AHC: make New Guinea the most populous island in the world

[Zachariah]

One of the two is along the equator in the tropics, the other is way up in the temperate zone.

Not at all a "more or less the same" thing.

Sorry for bringing people back to the premise of the thread- which is an alternate history challenge, let's not forget- but remember that the most populous island in the world isn't Honshu, it's Java. Which has a larger population than the entirety of the Japanese archipelago. And New Guinea most certainly is in the same climate zone as Java. Wouldn't you agree?

 

[Essayist of History]

One of the two is along the equator in the tropics, the other is way up in the temperate zone.

Not at all a "more or less the same" thing.

It's not "way up" at all:

It's the reason why there are species of monkeys in Japan and why Japan has such infamously hot summers.

 

[Trotsky]

It's not "way up" at all:

It's the reason why there are species of monkeys in Japan and why Japan has such infamously hot summers.

What is this picture meant to show me? Other than that the southernmost of the Japanese Home Islands is still well to the north of the Tropic of Cancer, I mean.

 

[Essayist of History]

What is this picture meant to show me? Other than that the southernmost of the Japanese Home Islands is still well to the north of the Tropic of Cancer, I mean.

That you can see clearly that Japan is very close to the tropic of cancer, contrary to your idea that it's "way up" from tropical climate zones. Compare that to Greenland, which the other user tried to use as an example to say that New Guinea can't reach 100 million people, which is indeed very high from both tropical zones.

 

[Sol Zagato]

Highlands everywhere in the world tend to be less populated.

Tropical highlands are often more populated than the adjoining lowlands, even moreso historically.

REF: East African highlands vs lowlands.
Ethiopian highlands vs lowlands
The New Guinea highlands (you know, the subject of this thread? You should know about it) vs lowlands

South America pre-malaria + yellow fever didn't follow that dynamic, but after the Colombian Exchange, the Amazonian civilization was erased so thoroughly it became a myth.

 

[Flashman]

Highlands everywhere in the world tend to be less populated. This is not something unique to tropical highlands.

The highlands are more populated in New Guinea

 

[Essayist of History]

The highlands are more populated in New Guinea

Sorry, I misread him as "why do you think the highlands are less populated".

 

[Trotsky]

That you can see clearly that Japan is very close to the tropic of cancer, contrary to your idea that it's "way up" from tropical climate zones. Compare that to Greenland, which the other user tried to use as an example to say that New Guinea can't reach 100 million people, which is indeed very high from both tropical zones.

The northernmost limit of the tropics is the Tropic of Cancer, which is at 23 degrees north latitude. Kyushu, the southernmost of the main Japanese islands, is ten degrees further north at 33 degrees north. Same latitude as Atlanta, in the United States. Are you going to tell me that Atlanta is "more or less the same" as, say, Port Moresby on the Coral Sea?

 

[Essayist of History]

The northernmost limit of the tropics is the Tropic of Cancer, which is at 23 degrees north latitude. Kyushu, the southernmost of the main Japanese islands, is ten degrees further north at 33 degrees north. Same latitude as Atlanta, in the United States. Are you going to tell me that Atlanta is "more or less the same" as, say, Port Moresby on the Coral Sea?

Yes.

 

[mosodake]

Food production the main reason is why New Guinea never got off the ground.

Papuans initially colonized the island and remain in the Highland areas (40,000BC or so). Austronesians came later on and did not expand into the higher altitude areas, remaining in lower altitudes and along the coasts (1600 BC or so). Dogs introduced by the Austronesians helped with hunting of native animals but also caused several species to go extinct.

Lack of food crops until the introduction of them in the last five hundred years plus lack of domesticated animals limited the growth of population. The peoples of New Guinea mainly raised non-cereal foods such as taro, yams, bananas, and sweet potatoes. Some of these plants would not grow in certain regions of the island. For example, yams were mainly a Highland crop, they also grew faster than taro which did well in other areas. Without across the board fertile soil, the soil would not support larger populations like other geographical areas like the Nile Valley, Fertile Crescent, China or Japan. Plus with the mountainous terrain, the high rainfall (annual 79 to 197 inches in the Highlands) and clearing forest for crops, resulted in erosion and loss of fertile soils. Look how quickly cleared regions of the Amazon lose fertility, thus having farmers there move on and clear more forest land. The same thing happens in New Guinea.

I don't think a lack of food crops explains the whole story. Austronesians had rice, after all, and presumably rice cultivation would have taken off if the island was suitable. Instead, from approximately the Wallace line eastwards, rice plays a diminishing role as a staple carbohydrate and sago becomes increasingly important with sago being the dominant carbohydrate source on New Guinea's eastern side, IIRC. This suggests to me that there is something more than a simple lack of higher-yielding crops since sago is also a major staple in much of Borneo where rice cultivation is difficult.

It's not "way up" at all:

It's the reason why there are species of monkeys in Japan and why Japan has such infamously hot summers.

Taiwan straddles the Tropic of Cancer and the climate is noticeably different between the northern and southern ends of the island, 245 miles apart. How could Japan (assuming you're referring to Honshu) and New Guinea have similar climates when one is a few thousand miles north of the other? The fact that Japan experiences winter makes an enormous difference in the crops they can grow, disease pressures for both plants and animals (and people), and the relative abundance of food during the year.

