WWI, or better off winning them even if it means risking putting off various reforms?

IMO, Russia getting crazy lucky winning four or five wars relatively quickly against Japan, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Britain, China, and Persia by 1925 and becoming a Super Power in said period is their best bet. National pride as a Super Power (that achieves a far greater population than OTL, like 800 million) and the threat of outsiders holds its European people's together. Western Europe and Japan quickly from an alliance to oppose them (which the US later joins and leads), who promote "degeneracy" and anti-Christian progressive values, China rapidly rises to upper tier Great Power status in the late 20th/early 21st century and claim various lands Russia takes from them ITT in the early 21st century, and the Islamic World hates Russia for its historic treatment of Muslims (and commit various acts of terror against Russia). The perception in a moderately developed (GDP per capita PPP 35,000) corrupt Russian Autocratic society is that they need a strong man to protect them and their empire from threats and hold everything together.
 
Is Russia better off avoiding the Russo-Japanese War and WWI, or better off winning them even if it means risking putting off various reforms?

IMO, Russia getting crazy lucky winning four or five wars relatively quickly against Japan, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Britain, China, and Persia by 1925 and becoming a Super Power in said period is their best bet. National pride as a Super Power (that achieves a far greater population than OTL, like 800 million) and the threat of outsiders holds its European people's together. Western Europe and Japan quickly from an alliance to oppose them (which the US later joins and leads), who promote "degeneracy" and anti-Christian progressive values, China rapidly rises to upper tier Great Power status in the late 20th/early 21st century and claim various lands Russia takes from them ITT in the early 21st century, and the Islamic World hates Russia for its historic treatment of Muslims (and commit various acts of terror against Russia). The perception in a moderately developed (GDP per capita PPP 35,000) corrupt Russian Autocratic society is that they need a strong man to protect them and their empire from threats and hold everything together.

To me, a world where Russia is an arch-conservative, corrupt and authoritarian empire which is basically at odds with everyone else would be pretty much bound to have a great war that leads to Russian humiliation at some point.

To keep a Russian Empire together, it would be beneficial for Russia to modernize early and get some more internal cohesion through a controlled transition to an at least semi-democratic system of constitutional monarchy. The needs of the growing working class should be addressed through allowing some voice to the workers in a representative system, to avoid revolution. A strong, but non-threatening Social Democratic or Democratic Socialist party might be part of the answer. Due to the growing economy, also the middle class grows and in terms of political capital, uses its party/parties to sideline the old aristocracy by the 1930s-50s.

In its foreign politics, Russia should have as many allies and and as few enemies as possible. Maybe there could be some sort of an early 20th century war, where Russia and allies beat Germany decisively and the German Empire is broken up into smaller German states - thus, after also the Austro-Hungarian Empire disintegrates and other stuff happens (handwave), the 20th century in Europe will have no great powers between France and Russia. During this century that avoids renewed major conflicts, Constitutional, sane (and economically growing) Russia is seen as a necessary power to keep eastern Europe (the Balkans especially) in check, in cooperation with the Western European powers Britain and France acting as the other pillar of the stable and generally accepted European order. If there is trouble in "middle Europe", St. Petersburg, London and Paris (and perhaps Rome, Madrid and other lesser partners) can swoop in and work in concert to keep things under wraps.
 
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The irony is that Russia likely needs to lose a war to get reforms that will ensure its long-term survival but without a victory it is likely doomed as an Empire. The autocratic system in Russia reminds me of pre-Revolution France, its institutions and vision so deeply rooted that only a revolution could change it near-term. As we know from the British experience it takes generations to evolve from the divine right of kings to a democratic system under a monarch umbrella. Germany was trapped in that transition itself while Russia lagged far behind it. Industrialization was speeding up the demand from the workers and middle-class for greater share in both wealth and power, in England it took a few centuries, in Germany it was barely a century, and Russia was simply running out of time, thus the revolution broke there so violently swift.

While I am not arguing it would be a better world, the loss to Japan in the Russo-Japanese War began the modern timeline for Asia in many ways and impacted colonialism deeply. Once Russia was defeated it signaled that Europeans were not invincible and began the paths towards independence, industrialization and at least for Japan a certain neo-colonial drive. I think that war fueled the coming World War in many ways. First it shifted the alliances and added Japan to the table, significantly through it elevated Germany past Russia as the bigger threat to Britain. Second it set off reforms in Russia that led to backlash and prompted the elite to see another war as a means to unite the people behind their Czar, Church and Army. Third it showed how incompetent the Russian Empire truly was, and as the World War progressed it only cemented its illegitimacy.

So I would suggest that either the Russo-Japanese War not occur, or at least if it does then Nicky is removed from the scene. Perhaps the loss demands deeper reforms and more significant changes akin to the 1848 "Revolution" in Germany. The net effect needs to be a less aggressive Czar over the period from 1905 to the 1940s when a generation shift occurs. Russia, like Germany, had that window to shift further into democratic institutions, liberal reforms, land reform, and so on. World War One cut short the more peaceful path towards the modern future and the Revolution sidetracked Russia into remaining a virtual autocracy.

Long-term I think Germany and Russia build better trade ties, as Russia liberates its land and empowers is farm class, a likely strong supporter of the Czar in many ways, its agricultural output improves to the benefit of Germany who exports manufactures and chemicals to pay for it, Russia continues to industrialize with a growing urban working class who also have more education and support a growing middle class who invest in both infrastructure and industry. Russia has ample natural resources to both support a domestic industry and to export, Germany forever hungry for resources continues to push ever more modern and innovative, staying at the top end of its industries while Russia captures the lower end with cheaper labor. High-end and luxury goods flow to Russia, heavy industrial goods flow with raw materials to Germany. Here Russia looks more like China and Germany more like the USA, but with wealth and trade Russia liberalizes until it becomes the Grail of modern Constitutional Monarchy. Here I suspect Russia becomes one of the top-three economies by the 1950s or 1970s at latest, depending on whether or not nationalism sweeps the Empire and precipitates a break-up. The Poles are the most restive but plenty of ethnic groups might re-discover their roots as Russia gets more liberated, perhaps the 1960s generation demands strong minority rights, seconded official languages, etc. Of course the coming women's rights will test the conservative values of the Church, the sexual revolution likely hitting Russia a bit later and more testing, but then it might be ready for the big leap into the rather liberal left-leaning welfare state model as the rest of Europe achieves a generation of two before.

So you have the Empire but it works more like a federal republic perhaps, perhaps the biggest such state yet, not quite as fractured the EU or India, but a rather colorful patch work of peoples, cultures and languages that spans a truly massive country.
 
The key is to have a series of small humiliations on the scale of the Russo Japanese war that are enough to give greater powers to the Duma but not enough to seriosuly threaten the monarchy as a whole.

I could see with another small disaster in the 1910s to make the Duma supreme in Russia after that slow enfranchisement could keep order.

If men like witte and stolypin can become prime minister in the first few decades Russia could develop a democracy supporting middle class with a mosty ceremonial monarch.
 

trurle

Banned
With a POD in 1900 or later, make Russia survive to the modern day as an empire. The emperor must still be in power, but Russia can be a democracy like the rest of the European nations with monarchs.
The resistance to reforms in Russian Empire was widespread, and inept Emperor Nicholas II was the carrier of typical attitudes. Therefore, recipe to save Russian Empire can be only of sort "the worse mean better". I propose more shameful defeat in Russo-Japanese war followed by successful revolution of 1905 reducing Emperor to the figurehead. New regime may be more in position to perform land reforms and survive WWI.
 
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