AHC: Make the Astros a suscessful team

Jokerang

Banned
The challange is to make the Houston Astros a suscessful baseball team, with a POD no earlier than 1990.
 
Depends on how you define successful. They won several division titles in the 90's, just never made it past the 1st round of the playoffs.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Well one POD you could start with is, J.R. Richard doesn't get hit by that line drive. Goes on to be a dominant starting pitcher for another decade, ends up in the HOF.

Not enough in and of itself for a dynasty, but its a nice start.

Edit: Notice that the Astros won the NL West that year... then got edged by the Phillies in the NLCS 3 games to 2. The phillies in turn won the series over KC.

So right there, the Astros probably win the series against Philadelphia 3-1, as J.R. wins game one. Then he wins two in the world series, game one and the closer, as the Astros take it 4 games to one.

From there, the Astros draft two spots later in the 1981 June Draft, because they won the championship. Curtis Burke gets picked in round three by someone else, or otherwise isn't picked by the Astros. Instead, they pick an outfielder form Brookhaven, Ohio named Paul O'Neill. Who turns out to be an All-Star later in the 1980s.

From there, the butterflies take over.
 
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have mark cuban buy the astro's... baseball is THE sport where his money could buy a championship... have him do what the marlins did, buy a lot of free agents and rental players till he gets to the top of the mountain
 
Joe Morgan

1. Butterfly away the trade that sends Joe Morgan to the Reds.

2. Have them somehow get Nolan Ryan in the early-70's instead of when they did.
 
Best POD would be J.R. getting a second opinion by a competent doctor rather than accepting what the docs he went to told him. If treated properly, he'd have had surgery almost immediately to remove the clot, rather than being given blood thinners that, in all likelihood, simply thinned out his blood enough to dislodge it, sending it into his brain and causing the stroke. He gets the clot removed and gets proper after-care...being July of 1980 when it happened, I don't think he'd have pitched again that season, BUT, he certainly would have come back stronger for the 1981 season, and with Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Joe Niekro and Bob Knepper in the rotation, the '81 'Stros OTL went 61-49 as it was.

Add a healthy JR Richard at the top of his game to that rotation and I have to pick that team to win it all in 1981 and probably be in a good position to repeat in 1982, possibly stretch it to three in 1983.

The Astros would have had the sickest pitching in baseball and decent enough bats to win some very weak offensive seasons in the NL in 1982 and 1983.

The early to mid 80's would have been good times for the 'Stros, but I don't think they'd still be strong enough to hold back the Mets in '86.

Still, they could definitely have won at least one Series in that time, 1981-1985.

Another thing that could have made them better later on would have been to keep Curt Schilling, rather than trade him to Philly for Jason Grimsley.

Can't understand what they hoped to accomplish with that trade for the life of me.

Also, not trading Finley and Caminiti to San Diego would have helped.

In the 1990's, a core of:

Bagwell
Biggio
Caminiti
Finley
Gonzalez

in the line up (and the field) plus a rotation of:

Schilling
Hampton
Kile
Shane Reynolds

with Billy Wagner closing would have been formidable enough to make more than a few playoff appearances, and, probably could have won a Series, especially if they still make the deal for Johnson in 1998.

They'd have to spend some money though, and that could make all of the above little more than wishful thinking as I don't know if Drayton McClain is the sort of owner who pinches his penny's so tight that Lincoln gets migraines or just doesn't have the capital to keep a team that stocked.
 
Another thing they could have done was draft a bit better, particularly in the sixties and seventies, when, sometimes, the difference between boom and bust was a pick or two away...


1965 draft: Take Johnny Bench (taken 36th) in the second round (pick #24).

A little more than a pick or two (twelve picks actually) away, BUT, I don't know if there's such a thing as reaching in baseball drafts.

Especially when you consider that Bench was a high school standout from just across the border in Oklahoma.

If they don't take Bench, they still could have grabbed a great catcher three years later...

1968 draft: Take Thurman Munson (#4 overall) instead of Martin Cott at #3.

Literally one pick after the Astros took career minor leaguer Cott, the Yankees took a guy that was the heart and soul of their team for almost a decade, before his untimely and tragic demise in a plane crash in 1979.

Cott was a catcher, so you know the 'Stros were looking for one that year.

Deep pick in 1968: Cecil Cooper at 111th in the 6th, seventeen picks ahead of the Red Sox.

One thing I noticed about the Astros was lack of consistent power bats in the line up for long stretches of time, particularly in the seventies.

I don't know if it was the Astrodome having an adverse effect on the hitters, but there's a couple of hitters who could overcome such obstacles...

1971 draft: Take Jim Rice (#15 overall) instead of Neil Rasmussen (#12)

Rice could rake, and would have been peaking around the time the pitching was turning into a world beater.

