AHC: Make Japan win the Pacific War.

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This thread reminds me of Admiral Yamamoto who opposed joining the axis and declaring war on America since it was unwinnable. Ironically, he was the architect of the Pearl Harbor attack.

Before the Emperor green lighted a declaration of war against the US, he turned to Yamamoto and asked Japan could be victorious. As he cannot tell the Emperor the truth (he would have to commit suicide if he did), Yamamoto replied his navy would rule the Pacific for two years.

Which is exactly what happened, really.
 
This isn't about competence, but about internal opposition to the state that enemies can use against you. It took even the USSR's feared state apparatus ages to kill the resistance in Ukraine that popped up in WW2.
Where's the Fifth Column going to come from?
 
This isn't about competence, but about internal opposition to the state that enemies can use against you. It took even the USSR's feared state apparatus ages to kill the resistance in Ukraine that popped up in WW2.

That happens when you deliberately starve people. Not the case in the US. Badly as the US treated minorities it wasn't nearly as bad as the USSR did.

Where's the Fifth Column going to come from?
Exactly, every country has internal opposition but for well developed states like the US they are handled fine. You aren't going to have it come out of thin air.
 

nbcman

Donor
This thread reminds me of Admiral Yamamoto who opposed joining the axis and declaring war on America since it was unwinnable. Ironically, he was the architect of the Pearl Harbor attack.

Before the Emperor green lighted a declaration of war against the US, he turned to Yamamoto and asked Japan could be victorious. As he cannot tell the Emperor the truth (he would have to commit suicide if he did), Yamamoto replied his navy would rule the Pacific for two years.

Which is exactly what happened, really.
Two years? What happened really was the IJN had the strategic initiative for about 6 months until their defeat at Midway. In fact, Yamamoto only said that he would be able to 'run wild considerably' for 6 months to a year and that he had no confidence in the second year. This is as noted in a discussion between the Admiral and Prince Konoye in 1940.

If I am told to fight regardless of the consequences, I shall run wild considerably for the first six months or a year, but I have utterly no confidence for the second and third years. . . . Now that the situation has come to this pass [the Tripartite Pact] I hope you will endeavor for avoidance of an American-Japanese war.
Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, Commander in Chief, Japanese Combined Fleet, to Prince Konoye, October 1940
 
Without nuclear weapons and with the US engaged in the war just like it did (at least in the beginning). You can do whatever you want with Hitler and the European Allies, including Soviets.

The Soviet Operation Mars and Uranus both succeed in late 1942, with 60 German divisions encircled and annihilated. The military debacle has gutted the German front and the war is lost, but Hitler will not admit defeat. Hitler is therefore assassinated in the resulting power struggle in Berlin, and the coalition that emerges throws its lot in with Stalin. The Red Army in 1943 advances to Paris and in 1944 launches an attack on Japan in the Far East, in Korean, Manchuria and threatening to advance into China proper. Washington concludes that a communist Europe is a menace to its national security and therefore offers Japan a peace treaty based on Japan keeping Indochina and its empire in Korea and Manchuria, but returning other ill-gotten gains. Japan will not make peace with the USSR, and the US will supply it with mountains of equipment (tanks, etc.) in order that the IJA can neutralise the Soviets.

Far fetched? Sure...but any Japanese victory (or not-defeat) in WW2 was going to be a statistical outlier.
 
Two years? What happened really was the IJN had the strategic initiative for about 6 months until their defeat at Midway. In fact, Yamamoto only said that he would be able to 'run wild considerably' for 6 months to a year and that he had no confidence in the second year. This is as noted in a discussion between the Admiral and Prince Konoye in 1940.

Interesting divergence. In all Japanese history books (and every child knows that) the famous quote goes:
「是非私にやれと言われれば一年や一年半は存分に暴れて御覧にいれます」
"If you give me the order, I will be unstoppable and run amok for one year or one year and a half."
Highly google-able, and also the quote found on Japanese Wikipedia
 
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Not necessarily loyalty to Japan, but willingness to stick it to the U.S.

And yet this didn't happen OTL Despite the miserable treatment of minorities in the USA in general and the appalling treatment of Japanese-Americans in particular these groups didn't launch any campaign of terrorism against the USA, what exactly is it that Japan offers to change that?
 
Expectations don't always meet reality. Eg The UK's enemies expected India to both rise up against, or provide an unlimited army for the British depending upon what the enemies were smoking that day.

I don't blame any war time nation for getting leery about immigrants from hostile nations. It seems obvious, it is what you would hope your own expats would do, and it doesn't take many bad apples to make the whole barrel look bad. It is not hard to provide a real world example that we are all living through right now.

How you deal with it is problematic. The competent people are off doing important work so the administrators are usually second rate. No one cares because it appeals to existing biases. It is a disaster waiting to happen. And if you don't do something and one of the bad apples acts... And in a full wartime situation when things are that much more tense? It is a no win situation for everybody.
 

SsgtC

Banned
And yet this didn't happen OTL Despite the miserable treatment of minorities in the USA in general and the appalling treatment of Japanese-Americans in particular these groups didn't launch any campaign of terrorism against the USA, what exactly is it that Japan offers to change that?
In fact, just the opposite occurred. With many, many Japanese Americans joining the military to fight and prove their loyalty to the United States.
 
