AHC:Make one of the Chinese warlord states survive until today.

Yuan Shikai's Empire of China was pretty much just a syphilis-infested, opium-fueled, sex-crazed madhouse rather than anything that could be sustained. It really only kept on going on Yuan Shikai's regime's momentum as he slipped further into syphilitic madness. And with stuff like the 21 demands, they already sorta tried to do stuff like that.
That's why we need a smarter Japan. If Japan sticks to 15 demands instead of 21 it probably doesn't trigger the ire of the western powers and doesn't kick the stool out from under Yuan Shikai's incredibly unstable regime. The moment a competent government comes along the consolidation starts, it behoves Japan to have the "legitimate" government to be so awful that the rest of the country won't back it, but not so weak that the other side topples it and becomes the new government.
 
Could Yunnan or the one that controlled Hainan seek to join the French empire? They'd work closely with French Indochina in the same way Nepal and Bhutan worked with the British Raj.

I also think that in an alternate timeline the Soviets could have occupied Manchuria and turned it into a puppet state. After the collapse of the USSR in the early 90's, Manchuria would stay communist, maintaining close relations with North Korea into the present day. It would be cool if they also forced traditional manchu script into their education system as a way to distance themselves from China culturally.

I suppose the POD here is that the soviets realize they can't trust mao, so they never give up Xinjiang or Manchuria. Perhaps this leads to Tibet seeking soviet protection as well, as they share a large border with Xinjiang.
 
Also, has anyone here played the Eight Years War of Resistance mod in HOI4? I strongly recommend it.
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I think for one warlord to survive without overt foreign backing, you need many warlord powers to survive if they are to withstand the forces of centralization.

- Japan takes a slightly less overtly militaristic stance in China starting in the 1920s, focusing more on trade and business.
- Chiang Kai-shek is sidelined when the continued existence of the Fengtian clique under Zhang Zuolin means that TTL's equivalent of the Central Plains War does not result in a clear victory for Nanjing.
- KMT Central has to share more power with warlords, especially those in the north. To check Zhang, Chiang has to allow folks like Li Zongren and other southern warlords a higher degree of autonomy.
- Sino-Soviet border war of early 1930s, plus expansion of communist guerrillas to the northwest and northeast moves Fengtian clique and other northern warlords into the Japanese camp
- Japanese run complex "gunboat diplomacy" in China, protecting business interests and helping warlords suppress radical Chinese nationalism.
- Fearing Soviet influence via CCP in China, Japanese team up with KMT and lesser warlords to push a conservative form of authoritarian patriotism, creating a significant ideological divide between affluent urbanites and poor peasantry. Meanwhile, economic development from 1930 to 1950 increases the bourgeois class.
- From 1950 to 1970, anger at the incompetent and corrupt Nanjing govt is leveraged by some local leaders with warlord connections to push for greater federalization of China. This is especially true in the south, where the inability of the central government to enforce Mandarin education means greater space for expression of local dialects.
- The gradual decline of Japan as a colonial power after 1950 forces the KMT to accede to more domestic and regional pressure.
- Around 1980, de facto federalization is achieved courtesy of massive demonstrations throughout Chinese cities, at the same time ushering in speedier democratic reforms.
- The central government, having struggled throughout the 20th century to unify the military and other state institutions, moves closer toward this goal, but finds it convenient to allow many aspects of the warlord system to remain, especially in the undeveloped countryside.
- By circa 2020, China is a mostly modern and developed country -- in the cities and coastal provinces, at least -- while "warlord" clans run things in the provinces. Most of their influence has since been merged with official institutions and corporate interests, but they retain, for instance, local militias and police. Much of contemporary politics in TTL China in 2020 centers on the struggle between "centralists" who want to bring better rule of law and social equality to these backwards regions (think something like US "flyover country," but with around 2 billion people in China) vs "regionalists" who are all about preserving regional political and cultural autonomy.
- "Centralists" are characterized by cosmopolitanism, focus on western-style legal reform, and using the power of the state to enforce civic nationalism. They often are either secular, believe in Christianity, or follow some modern version of Buddhism/Confucianism. They look up to the example of India, a country that following the end of British rule successfully ended most ethnic strife with significant legal and social reforms.
- "Regionalists" practice Daoism and folk religions that classy Chinese urbanities look down upon as barbaric feudalist superstition. The idea of "four or five generations under one roof" is seen as the ideal of social existence, polygamy remains common, and some places have not even given up footbinding. They are intensely skeptical of government efforts to implement reforms, such as forcing them to follow laws of commerce and educate the youth in Mandarin.

tl;dr: One Country, Many Systems.
 
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