 

[Trotsky]

Yes.

Okay, let's expand on this. Are Detroit and Chicago, roughly ten degrees further north, the same as Atlanta? Which you seem to think is the same as Port Moresby.

edit: Detroit and Chicago are btw just south of the line of latitude that the largest city in Hokkaido (that's in Japan) is on.

 

[Zachariah]

That's at odds with reality. Not just a little, but completely. All else equal, there will be more human pathogens in the tropical climates. Why exactly do you think the New Guinea highlands had high population density while the lowlands didn't?

Tropical highlands are often more populated than the adjoining lowlands, even moreso historically.

REF: East African highlands vs lowlands.
Ethiopian highlands vs lowlands
The New Guinea highlands (you know, the subject of this thread? You should know about it) vs lowlands

South America pre-malaria + yellow fever didn't follow that dynamic, but after the Colombian Exchange, the Amazonian civilization was erased so thoroughly it became a myth.

Does this preclude New Guinea having a higher population though, any more than it does on other similarly mountainous islands in the same region? Know I keep harking back to Java, but still, look at the population density there:

Excluding the port city of Jakarta (which was established as Sunda Kelapa, as a trading port to serve the historical capital of the Sunda Kingdom, inland and upstream from it), most of Java's population has always been mostly in the highlands as well. Though Surabaya's a notable exception to this; located in the estuary of the Brantas River, Java's second longest river, which provided long-distance trade and communication, and supported the center of the Kingdom of Janggala. And there are any number of rivers on New Guinea which are longer, and could facilitate longer-distance trade and communication there, potentially supporting the centers of larger kingdoms...

 

[Sol Zagato]

Does this preclude New Guinea having a higher population though, any more than it does on other similarly mountainous islands in the same region? Know I keep harking back to Java, but still, look at the population density there:

Excluding the port city of Jakarta (which was established as Sunda Kelapa, as a trading port to serve the historical capital of the Sunda Kingdom, inland and upstream from it), most of Java's population has always been mostly in the highlands as well. Though Surabaya's a notable exception to this; located in the estuary of the Brantas River, Java's second longest river, which provided long-distance trade and communication, and supported the center of the Kingdom of Janggala. And there are any number of rivers on New Guinea which are longer, and could facilitate longer-distance trade and communication there, potentially supporting the centers of larger kingdoms...

That's the density now. After a fair bit of infrastructure and public health knowhow. 1Kya, IIRC, Java was nothing special.

I'm saying IF lowland New Guinea is fertile (how's the soil acidity and Aluminum content?) you could eventually populate it.

 

[Wolttaire]

What do we have a sea faring like the polysaen arrive at Guinean and being with them huge amount of new animals and crops creating new hybrid culture where they land

 

[Vuu]

Or whoever starts the industrial and scientific revolution. They aren't going to be doing it.

Really, poor form on your part.

This is literally what happened in most high-productivity tropical disease zones. Foreign disease control and/or agriculture techniques were required for the population to boom.

Exactly, what I said in my post "most of these weren't so populated until very recently". You need a tree that only grows in America to treat malaria, and the lowlands are malaric af. But that can be taken care of by austronesians if they ever stop being so fragmented and genuinely try to form a state

But New Guinea compared to Java seems to be more like Sumatra - has a "spine" of volcanic mountains, and in the lower areas the fertilizing ash is quickly washed away

Still can support more than Java, but less density

 

[Lord High Executioner]

I know this is a tangent and the discussion has moved on, but...
*looks out through window at what is either plains or rolling hills*

the iciest region of Europe separated also into isolated territories and cut from the rest of the continent by Europe's largest mountain range

does not actually describe Scandinavia,the Nordic countries or, especially, Normandy, which is where the Norse-descendants who
ended up in Sicily and Jerusalem lived.
It could arguably be said to describe parts of Norway, but that is the western side of the peninsula, meaning the mountains block
easy access to the eastern part of the peninsula far more than they block the sea routes to western Europe.
Denmark, of course, is actually attached to the continent and its highest mountain is 147 meters high.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

This is ridiculous. New Guinea is double the size of the whole of Japan. It can easily be the most populous island today. Moreover, one can also point out to drastic growths in population. See the United States, which grew 30 times its population in just 242 years.

The growth of New Guinea's population can be very easy in fact. Just have New Guineans establish more commercial tides with India, Australia and Polynesia, introduce crops earlier and probably engage in military expansionism or colonialism. This can easily be done in the 9,000 year time span given by the OP.

Explain to me, how and why Hindu merchants wish to travel to this island whenever Java is closer? Which glorious resources do they hold to require such travel at an early date.

 

[TRH]

Explain to me, how and why Hindu merchants wish to travel to this island whenever Java is closer? Which glorious resources do they hold to require such travel at an early date.

This isn't my area of expertise, but I see that New Guinea has gold. Don't know how early it would be feasible to extract it, though.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

This isn't my area of expertise, but I see that New Guinea has gold. Don't know how early it would be feasible to extract it, though.

Well this is a legitimate question. What resources do they have to offer to garner trade. It is not in tune with major trading routes originating in East Asia or India toward the Mid East. Further, in a hypothetical trade movement from Europe toward east Asia, the routes would almost never cross ways with this region. An example, perhaps some trade route originating in the lands of Peru or Australia, could provide the needed sea route.