1974: 1st round, 15th pick, the Astros took Kevin Drake (career minor leaguer)...next pick? Lance Parrish, eight time All Star catcher and first baseman, 324 career homers, taken at 16 by the Tigers.

Speaking of pilfering the Tigers...

1976: Alan Trammell was the second pick in the second round that year, #26th overall...1 pick after the Astros took Philip Klimas. Yeah, I never heard of him either.

Solid defensive short stop with a solid bat who could steal a base.

1976, 5th round, 97th pick overall. RHP Joe Isaacs. The Tigers took Jack Morris, also a RHP, with the 98th pick.

In the 1980's, no starting pitcher won more games than Jack Morris. Isaacs...never pitched in the majors.

1978 draft: Take Kirk Gibson (drafted at #12) instead of Rod Boxberger as the 11th overall pick.

Gibby would be in the majors by '79, bringing a combination of power, speed and average with him.

He didn't get much playing time with the Tigers until 1983, while Steve Kemp and a revolving door of outfielders kept him from getting regular playing time.

In Houston, I think he could have been a regular much quicker, on those early eighties teams sporting Rice and (perhaps) a healthy JR Richard, Nolan Ryan (perhaps they keep Floyd Bannister, the #1 overall pick in 1976) giving them a solid arm from the left side) and the rest of the pitching staff, Jose Cruz

In the first round in 1977, they could have taken Bob Welch at 14, before the Dodgers took him at 20.

So there's a way the Astros could have built up through better drafting too.
 

Daffy Duck

Banned
Astros

Allright..I had to chime in on this one...being a native houstonian...So you want a successful Astros team. :rolleyes:

After watching the 1st game of the 2011 season, this will be quite a challenge. The Astros have some SERIOUS managerial issues.

-They need to, first and foremost, sell the team. BlairWitch had it right, let a Mark Cuban (or someone like him) run the team. Sorry, but I call em as I see em folks. Drayton needs to sell the team and they need to fire Ed Wade. When you have a team that fires allstar Jose Cruz as a 1st base coach, something is wrong. Yes, they rehired him to the front office but how they did it to him shows a complete lack of respect and also, more to the point, it shows how out of touch they are with their fan base.

-Spend the money, get some true leaders on the team. The Astros want to build a young time, fine... get some mentors in with the younger players, active players who are leaders, who have WON, who have the determination that rub off on the younger teammates.
Watching the first 3 games of the 2011 season was like a rerun of last season. Really sad.

-Bring Jose Cruz back on the team to coach, bring Biggio or Bagwell back on the team to coach...hell bring Tony Robbins on the team to coach!! I'd actually pay to see Ozzie Guillen scream at the umpires on behalf of the Astros. At least the games would be entertaining.
Seriously, bring in Curt Schilling as the pitching coach...I can't think of a better choice. Craig Biggio would do the team justice big-time.
 
All this talk of improving the Astros is all very well, but if its to make them World Series winners I'll have to insist this thread be moved to ASB.:D
 
The Astros pony up the extra cash to take Derek Jeter in the 1992 draft, rather than passing him up for Phil Nevin.

It's worth noting that the Astros made the playoffs OTL in '97, '98, '99, and '01, came up 1 game behind in '03, and made it to the World Series in 2005. Several of the playoff games, particularly those against the Braves in the late '90s, were one-run games, which could have easily gone the other way, especially if the Astros have better batting/pitching/managing than OTL (Jeter on the team might be all that's necessary). All 2005 World Series games were decided by 2 runs or less.

Heck, just have Chad Qualls not give up a grand slam in Game 2, that's a Houston victory. The Astros manage to get Chris Burke home in the 9th in Game 3 (say there's a wild pitch or something), that's a Houston victory. Jermaine Dye hits the ball in a slightly different direction in Game 4, he's out instead of scoring the go-ahead and only RBI of that game; it goes into extras tied scoreless and Houston scores in extras.... three pitches slightly altered, and it's Houston 3 games to 1 as the calendar flips to 10/27/05, rather than Houston being swept.

That's not a dynasty, but it is a World Series victory. If you want a dynasty, my suggestion is:

- Astros draft Jeter (could have easily happened OTL).
- Luck goes different way in close playoff games.
- For whatever reason, McGwire is traded to Houston rather than St. Louis on 7/31/97. The 1998 season would still have the home-run-record race, which would draw media attention, ticket sales, and memorabilia sales (the extra revenues from which could be reinvested in the team). This doesn't have to happen and I don't know if it's plausible at all, but it would probably help.
- If the Braves were weaker in the '97-'03 period than in OTL, that would help somewhat. Not sure how that would happen - the injury bug bites different and less expendable players, perhaps?
 
