Around the 80s some people feared that Japan, if you extrapolate the Japanese economic growth rates at the time, would at some point surpass the US economically and maybe even, after they surpassed the US economically, surpass the US in terms of global influence. Make that actually happen. Also, Japan has to be a western style democracy and without any (official) colonies. Preferably use a POD somewhere after WWII so that all in all the world doesn't change too drasticly, but as long as they remain a western democracy and without an (official) empire just do what you want.
It seems the fear of Japan overtaking the American economy was limited to the late 1980s, when Japan was in the middle of an asset price bubble that burst in the early 90s and led to the "Lost Decade". This was a consequence of the neoliberal turn in policy and the increasing financialization of the economy. Only in nominal GDP did Japan ever come close.
Demographics are just not in Japan's favor - it looks like Japan peaked at half of the US's population in the 1950-90 period. Whereas both native populations have a birth rate well below replacement, the US has supplemented with millions of immigrants a year. I'd be hard pressed to imagine a scenario where the GDP per capita of Japan is twice that of America with a post-WW2 POD.
A pre-WW2 divergence would be easier, obviously - if Japan were to retain Taiwan and maybe Korea, they would be integrated enough to be part of the metropole and that would another 20-60+ million, which would certainly help... Likewise if the post-WW2 American economic dominance is butterflied, but...
Demographics are just not in Japan's favor - it looks like Japan peaked at half of the US's population in the 1950-90 period. Whereas both native populations have a birth rate well below replacement, the US has supplemented with millions of immigrants a year. I'd be hard pressed to imagine a scenario where the GDP per capita of Japan is twice that of America with a post-WW2 POD.
A pre-WW2 divergence would be easier, obviously - if Japan were to retain Taiwan and maybe Korea, they would be integrated enough to be part of the metropole and that would another 20-60+ million, which would certainly help... Likewise if the post-WW2 American economic dominance is butterflied, but...
Without making any major changes, I don't see Japanese GDP per capita being more than twice the size of the US. Maybe with better demographics, Japan could reach 150 million while the US might have a worse 1990's, without the immigration boom, reaching 300 million people or so by now.
In this scenario, US and Japan economies would be roughly similar, but I don't think that's enough for Japan to surpass the US in terms of global influence. That would require a big Japanese lead.
In this scenario, US and Japan economies would be roughly similar, but I don't think that's enough for Japan to surpass the US in terms of global influence. That would require a big Japanese lead.
I dunno...OK, I'm going off stuff from earlier in the 80s, but a lot of it seemed primarily about the worry of Japanese corporations spreading everywhere rather than the Japanese economy overtaking America. Like, most stuff I've read seemed to be like 'Japanese corporations are gaining influence everywhere'/'Japanese corporations are very closely tied to the government'/'The Japanese government will have a controlling stake in our country'.
Deleted member 109224
Post-WW2? That's hard. Maybe if they're allowed to keep Taiwan and the US forces them to accept large numbers of refugees, that could mean a big enough overall population to be comparable to the US. Taiwan gets you 24m. The Indochina Refugee Crisis resulted in 4m people going overseas (whose overall population is likely double today including descendants), so perhaps they go to Japan. 128m + 24m + 8m = 160m people.
But even with such a larger population, you still need to deal with the stagnant economy. Japanese GDP Per Capita in real terms has been stagnant for 30 years, more or less. If you had merely 1% growth annually on average since 1990, Japan's economy would be a third larger today (in contrast, US average GDP growth from 1948 to 2020 was 3.18%). If 2%, then it'd be 80% larger. If 2.5%, it'd be 110% larger.
But even with such a larger population, you still need to deal with the stagnant economy. Japanese GDP Per Capita in real terms has been stagnant for 30 years, more or less. If you had merely 1% growth annually on average since 1990, Japan's economy would be a third larger today (in contrast, US average GDP growth from 1948 to 2020 was 3.18%). If 2%, then it'd be 80% larger. If 2.5%, it'd be 110% larger.
Yeah even with the trinity of whole korea, taiwan and Home islands would not be enough, but avoiding the lost decades and japan own stagnation is far better some measure of economical size.
Deleted member 109224
Honestly, keeping Korea be a net harm. Korea seems like it'd become an insurgent mess eventually under Japanese rule, whereas Taiwan seemed more or less content.
Yeah but just considering even keeping that trinity might not be enough but get it closer. Yeah Korea would be a mess to put it midly
I wouldn't say it's stagnant. Aside the 2008-2009 crisis, it's at a decent 1%: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=JP. And before the mid-1990's, an average of 4%.
