AHC: Make Texas A Modern Swing State

As the tin says, your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to make Texas a modern swing state, like Florida or Ohio. Extra points if you do it after 1980.
 
It's heading that way in OTL, just slowly.

I think your best bet is to have Texas Republicans work to overtly alienate the Texan Hispanic population, rather than trying to win them over (Texan Hispanics tend to lean more Republican than most). A less nasty 1994, which keeps Ann Richards in office, might also work to keep white Texans more Democratic over the long term.
 
Democrats remain to be in the mold of Bill Clinton, and the GOP has a disastrous presidency that makes Boomers born in the Eisenhower presidency be alienated from the party.
 
It's heading that way in OTL, just slowly.

I think your best bet is to have Texas Republicans work to overtly alienate the Texan Hispanic population, rather than trying to win them over (Texan Hispanics tend to lean more Republican than most). A less nasty 1994, which keeps Ann Richards in office, might also work to keep white Texans more Democratic over the long term.

Yeah, George W. Bush, for all his faults, was extremely successful in winning over Hispanic voters. Have some far-right nut defeat Richards in 94, alienate Hispanic voters with Joe Arpaio antics, and that would really push Texas purple.
 
Another more complicated route might be a perception that large business owners managers have 'screw labor' attitude. If there is a growing attitude among blue collar and low level white & pink collar labor/management that they are getting screwed the Democratic party can pick up some votes.
 
Texas Latinos are a bit different from Latino populations in other parts of the United States. They have higher rates of
(a) Being in this country longer (meaning they're more assimilated, more integrated, more likely to identify as white, often being intermarried or being the product of intermarriages and having last names like Miller or Bush)
(b) Living in rural areas (advantage Republican due to gun stances and rural voters generally leaning Republican)
(c) Being Pentecostal (advantage GOP)

If you get the Democrats to be more moderate on gun policy that'd help a lot. Get the GOP to nominate a Pete Wilson equivalent (alienating hispanic voters) and for the GOP to become more protectionist (Texas benefits a lot from NAFTA) and you could see a stronger Democratic Party in the state. Tbh, a lot of the state Democrat Party's issues come from the party not being the sharpest. Moderate/Centrist Andrew White just lost to more progressive Lupe Valdez for Governor and in 2014 they thought nominating Wendy Davis (whose claim to fame was being very pro-choice) for Governor would be a good idea. Beto O'Rourke is fairly progressive, but he's also solidly pro-trade and a very hardcore campaigner so he's outperforming where the Democrats have been in the past.

Guns, trade, and immigration are probably the big issues I think.




Aside from those, having Texas's urban areas be larger would make the state bluer.

Bill Clinton lost Texas by 3 points in 1992 and 5 points in 1996.
 
Another more complicated route might be a perception that large business owners managers have 'screw labor' attitude. If there is a growing attitude among blue collar and low level white & pink collar labor/management that they are getting screwed the Democratic party can pick up some votes.
You know what got thr ball rolling on incorporating California Latinos into the Democratic coalition? Unions. Even before Chavez, there was quite a bit of effort among the unions to sign up California Latinos postwar. Texas, of course, has been more antagonistic to organized labor.

So in addition to no attempts to coopt the Hispanic vote from the GOP, you could also do well to encourage more union membership among Texas Latinos.

Yeah, George W. Bush, for all his faults, was extremely successful in winning over Hispanic voters. Have some far-right nut defeat Richards in 94, alienate Hispanic voters with Joe Arpaio antics, and that would really push Texas purple.

You don't even need that, I mean Pete Wilson in California (spit) alienated Latinos over Prop 187. I think the political rationale was that he needed to pander to the FAIR types, who in turn exploited economic unease among the white lower middle classes following the shitcanning of a lot of manufacturing jobs in CA in the 1990s.

Maybe have an oil glut in the 90s that drives oil prices even lower? Might create the same sorts of tensions.
 
@Jackson Lennock Texas also has the (dubious) advantage of having a weaker labor union climate than, say, California. CA Latinos are, as you say, more urban than their Texas counterparts, and have also tended to be involved in sectors of the economy that lend themselves to labor militancy.

Also Wilson in part did what he did because of economic realities in California that may not apply to Texas.
 
If the Texas legislature keeps focusing on social issues like the bathroom bill and ignores infrastructure and education, they run the risk of Texas businesses starting to donate money to more moderate Democrats to act as a brake on the Republicans. As moderate Democratic are elected then it encourage others moderates to run.

Also as more and more people move from other states this increases the number of more progressive people living in Texas. I do understand that it is not a one for one. However where I live in Texas there are very few native born Texans and there were a lot of Obama and Clinton yard signs in the past. The Beto yard signs started to appear as he gain more visibility.

This especially true as more high tech companies come to Texas. These companies bring in more diverse work force that in many cases will think differenlyt about issues. If Amazon puts their second headquarters in Texas, that could bring a lot of people to Texas who may be more progressive.

Finally the growing number of school shooting and the middle class concerns over this means that the Republican's traditional ideas of expanding availability of guns and not doing anything to stop people from having guns could hurt. If the Democrats are seen as backing commonsense ideas like red flag laws and keeping the database of people not eligible to purchase weapons updated, they could make in roads. This is especially true of they defend the rights of regular people to own hunting guns and guns for personal safety.
 
Texas Latinos are a bit different from Latino populations in other parts of the United States. They have higher rates of
(a) Being in this country longer (meaning they're more assimilated, more integrated, more likely to identify as white, often being intermarried or being the product of intermarriages and having last names like Miller or Bush)
(b) Living in rural areas (advantage Republican due to gun stances and rural voters generally leaning Republican)
(c) Being Pentecostal (advantage GOP)

If you get the Democrats to be more moderate on gun policy that'd help a lot. Get the GOP to nominate a Pete Wilson equivalent (alienating hispanic voters) and for the GOP to become more protectionist (Texas benefits a lot from NAFTA) and you could see a stronger Democratic Party in the state. Tbh, a lot of the state Democrat Party's issues come from the party not being the sharpest. Moderate/Centrist Andrew White just lost to more progressive Lupe Valdez for Governor and in 2014 they thought nominating Wendy Davis (whose claim to fame was being very pro-choice) for Governor would be a good idea. Beto O'Rourke is fairly progressive, but he's also solidly pro-trade and a very hardcore campaigner so he's outperforming where the Democrats have been in the past.

Guns, trade, and immigration are probably the big issues I think.




Aside from those, having Texas's urban areas be larger would make the state bluer.

Bill Clinton lost Texas by 3 points in 1992 and 5 points in 1996.

You bring up a good point with the mixed heritage thing, that does play to many Republican’s advantage, and could provide a barrier. In my option, it’ll probably be an obstacle no matter what, because even if the Wilson-type alienates Latinos, many will still see themselves as at least half Irish/German/Italian (etc.).
 
Innate conservatism among Hispanics driven to vote Democratic might alleviate extreme positions in that party & move more of its politicians to the center. In modern US politics the battle is as much in the primaries as the finish vote.
 
You bring up a good point with the mixed heritage thing, that does play to many Republican’s advantage, and could provide a barrier. In my option, it’ll probably be an obstacle no matter what, because even if the Wilson-type alienates Latinos, many will still see themselves as at least half Irish/German/Italian (etc.).
I mean it happens in most of the Southwest generally, the difference IMO is more due to economic factors and a different labor-management environment.
 
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