Hi All! I wanted to just add my own two cents:
1. Don't care about Poland LOL, my POD will be with Germany vs France
Starting from OP's requirement of 1939,
- Allies sanction and blockade Germany as per usual,
- British buy out all oil from Romania, leaving none left for the Germans, (planned this in OTL)
- As the Baltic freezes in winter, Swedish shipments of iron have to go around the North Sea, Allies cut off any shipments to Germany, (planned this in OTL)
- Stalin is more manipulative in this TL, he cuts off supplies to the Germans at crucial moments during the German push west (because he plans to back stab the Germans in this TL) (Plus: the Nazi's believed that Stalin would've done this in OTL too, so I definitely think this is far from ASB).
- Nazis continue with a full Panzer assault through the Ardennes, just like in OTL (East Belgian Forrests), big POD coming up,
- The French only guarded the Ardennes with a small amount of second rate troops (They predicted the terrain to be too hostile for Panzers, which it was), Instead, the French make sure equally guard all parts of the Belgian border. (Originally the French put the best troops of their entire army along the west Belgian border, however they are now much more equally dispersed,
- Lets give the Nazi's the benefit of the doubt, the Panzers are able to still make a good push against a way better French force than in OTL, even despite that, reinforcements would be coming in hot. Not to mention, as previously stated, the terrain was not friendly for Panzers (the Nazi's had to move swiftly through the Ardennes), but now their forces would be dramatically slowed down, and eventually with French reinforcements, would be facing the best of the french army in unforgiving terrain
- I want to remind the reader that Hitler called for a full panzer invasion through the Ardennes, if they fail to push through, essentially the entire German panzer force is kaput. On top of that, the main German supplier of Oil, Iron, and Food was the soviets, who would have decided to backstab the Germans.
- Any German Panzer spearhead would have been cut off by now fully mobilized French tanks. Once again, these panzers would have lower supplies, and be in difficult terrain where they HAD TO MOVE FAST
- Essentially the Panzer invasion is a failure. Hitler put his chips all his chips in, so did the French in OTL, but not in this TL, The Nazi's panzer force is demolished, and they are cut off from supplies.
- As a response to the failed Panzer invasion, Dutch morale is raise, and now the Dutch are much more inclined to at least hold off the Germans.
- French counter attack begins, they secure the Belgian-German Border, and also begin heading through Luxembourg, French supply lines directly lead to the southern dutch border
- As the summer of 1940 progresses a Germany without supplies, without their Panzers, and their six armored divisions are forced to resort more and more on their infantry, which is slowly running low on food, due to the Soviets cutting off their trade supplies.
- Anglo-Dutch-French troops are able to cross the German border swiftly capturing everything west of the Rhine in the fall of 1940
- An Un-disciplined and un-prepared Italian military is forced to bare the brunt of a fully supplied French and British offensive.
- Stalin, seeing Germany's inevitable defeat begins the soviet invasion of Nazi-occupied Poland, spending the winter of 1940, as well as much of 1941 capturing all of Poland and devastating the axis in the Balkans.
- Because of Germany's desperate situation, they cannot aid Finland nearly as much as OTL, leaving them to deal with an angry Stalin looking for revenge during the continuation war
- The Nazi's are forced to divert a great deal of their attention towards the eastern front which is being pillaged by soviets with an immense amount of manpower and supplies, this forces the Nazi's to have less military defenses on their western front
- By the spring of 1941, Dutch, Belgian, Anglo, and French troops push past Cologne and Nuremburg, racing towards Bremen and Munich
- Germany military policy attempts to mimic that of 1945 OTL when they were in full defensive mode, however by 1942 the Nazi's would have nowhere near enough supplies left to maintain their military, every tank, plane, and artillery that is being destroyed cannot be repaired, due to a lack of iron. German counter offensive strategies continue to become more and more limited due to a lack of oil, and more reliant on infantry. Finally, Germany infantry is forced to ration less and less food due to a lack of agricultural supplies (or food in layman's terms).
- The Italians quickly lose Libya back in 1940, and by 1941, the French and British have made numerous landings in Sicily, Naples, and Sardinia, unrest is rising quickly in Italy, and surrender seems inevitable
- By 1942, the allies pass Hamburg and are less than 70 miles from Berlin, Bavaria is captured, Austria is liberated as a consequence, Italy eventually surrenders, by this time the allies have taken the entire bulk of the German Military Machine, as well as completely drained it of whatever supplies it had left
- Towards the end of 1942 the Allies liberate Yugoslavia and Albania (greece was never taken in this TL, therefore, they are allowed military access), Bulgaria is narrowly liberated by the Allies instead of the Soviets, The Soviets "Liberate" Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Poland
- The allies and soviets reach Berlin at about the same time, therefore Soviet East Germany will be smaller in this TL, if it even exists at all. The Nazi's surrender, Europe is won.
- In September of 1942, the Soviets break their non aggression pact with the Japanese, and rush them even faster than in OTL, they also manage to take all of Korea in this TL by spring 1943
- Because the US joined the war in 1941, and it ended in Europe in 1942, they gain nowhere near the same amount of global influence as they did in OTL's post ww2 world, they also suffer around the same amount of casualties, due to most of their fighting being in the Pacific
- The Soviets and European Allies suffer about 1/4th of the casualties that they endured in OTL, ww2 is bloody, but no where near as bad as ww1 in this TL, the Europeans are able to maintain their colonies around the world much more easily, there is no need for a Marshall plan, and instead they end up funding the US and sending over supplies from 1943 to 1945 to aid the US in the pacific.
- Because of a way more powerful Soviet force, China is liberated by the soviets, and turns communist by around 1946-1947, also, once again, Korea is unified under the communist Kim Il Sung regime.
Please reply and leave your thoughts, sorry for becoming increasingly vague as I continued with the scenario, however I justify it because of the ever building momentum since the POD I put in place.