Calcaterra
Donor
As the tin says, your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to make Texas a modern swing state, like Florida or Ohio. Extra points if you do it after 1980.
It's heading that way in OTL, just slowly.
I think your best bet is to have Texas Republicans work to overtly alienate the Texan Hispanic population, rather than trying to win them over (Texan Hispanics tend to lean more Republican than most). A less nasty 1994, which keeps Ann Richards in office, might also work to keep white Texans more Democratic over the long term.
You know what got thr ball rolling on incorporating California Latinos into the Democratic coalition? Unions. Even before Chavez, there was quite a bit of effort among the unions to sign up California Latinos postwar. Texas, of course, has been more antagonistic to organized labor.Another more complicated route might be a perception that large business owners managers have 'screw labor' attitude. If there is a growing attitude among blue collar and low level white & pink collar labor/management that they are getting screwed the Democratic party can pick up some votes.
Yeah, George W. Bush, for all his faults, was extremely successful in winning over Hispanic voters. Have some far-right nut defeat Richards in 94, alienate Hispanic voters with Joe Arpaio antics, and that would really push Texas purple.
Texas Latinos are a bit different from Latino populations in other parts of the United States. They have higher rates of
(a) Being in this country longer (meaning they're more assimilated, more integrated, more likely to identify as white, often being intermarried or being the product of intermarriages and having last names like Miller or Bush)
(b) Living in rural areas (advantage Republican due to gun stances and rural voters generally leaning Republican)
(c) Being Pentecostal (advantage GOP)
If you get the Democrats to be more moderate on gun policy that'd help a lot. Get the GOP to nominate a Pete Wilson equivalent (alienating hispanic voters) and for the GOP to become more protectionist (Texas benefits a lot from NAFTA) and you could see a stronger Democratic Party in the state. Tbh, a lot of the state Democrat Party's issues come from the party not being the sharpest. Moderate/Centrist Andrew White just lost to more progressive Lupe Valdez for Governor and in 2014 they thought nominating Wendy Davis (whose claim to fame was being very pro-choice) for Governor would be a good idea. Beto O'Rourke is fairly progressive, but he's also solidly pro-trade and a very hardcore campaigner so he's outperforming where the Democrats have been in the past.
Guns, trade, and immigration are probably the big issues I think.
Aside from those, having Texas's urban areas be larger would make the state bluer.
Bill Clinton lost Texas by 3 points in 1992 and 5 points in 1996.
Yep; as the Hispanic and Asian percentage in Texas increases, Texas should become more purple (even if Texas Hispanics are more conservative than most).It's heading that way in OTL, just slowly.
I mean it happens in most of the Southwest generally, the difference IMO is more due to economic factors and a different labor-management environment.You bring up a good point with the mixed heritage thing, that does play to many Republican’s advantage, and could provide a barrier. In my option, it’ll probably be an obstacle no matter what, because even if the Wilson-type alienates Latinos, many will still see themselves as at least half Irish/German/Italian (etc.).