Post WWII it is very hard. Honestly the easiest way isn't to make Japan better but to make the USA worse. Is there a non-nuclear way to make America significantly worse economically from 1945 to the present? I can't think of one that will damage America enough that Japan will not get damaged as well in the age on interconnected economies. After all, gotta sell those Toyotas and Sonys somewhere.
The only way to get Japanese GDP per capita several times that of American GDP per capita is to increase productivity via technology.
However, that is a non starter, since that sort of advanced Japanese technology is going to filter out, allowing America to adopt said technology and narrow the gap. Sure, Japan could embargo the export of everything but consumer goods to stop that tech proliferation, but good luck getting the world to buy $15 trillion+ worth of Japanese consumer goods at 2020 prices.
However, that is a non starter, since that sort of advanced Japanese technology is going to filter out, allowing America to adopt said technology and narrow the gap. Sure, Japan could embargo the export of everything but consumer goods to stop that tech proliferation, but good luck getting the world to buy $15 trillion+ worth of Japanese consumer goods at 2020 prices.
Would Japan have been the first country to have been the world's economic super-power but not also a military one?
A limited nuclear exchange between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 80s kills a few million Americans — somehow with miraculous luck, Japan survives unscathed— and while worldwide economic collapse occurs, Japan stands as the preeminent economic power.
Is it implausible? Certainly. This is the only way you are getting a Japan with a larger economy than the United States without a colonial empire, however.
The population advantages in favor of the US is just too big to overcome...
Is it implausible? Certainly. This is the only way you are getting a Japan with a larger economy than the United States without a colonial empire, however.
The population advantages in favor of the US is just too big to overcome...
I wouldn't say achieving this is completely impossible though it would be very, very difficult. There are ways to close the gap somewhat though.
If you have the POD at some point during the occupation period, that would left about 70 years or so to change things which is quite a lot. There are probably policy choices on both sides of the Pacific which countries could implement to help to close the gap, without fully screwing the US or wanking Japan. Lots of smaller changes along the way, in addition to few bigger ones probably. One example are some regulations regarding the Japanese telecommunication industries which made the internet more expensive than in may other countries, probably also affecting the level of innovation in the industry. And then you can have banking reforms to make the sector much healthier and maybe some sort reform to lower housing prices and things like that. With a benefit of hindsight, you probably could do a long list of things Japan could have done right and the US could have done badly.
In the case of Japan immigration would probably help. It's not like Japan of 1945 is somehow fundamentally opposed to immigration in any different way than many European countries. There are quite few European countries with large immigrant populations which really didn't seem like an obvious targets for immigration in 1945. You probably could come up with a scenario where societal, cultural and economic trends go differently in Japan during the post-war era and by the time this TL reaces 2020 Japan has millions of immigrants. And you could in reverse make the US more hostile to immigration and slow down the growth of its working-age population.
If you have the POD at some point during the occupation period, that would left about 70 years or so to change things which is quite a lot. There are probably policy choices on both sides of the Pacific which countries could implement to help to close the gap, without fully screwing the US or wanking Japan. Lots of smaller changes along the way, in addition to few bigger ones probably. One example are some regulations regarding the Japanese telecommunication industries which made the internet more expensive than in may other countries, probably also affecting the level of innovation in the industry. And then you can have banking reforms to make the sector much healthier and maybe some sort reform to lower housing prices and things like that. With a benefit of hindsight, you probably could do a long list of things Japan could have done right and the US could have done badly.
In the case of Japan immigration would probably help. It's not like Japan of 1945 is somehow fundamentally opposed to immigration in any different way than many European countries. There are quite few European countries with large immigrant populations which really didn't seem like an obvious targets for immigration in 1945. You probably could come up with a scenario where societal, cultural and economic trends go differently in Japan during the post-war era and by the time this TL reaces 2020 Japan has millions of immigrants. And you could in reverse make the US more hostile to immigration and slow down the growth of its working-age population.
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Viola
Banned
What is a "Socialist", and how does that results in a weaker US?
Are the United States supposed to elect a full blown Soviet-style Communist? That would lead to a weaker US, but electing something like that is going to be a massive struggle.
A "Socialist" that is more realistically electable in the US would just be a guy who is in favour of European-style welfare, but I don't see how that leads to a weakening of the US globally on its own.
True, dat, Viola.
In the US the likes of Christian Democrats might (still) be regarded as "socialist". As for juxtaposing a US weakened by socialism with respect to Japan...well that too is a problematic case to make. Japan's corporate culture approaches what many USAmericans think of as socialism as well.
No, socialism won't kill the USA or weaken it. Its lawyer-ridden business culture just might kill it altogether. There's a joke that there are more sumo wrestlers in Japan than there are of lawyers.