I love how most these proposals either require the Americans to drink lead paint and either A: ignore their pre-war plans entirely or B: be so fricking blind to the intentions of the Japanese that one would think the US is fighting a complete unknown rather than a competitor for control of the Pacific she has been facing for over 30 years or C: Requires Japanese omnipotence or D: the US backing the Japanese to fight the Soviets because reasons
 
Hitler is therefore assassinated in the resulting power struggle in Berlin, and the coalition that emerges throws its lot in with Stalin.

Given the vehement anti-communism amongst all the anti-Nazis groups with any shot at power, the last thing they'd do is try to throw in with Stalin.

I love how most these proposals either require the Americans to drink lead paint and either A: ignore their pre-war plans entirely or B: be so fricking blind to the intentions of the Japanese that one would think the US is fighting a complete unknown rather than a competitor for control of the Pacific she has been facing for over 30 years or C: Requires Japanese omnipotence or D: the US backing the Japanese to fight the Soviets because reasons

Pretty much. Mind you, (A) isn't inconceivable like the others are. Although the Navy planners had clearly identified that a dash to base out of the Philippines would be suicidal, MacArthur had convinced the Army otherwise and it is possible that the Army screaming for help to Washington long and loud enough could have led to the Navy being arm twisted into making a very bad play. Even within the Navy, there were those who chafed at the restrictions against offensive operations and would have been willing to attempt something more ambitious if the opportunity arose. Additionally, if America had been forced to declare war on Japan, and Japan had then sat back and done nothing (beyond conquering the Dutch and British possessions along with a blockade of the Phillipines), America's pre-war plan - to retreat back across the ocean to safety - might have come off as ridiculous and cowardly. If the US Army remained sitting securely in the Philippines there would definitely have been great pressure to move the fleet forward to Manila and try to take the fight to Japan directly now, not in two or three years when the fleet was fully ready.

So the Navy planners definitely identified the course of action that could lead them to their doom, but they could have been overruled had events conspired against them. Of course, not attacking the Philippines would have taken balls of steel on the part of the Japanese. It would have been a very gutsy play for them to leave seemingly so obvious a dagger aimed at the throat of their shipping lanes. In fact America actually had very few means to actually attack those sea lanes in 1941, nor would it have been able to improve the situation much in 1942... but the Japanese didn't know that and weren't inclined to think in that manner (using the Phillipines and even the homeland as bait to lure in the enemy) in any event.
 
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Sell it as bait to bring the USN into that grand slug fest that they wanted. Find a reason to make Pearl Harbor look impractical and the Japanese need another grand opening play.

I could imagine some nail biting tension as the Japanese have to wait and wait and wait while the USN gets more and more political pressure.
 
A: ignore their pre-war plans entirely or
Miller's War Plan Orange shows that the Orange plan series were replaced by the 'Rainbow' (coalition plans) series. None of these anticipated that the PI or Singapore would fall. Gives the impression that the Japanese were underrated and regarded as 'Pacific Italians'.
 
Sell it as bait to bring the USN into that grand slug fest that they wanted. Find a reason to make Pearl Harbor look impractical and the Japanese need another grand opening play.

The question is: who in the Japanese command is clever enough to think of it and has enough weight to sell it against the objectors? Nagano seems to have thought of a similar scheme, as he proposed an attack against the Dutch while holding back against the Americans, but he was bullied into recanting such an idea by all the other senior officers of Combined Fleet including his nominal subordinates... one of whom was Yamamoto.

Miller's War Plan Orange shows that the Orange plan series were replaced by the 'Rainbow' (coalition plans) series. None of these anticipated that the PI or Singapore would fall. Gives the impression that the Japanese were underrated and regarded as 'Pacific Italians'.

But the Rainbow plans didn't at all change the core tenant that the USN had come to by the late-30s: that is ceding the Western and Central Pacific to the Japanese for the first one-two years while they build up an overwhelming fleet and the logistics train to support it.
 
I love how most these proposals either require the Americans to drink lead paint and either A: ignore their pre-war plans entirely or B: be so fricking blind to the intentions of the Japanese that one would think the US is fighting a complete unknown rather than a competitor for control of the Pacific she has been facing for over 30 years or C: Requires Japanese omnipotence or D: the US backing the Japanese to fight the Soviets because reasons

To be fair to pull this off you need near ASB levels of US incompetence or ASB levels of Japanese competence or both.
 
And yet this didn't happen OTL Despite the miserable treatment of minorities in the USA in general and the appalling treatment of Japanese-Americans in particular these groups didn't launch any campaign of terrorism against the USA, what exactly is it that Japan offers to change that?

Particularly since their friends and family are mostly in the US and they would be the ones to pay the price of a terrorist campaign.
 
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The question is: who in the Japanese command is clever enough to think of it and has enough weight to sell it against the objectors? Nagano seems to have thought of a similar scheme, as he proposed an attack against the Dutch while holding back against the Americans, but he was bullied into recanting such an idea by all the other senior officers of Combined Fleet including his nominal subordinates... one of whom was Yamamoto.

Wasn't the expectation that the USN would have to come moseying over to defend the Philippines? The Japanese attrit them on the way over, smash them south of Taiwan, then home in time for smoked sushi for breakfast. Playing to preconceived notions usually works.

Took me a minute to follow you there. Holding back against the Americans.

The challenge is whether or not to hit the Philippines. Put troops on the Philippines you have MacArthur screaming for help to apply pressure on the USN.

Don't hit the Philippines you have time to build up and sharpen that spear at the Japanese throat. But the Europeans are going to be screaming blue murder. All sorts of butterflies.
 
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