AHC: Make Plan Z a reality

[Old1812]

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with making the Unmentionable Sea Mammal more feasible.

Seeing Avalanche Press' new WWII series "The Long War" has got me thinking about the Plan Z ships. In OTL, Admiral Raeder's grand fleet remained a dream, but what would have been necessary for it to have been realized?

 

[sloreck]

Plan Z was, at best, designed to be done by 1946 - which IMO was optimistic. If you have Dunkirk be a disaster, Britain has armistice, Germany knocks Russia out in 12-24 months, maybe you might get this built. However unless Germany occupies the UK, how do they prevent the British (and the Americans) from building up even more than they do.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Its really tricky, TBH, and probably not a very smart move on Germany's part. Due to a lack of trained crew, technical expertise, drydock facilities, ect. speeding up Plan Z to the point it could feesably be completed before the start of WW II isen't just a matter of "scaling up" resource allocation. Except for the submarine program and unlike training land and air forces, large shipbuilding efforts coulden't be hidden or passed off as "civilian clubs", or even viably be done secretly in the Soviet Union like some of the early tank research.

 

[Gudestein]

To make it a reality amidst history as we know it is not going to happen. Have Germany increase their domestic coal and steel production earlier, maybe even get all the major shipyards busy from 1929 with Deutschland class and new cruisers, and then have an armistice in 1940 and a brest litovsk like peace in the east in 1941 (in itself quite tricky), and then plan Z might be executed.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

To make it a reality amidst history as we know it is not going to happen. Have Germany increase their domestic coal and steel production earlier, maybe even get all the major shipyards busy from 1929 with Deutschland class and new cruisers, and then have an armistice in 1940 and a brest litovsk like peace in the east in 1941 (in itself quite tricky), and then plan Z might be executed.

On the subject of coal it would have been useful if the Treaty of Versailles hadn't partitioned Silesia between Germany and Poland. Silesia produced 23% of Germany's coal (and 75% of its zinc ore). Poland received most of that in the partition.

Polish Silesia had a population of 1,298,352 in the 1931 Census (Source Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1938) and the taxes they paid 1933-39 would help to pay for German rearmament. Earlier Anschluss possibly after the Dolfuss Affair would have helped financially too.

On the subject of the Treaty of Versailles if it had allowed the Weimar Republic the same number of ships, but a personnel strength of 20,000 officers and men instead of the OTL 15,000 that would have helped with the expansion of the navy after 1933. It would also have helped if the tonnage restrictions on cruisers were less restrictive, say a maximum displacement of 7,500 tons instead of the OTL 6,000 tons.

An earlier end to the Treaty of Versailles and an earlier Anglo-German Naval Agreement (which happens in @miketr's Diesel Kriegsmarine thread) would have helped a lot too. IIRC the original Panzerschiffen D and E were laid down 18 months before being re-laid down as the Twins. Had D and E been laid down as the Twins in the first place that effectively brings Graff Zeppelin, Aircraft Carrier B, Bismarck, Tirpitz, the Hipper class and the first 30 Z boats forward 18 months also. Subsequent construction like the H class battleships is also started earlier so it's more feasible for the plan to be completed on time if the completion date is the same as OTL.

The British wouldn't be able to bring their OTL new construction programmes forward by 18 months because what they could do before the end of 1936 was still limited by the First London Naval Treaty. They would catch up in the medium to long term, but in the short term the naval balance would be more favourable or at least less unfavourable to Germany.

 

[Dorknought]

... or even viably be done secretly in the Soviet Union like some of the early tank research.

From the 100m mark windfall that the German Navy received from scrapping the ships that it was required to scrap under the Versailles terms they set up NV Ingenieurskantoor voor Scheepsbouw (IvS) in the Netherlands as an incubator for their submarine research and design knowledge.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with making the Unmentionable Sea Mammal more feasible.

