I've read that GOP polls for Trump were rather good in 2011, even better perhaps than Romney's but that he eventually withdrew from the race for nomination. Could he have done otherwise?
Now, if he was to run in 2012, I'm aware that it would happen before the Ukrainian revolution, but would that minor or remove altogether the Russian factor (in the current sense)?
Even without the Russian meddling, I have no doubt (in the event, so unlikely it may be even in 2012, he beats Obama) that Trump's habits and overall behaviour would set the perfect atmosphere to get Obama back into the race by 2016 in this TL.