AHC: Make Saudi Arabia democratic by 2016

Don Quijote

Banned
How could the nation of Saudi Arabia become secular and democratic by the year 2016?
Does it have to still be under the House of Saud? If we look at how Jordan has progressed under the Hashemites, I'd say it's easily possible for a Hashemite Arabia to achieve democracy by the 21st century.
 
Does it have to still be under the House of Saud? If we look at how Jordan has progressed under the Hashemites, I'd say it's easily possible for a Hashemite Arabia to achieve democracy by the 21st century.

Agree. With Hashemites is easier to make Arabia at least somehow democratic and secular nation. Sauds are practically married with relitious anti-democracy extremists. There is surely several Sauds who would want make Saudi Arabia more democratic and secular but there is just too much pressure from conservative Sauds and clergymen that they couldn't achieve much. Sauds and Wahhabites are just too reactionary that much changes can happen.
 
Does it have to still be under the House of Saud? If we look at how Jordan has progressed under the Hashemites, I'd say it's easily possible for a Hashemite Arabia to achieve democracy by the 21st century.
Could democracy be accomplished via civil war?
 
US pressures them after 9/11- let's say the evidence of Saudi links to the perpetrators is too concrete to be hidden. Either there is a quick war, or the royal family has to step down or face being hunted.
 
Find some way, it's a difficult challenge, for the Free Princes Movement to succeed. A written constitution, reduced power of the monarch, and semi-elected advisory committee - even with a very limited franchise, at least gives you a starting point to grow from. Assuming that you get some form of democratic government though I still can't see a secular government.
 
US pressures them after 9/11- let's say the evidence of Saudi links to the perpetrators is too concrete to be hidden. Either there is a quick war, or the royal family has to step down or face being hunted.

I doubt strongly that USA would in any case pressure Saudi Arabia to make so radical changes. Americans need Saudi oil. It is too good business that they would ruin that. Most what they would do is ask Saudi government purge extremists from royal family and other high offices. And Saudis probably willingfully do that.
 
I doubt strongly that USA would in any case pressure Saudi Arabia to make so radical changes. Americans need Saudi oil. It is too good business that they would ruin that. Most what they would do is ask Saudi government purge extremists from royal family and other high offices. And Saudis probably willingfully do that.
So with that logic, the USA could do that same thing to force Saudi Arabia to become democratic.
 
The 1969 Coup attempt is successful with the regime creating a Nasser esq republic in the newly renamed Republic of Arabia. America backs the new republic due to fear of Soviet control. This republic moves away for Washbism of earlier of regime and follows the earlier Nasser path. It begins to create a new Arabian identity away from religion using investment from oil into military and education and begins to assert it's authority on the region while clamping down on dissent. The regime begins to decline in popularity thanks to failure democratice with the newly emerging middle class and anger from the weakness Milan's who have support from the gulf states. By the 90s and the end of the cold war the regime is weak with coup generation being older and oil prices not what they were and the younger generation rise up and demand there voice be heard like in Taiwan and behind Iron curtain and by the late 90s the republic hosts it's first democratic election.
 
The 1969 Coup attempt is successful with the regime creating a Nasser esq republic in the newly renamed Republic of Arabia. America backs the new republic due to fear of Soviet control. This republic moves away for Washbism of earlier of regime and follows the earlier Nasser path. It begins to create a new Arabian identity away from religion using investment from oil into military and education and begins to assert it's authority on the region while clamping down on dissent. The regime begins to decline in popularity thanks to failure democratice with the newly emerging middle class and anger from the weakness Milan's who have support from the gulf states. By the 90s and the end of the cold war the regime is weak with coup generation being older and oil prices not what they were and the younger generation rise up and demand there voice be heard like in Taiwan and behind Iron curtain and by the late 90s the republic hosts it's first democratic election.
That's pretty cool.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
Could democracy be accomplished via civil war?
If you go back to the Arab Revolt and the early days of Arab independence, the best way would be to avoid the civil war in the early 1920s which resulted in the Hashemites being deposed by the Saudis.
 
I can see two possibilities:
1) As noted, a different turn to the civil war in the early 20th century, probably coupled with different British policy, could conceivably have led to a non-Saud Saudi Arabia that might have embraced securalism like Ataturk's Turkey. Things, then, could progress towards eventual democratization, but (potentially) avoid Islamism as a political force.

2) Attendant to the "Arab Spring," liberalization/democratization movements could potentially have flared up in Saudi. If the Saudis were divided on how to deal with it, these could have spread and eventually forced them from power (though it would probably be bloody).
 
I doubt strongly that USA would in any case pressure Saudi Arabia to make so radical changes. Americans need Saudi oil. It is too good business that they would ruin that. Most what they would do is ask Saudi government purge extremists from royal family and other high offices. And Saudis probably willingfully do that.

If there's a stone cold link between 9/11 and the Saudis that gets made public, as in the lead story on the evening news shows is "Intelligence Community Claims "Nearly Irrefutable" Evidence of Saudi-9/11 Link", inaction on it due to oil would lead to impeachment at the LEAST (or everyone supporting the inaction being thrown out in 2002, THEN impeachment). That's the LEAST disruptive scenario.

Could Congress DOW on Saudi Arabia without Bush asking for it? Certainly the constituents will be asking for military action.
 
I can think of no way for them to be secular, however there could have been something interesting that got rid of the Saudi monarchy: the Arab Spring. The Muslim Brotherhood, after a lot of success in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East, spreads into Saudi Arabia, causing a revolution or a civil war, ending with some kind of Islamic democracy.
 
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