Seeing Avalanche Press' new WWII series "The Long War" has got me thinking about the Plan Z ships. In OTL, Admiral Raeder's grand fleet remained a dream, but what would have been necessary for it to have been realized?

Does this also include the Japanese dominating Asia and a United States that is very anti-Japanese and has a isolationism policy.

 

[Dorknought]

The Germans built about 1160 submarines in WW2. As a sub is about a 20th of the cost of a 35,000 ton battleship the 6 H Class (56,000 tons each) would be about 200 submarines and the 4 carriers (a 23,000 ton carrier is about 26 submarines) come in at 106 submarines. We're at about a quarter of OTL sub numbers for the core of the Z Plan programme depending if Germany can loot the resources of Europe or not.

 

[Old1812]

Does this also include the Japanese dominating Asia and a United States that is very anti-Japanese and has a isolationism policy.

I'm not quite sure. I wouldn't think it would be necessary to making Plan Z happen, but I'm sure it would be helpful.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

I'm not quite sure. I wouldn't think it would be necessary to making Plan Z happen, but I'm sure it would be helpful.

Because it is in the The Long War in the Atlantic and Pacific that Avalanche Press crreated.

 

[eltf177]

Not enough steel to go around, so this will hamper tank and artillery production.

Not enough fuel to supply the vastly larger fleet plus the Heer and Luftwaffe, not to mention civilian needs.

Where are the crews to come from?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

From the 100m mark windfall that the German Navy received from scrapping the ships that it was required to scrap under the Versailles terms they set up NV Ingenieurskantoor voor Scheepsbouw (IvS) in the Netherlands as an incubator for their submarine research and design knowledge.

If you read my post throughly in the part you cut off by the ellipsis, you'd see I exempted submarines from the broader "can't keep it secret" problem of a naval buildup.

 

[vizzer]

The problem with diverting major resources to a German naval build up is it ends with French or Russian tanks driving up to the docks

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with making the Unmentionable Sea Mammal more feasible.

Seeing Avalanche Press' new WWII series "The Long War" has got me thinking about the Plan Z ships. In OTL, Admiral Raeder's grand fleet remained a dream, but what would have been necessary for it to have been realized?

The Author and Historian Antony Preston wrote of the Z plan "In the word of a British naval architect, the designers seemed intent on avoiding service on the Eastern Front by showing how busy they were and that these projects should not be taken seriously"

 

[Dorknought]

Ships H and J would be ready until late 1944 based on size and construction rates for S&G and B&T. At 240m RM each the H class were about 800 Tiger tanks (300,000 RM).

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Author and Historian Antony Preston wrote of the Z plan "In the word of a British naval architect, the designers seemed intent on avoiding service on the Eastern Front by showing how busy they were and that these projects should not be taken seriously"

I remember that quote. I think it came from Battleships 1856-1977. However, IIRC he was referring to the later designs for the H class battleships.

OTOH, IIRC from that book he also wrote that the Kriegsmarine would still have been outnumbered by the Royal Navy and that the British were outbuilding them in all types of warships except submarines. Again IIRC from that book or his Encyclopaedia of the Navies of World War II he wrote that had Plan Z been completed the struggle would have been longer and harder, but the British would still have won.

 

[CraigD6]

If we are talking about Plan Z as actually conceived in 1938, then it was planned to be mostly in place before a war that was expected to start in the late 1940's (1948 I believe was originally considered a likely start point), not something that was being done during a war. Hitler assured the Kriegsmarine that they had a decade, and that was what Plan Z took into account. Those ships should, according to the plan, have been built and in service before Hitler launched any invasions. In that case there is no need to think about an armistice after Dunkirk or French or Russian interventions, because there wouldn't have been the war in 1939 unless either the WAllies or Russia started it. Similarly, only in the later years of WWII would being involved in Plan Z have been a way of avoiding the Eastern Front, when the plan was first formulated it would have been just another part of the German rearmament; keeping the plan going once war had started would have been a way of looking busy, but it wasn't why Plan Z was created in the first place. By then the plan, fanciful as it was in the 1938, was simply impossible. It is doubtful if Germany could have found the resources of men and material before the war started, let alone once it had and they were fighting on 2 fronts. The fact that the war started in 1939, when the plan had barely even been put together, meant that it remained a paper exercise.