While the challenge was post 1990, I couldn't help going back to the early days. The Astros as an expansion team came up with a lot of talent in the 60s, but couldn't do much with it and dribbled it away.

The Astros can be very relevant in the NL West from 1970-1975 by taking the following 4 steps starting in 1968:

1 – don’t gut the team after the 68 season by trading Rusty Staub, Mike Cuellar, and Dave Giusti (for which they got back catcher Johnny Edwards, outfielder Jesus Alou, pitcher Jack Billingham, outfielder Curt Blefary, and some junk).
2 – understand, really understand, the ballpark effects of the Astrodome in making offense look worse than it really is and in making pitching look better than it actually is.
3 – don’t over use and burn out young power pitching arms; specifically Larry Dierker and Tom Griffin. (1968 still might be too late for Dierker)
4 – and the obvious one, don’t trade Joe Morgan (or John Mayberry) after the 1971 season.

Note: without Edwards, they would need to acquire a catcher as their starter at catch in 68 had been drafted after the season by the expansion Expos. All other moves can remain basically the same. This includes: acquire 21 year old Cesar Geronimo after 68 season in the Rule 5 draft, purchase Mike Marshall from Milwaukee in November 1969 – but then don’t trade him during the 1970 season to Montreal, bring up Cesar Cedeno during 1970 as a 19 year old, let 24 year old Ken Forsch enter the starting rotation in 1971, acquire Jerry Reuss April 15, 1972 for chump change from the Cardinals because he was in a contract dispute with Auggie Busch.

Based on the above, the major components of their 1972 roster would look like this (including each players 1972 stats):

Catcher: TBD
1B (platoon, and LF): Bob Watson (age 26) - .312 ave / .378 obp / .464 slg
1B (platoon): John Mayberry (age 23) - .298 ave / .394 obp / .507 slg
2B: Joe Morgan (age 28) - .292 ave / .417 obp / .435 slg / 58 SBs
SS: Roger Metzger (age 24) - .222 ave / .288 obp / .259 slg / 23 SBs
3B: Dennis Rader (age 27) - .237 ave / .309 obp / .425 slg
LF: Rusty Staub (age 28) - .293 ave / .372 obp / .452 slg
CF: Cesar Cedeno (age 21) - .320 ave / .385 obp / .537 slg / 55 SBs
RF: Jimmy Wynn (age 30) - .273 ave / .389 obp / .470 slg / 17 SBs
OF Defensive Replacement: Cesar Cedeno (age 24)

SP1: Mike Cuellar (age 35) – 248 IPs / 132 Ks / 2.57 ERA
SP2: Don Wilson (age 27) – 228 IPs / 172 Ks / 2.68 ERA
SP3: Larry Dierker (age 25) – 214 IPs / 115 Ks / 3.40 ERA
SP4: Jerry Reuss (age 23) – 192 IPs / 174 Ks / 4.17 ERA
SP5: Ken Forsch (age 25) – 156 IPs / 113 Ks / 3.91 ERA

RP1: Dave Giusti (age 32) – 74 IPs / 54 Ks / 1.93 ERA
RP2: Mike Marshall (age 29) – 116 IPS / 95 Ks / 1.78 ERA
RP3: Tom Griffin (age 24) – 94 IPs / 83 Ks / 3.24 ERA

That’s a hell of an offense, even with a TBD catcher and a millstone around the neck named Metzger. The first 5 hitters would be getting on base (with power) at an incredible pace. Denis Rader and his 22 HRs in the 6th slot would get a ton of RBI opportunities. Houston already led the league in runs in 1972 with 708, which is something playing in the Astrodome. I’d guesstimate 50 more runs with this lineup.

The pitching was ranked 9th (of 12) in runs in the NL in 1972. And that’s with half their games played in the Astrodome, so with park effects in consideration they were probably the worse staff in the league. Replacing Dave Roberts (192 IPs/4.50 ERA) with Cuellar in the rotation, seeing better performances out of healthier arms for Dierker and Griffin, and adding Giusti and Marshall to a mediocre bullpen probably saves about 50 runs scored. Keeping Morgan at 2nd and Geronimo as an OF defensive replacement might save them a couple of runs over all from defense, but Tommy Helms who came over from Cincinnati to play second base wasn’t any slouch in the field.

IOTL the Stros finshed 3rd in the NL West going 84 W – 69 L by scoring 708 and giving up 636. With the new roster, I estimate 758 runs scored and 586 runs given up. IOTL the Reds scored 707 and gave up 557 to win the division with a 95 W – 59 L record. With a better run differential than the Reds, increased even more without the Reds having Morgan, Geronimo, and Billingham, I see the Astros winning the division. And the team is young enough, if kept together, to keep on playing for divisional titles for at least 3 or 4 more years.
 
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