AHC: Make the black vote go back to the Republicans

After the Civil War, African-Americans typically voted Republican. However, the Great Depression and New Deal led the black electorate (which was largely composed of urban Northern voters as most Southerners were disenfranchised) to vote overwhelming for FDR in 1936. This trend continued over the next few elections and was solidified after the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Republicans' nomination of Barry Goldwater.

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With a PoD after 1936 (though, a later one is always more interesting), have the African-Americans be considered either a safe Republican or Republican-leaning demographic.
 
Nixon wins in 1960 and passes the Civil Rights act, while the Dixiecrats win the internal power struggle in the party and it retrenches back to its segregationist roots. Liberal Democrats bolt the party over a period of 20 years, by 1980, the Republicans are a pragmatic, business-friendly, socially moderate to libertarian party while with FDR being considered a blip for the party while the Democrats are a White Populist party, basically a far more economically left version of the current GOP.
 
Nixon wins in 1960 and passes the Civil Rights act, while the Dixiecrats win the internal power struggle in the party and it retrenches back to its segregationist roots. Liberal Democrats bolt the party over a period of 20 years, by 1980, the Republicans are a pragmatic, business-friendly, socially moderate to libertarian party while with FDR being considered a blip for the party while the Democrats are a White Populist party, basically a far more economically left version of the current GOP.

Nixon winning in 1960, presiding over the enactment of a civil rights bill, and winning a better percent of the African American vote in 1964 than the 31 percent he won in 1960 (say, more like the 38 percent Ike won in 1956) is plausible. For the Dixiecrats to win control of the Democratic party IMO is not. The balance of the party had shifted much too far for that. (Even LBJ in 1960 could only be a plausible contender because, though supported by the southerners, he did not appear to be an old-fashioned segregationist--he had helped get a civil rights bill, however watered-down, through Congress.) George Wallace's showing in the 1972 primaries was considered impressive but he only got 23.5 percent of the vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1972

Barring the Democrats' running an outright segregationist, the majority of African Americans are still going to vote Democratic because of economic issues. It just won't be nearly as overwhelming a majority as it has been since 1964 in OTL.

OK, I could see an individual election where the Republicans do much better with African Americans: Ford chooses Brooke as his VP. (Not too likely, but not wildly implausible--an attempt to do something "historic" to offset the impact of Watergate, to woo a large group that had been hostile to the GOP, etc.; also, notice that he was one of Dole's suggestions to Ford at https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/391990962580238336/ ) Squeaky Fromme or Sara Jane Moore succeeds in killing Ford, making Brooke president. Reagan decides not to run in the primaries (Nancy is worried about him, too, getting assassinated), Brooke defeats splintered conservative opposition and is the GOP presidential candidate in 1976... But it's not likely, and even if it happens, the shift of African Americans to the GOP is not likely to last (or even to be duplicated down-ballot in 1976).
 
Wow. Dole's recommendations were all over the map. It's like he was trying to make a list of all the prominent Republicans who have the least in common with each other. He even lumped Rockefeller and Goldwater together on one line, as though they're interchangeable.
 
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