If the plan had been given the time to come to fruition then it could not have been kept secret and the signatories of the Washington Naval Treaty would have been alarmed and started to increase their building of modern vessels, but they would have been playing catch up slightly. The Royal Navy would have still had the edge in most classes of vessel, and more importantly the experience. German crews, even given much of the decade Hitler had promised, would not have been able to draw on the experiences that the RN or French could.

 

[Goku_San]

I don't see how Germany could have build this fleet with their limited steel production. Germany produced between 2.2 and 2.7 million tons of different (mainly Thomas-steel and Martin/Siemens-steel; they were switching to electric furnaces tho) steels a month. And while this sounds like much, because Germany's economy was one of the largest in the world, you have to keep in mind that roughly between 1.0 to 1.2 million tons were consumed by the civilian sector. That leaves only 1.0-1.5 million tons for the entire Wehrmachtv - with the Heer obviously being the largest consumer. There were, during the war, plans to expand the steelmills up to 4 million tons a month capacity, but this was never carried out and from '43 onwards most construction capacity was used to repair the damage caused by airraids. A fleet of that size will consume something around 800,000 tons of high quality steel a month for years - not only for the ships, but the docks, the supplies, support equipment and other items necessary. That will put a huge drain on other more important projects, from rifles to tanks to ammo. To sum it up: Plan Z is a stupid resource sink with very little returns. Most of this fleet will be obsolete by 1946 - carriers were the kings of the sea by then.

 

[miketr]

An earlier end to the Treaty of Versailles and an earlier Anglo-German Naval Agreement (which happens in @miketr's Diesel Kriegsmarine thread) would have helped a lot too. IIRC the original Panzerschiffen D and E were laid down 18 months before being re-laid down as the Twins. Had D and E been laid down as the Twins in the first place that effectively brings Graff Zeppelin, Aircraft Carrier B, Bismarck, Tirpitz, the Hipper class and the first 30 Z boats forward 18 months also. Subsequent construction like the H class battleships is also started earlier so it's more feasible for the plan to be completed on time if the completion date is the same as OTL.

The British wouldn't be able to bring their OTL new construction programmes forward by 18 months because what they could do before the end of 1936 was still limited by the First London Naval Treaty. They would catch up in the medium to long term, but in the short term the naval balance would be more favourable or at least less unfavourable to Germany.

The Germans without other deltas will still face yard congestion issues. Also check dates for Z1 and Z2 they were laid down well before AGNA.

To be honest you need to move things up even more. In 1930 the German government settled on a naval program but was to distracted by domestic chaos to try it on international front. Have the von Papen or the short lived von Schleicher government open talks with the British and allow Hitler to finish program in 1933.

Problem is to get to Z program Hitler needs to break AGNA and he cant much sooner than he did. If he breaks AGNA before Munich Agreement the later becomes very difficult. So you can perhaps get the light cruisers but thats about it before WW2 kicks off. Difference is battleships and carriers are ready.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Not enough steel to go around, so this will hamper tank and artillery production.

Not enough fuel to supply the vastly larger fleet plus the Heer and Luftwaffe, not to mention civilian needs.

Where are the crews to come from?

On the subject of oil. This is the production of crude petroleum in Europe (excluding the British Isles), North Africa, Turkey and the Levant in Long Tons for the period 1932-69.

IOTL Austria's peak year was 1955 when 3.6 million long tons were produced and Germany was producing around 7.8 million long tons a year in the second half of the 1960s. Could it have been done in the 1930s and 40s if they knew the oil was there?